Prognostic factors associated with mortality risk and disease progression in 639 critically ill patients with COVID-19 in Europe: Initial report of the international RISC-19-ICU prospective observational cohort

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is associated with a high disease burden with 10% of confirmed cases progressing towards critical illness. Nevertheless, the disease course and predictors of mortality in critically ill patients are poorly understood. Methods: Following the critical developments in ICUs in regions experiencing early inception of the pandemic, the European-based, international RIsk Stratification in COVID-19 patients in the Intensive Care Unit (RISC-19-ICU) registry was created to provide near real-time assessment of patients developing critical illness due to COVID-19. Findings: As of April 22, 2020, 639 critically ill patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection were included in the RISC-19-ICU registry. Of these, 398 had deceased or been discharged from the ICU. ICU-mortality was 24%, median length of stay 12 (IQR, 5–21) days. ARDS was diagnosed in 74%, with a minimum P/F-ratio of 110 (IQR, 80–148). Prone positioning, ECCO2R, or ECMO were applied in 57%. Off-label therapies were prescribed in 265 (67%) patients, and 89% of all bloodstream infections were observed in this subgroup (n = 66; RR=3·2, 95% CI [1·7–6·0]). While PCT and IL-6 levels remained similar in ICU survivors and non-survivors throughout the ICU stay (p = 0·35, 0·34), CRP, creatinine, troponin, D-dimer, lactate, neutrophil count, P/F-ratio diverged within the first seven days (p<0·01). On a multivariable Cox proportional-hazard regression model at admission, creatinine, D-dimer, lactate, potassium, P/F-ratio, alveolar-arterial gradient, and ischemic heart disease were independently associated with ICU-mortality. Interpretation: The European RISC-19-ICU cohort demonstrates a moderate mortality of 24% in critically ill patients with COVID-19. Despite high ARDS severity, mechanical ventilation incidence was low and associated with more rescue therapies. In contrast to risk factors in hospitalized patients reported in other studies, the main mortality predictors in these critically ill patients were markers of oxygenation deficit, renal and microvascular dysfunction, and coagulatory activation. Elevated risk of bloodstream infections underscores the need to exercise caution with off-label therapies

Dynamics of disease characteristics and clinical management of critically ill COVID-19 patients over the time course of the pandemic: an analysis of the prospective, international, multicentre RISC-19-ICU registry.

BACKGROUND It remains elusive how the characteristics, the course of disease, the clinical management and the outcomes of critically ill COVID-19 patients admitted to intensive care units (ICU) worldwide have changed over the course of the pandemic. METHODS Prospective, observational registry constituted by 90 ICUs across 22 countries worldwide including patients with a laboratory-confirmed, critical presentation of COVID-19 requiring advanced organ support. Hierarchical, generalized linear mixed-effect models accounting for hospital and country variability were employed to analyse the continuous evolution of the studied variables over the pandemic. RESULTS Four thousand forty-one patients were included from March 2020 to September 2021. Over this period, the age of the admitted patients (62 [95% CI 60-63] years vs 64 [62-66] years, p < 0.001) and the severity of organ dysfunction at ICU admission decreased (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment 8.2 [7.6-9.0] vs 5.8 [5.3-6.4], p < 0.001) and increased, while more female patients (26 [23-29]% vs 41 [35-48]%, p < 0.001) were admitted. The time span between symptom onset and hospitalization as well as ICU admission became longer later in the pandemic (6.7 [6.2-7.2| days vs 9.7 [8.9-10.5] days, p < 0.001). The PaO2/FiO2 at admission was lower (132 [123-141] mmHg vs 101 [91-113] mmHg, p < 0.001) but showed faster improvements over the initial 5 days of ICU stay in late 2021 compared to early 2020 (34 [20-48] mmHg vs 70 [41-100] mmHg, p = 0.05). The number of patients treated with steroids and tocilizumab increased, while the use of therapeutic anticoagulation presented an inverse U-shaped behaviour over the course of the pandemic. The proportion of patients treated with high-flow oxygen (5 [4-7]% vs 20 [14-29], p < 0.001) and non-invasive mechanical ventilation (14 [11-18]% vs 24 [17-33]%, p < 0.001) throughout the pandemic increased concomitant to a decrease in invasive mechanical ventilation (82 [76-86]% vs 74 [64-82]%, p < 0.001). The ICU mortality (23 [19-26]% vs 17 [12-25]%, p < 0.001) and length of stay (14 [13-16] days vs 11 [10-13] days, p < 0.001) decreased over 19 months of the pandemic. CONCLUSION Characteristics and disease course of critically ill COVID-19 patients have continuously evolved, concomitant to the clinical management, throughout the pandemic leading to a younger, less severely ill ICU population with distinctly different clinical, pulmonary and inflammatory presentations than at the onset of the pandemic

Prognostic factors associated with mortality risk and disease progression in 639 critically ill patients with COVID-19 in Europe: Initial report of the international RISC-19-ICU prospective observational cohort

Background Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is associated with a high disease burden with 10% of confirmed cases progressing towards critical illness. Nevertheless, the disease course and predictors of mortality in critically ill patients are poorly understood. Methods Following the critical developments in ICUs in regions experiencing early inception of the pandemic, the European-based, international RIsk Stratification in COVID-19 patients in the Intensive Care Unit (RISC-19-ICU) registry was created to provide near real-time assessment of patients developing critical illness due to COVID-19. Findings As of April 22, 2020, 639 critically ill patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection were included in the RISC-19-ICU registry. Of these, 398 had deceased or been discharged from the ICU. ICU-mortality was 24%, median length of stay 12 (IQR, 5-21) days. ARDS was diagnosed in 74%, with a minimum P/F-ratio of 110 (IQR, 80-148). Prone positioning, ECCO2R, or ECMO were applied in 57%. Off-label therapies were prescribed in 265 (67%) patients, and 89% of all bloodstream infections were observed in this subgroup (n = 66; RR=3·2, 95% CI [1·7-6·0]). While PCT and IL-6 levels remained similar in ICU survivors and non-survivors throughout the ICU stay (p = 0·35, 0·34), CRP, creatinine, troponin, d-dimer, lactate, neutrophil count, P/F-ratio diverged within the first seven days (p<0·01). On a multivariable Cox proportional-hazard regression model at admission, creatinine, d-dimer, lactate, potassium, P/F-ratio, alveolar-arterial gradient, and ischemic heart disease were independently associated with ICU-mortality. Interpretation The European RISC-19-ICU cohort demonstrates a moderate mortality of 24% in critically ill patients with COVID-19. Despite high ARDS severity, mechanical ventilation incidence was low and associated with more rescue therapies. In contrast to risk factors in hospitalized patients reported in other studies, the main mortality predictors in these critically ill patients were markers of oxygenation deficit, renal and microvascular dysfunction, and coagulatory activation. Elevated risk of bloodstream infections underscores the need to exercise caution with off-label therapies

Probabilistic analysis of COVID-19 patients' individual length of stay in Swiss intensive care units.

RationaleThe COVID-19 pandemic induces considerable strain on intensive care unit resources.ObjectivesWe aim to provide early predictions of individual patients' intensive care unit length of stay, which might improve resource allocation and patient care during the on-going pandemic.MethodsWe developed a new semiparametric distributional index model depending on covariates which are available within 24h after intensive care unit admission. The model was trained on a large cohort of acute respiratory distress syndrome patients out of the Minimal Dataset of the Swiss Society of Intensive Care Medicine. Then, we predict individual length of stay of patients in the RISC-19-ICU registry.MeasurementsThe RISC-19-ICU Investigators for Switzerland collected data of 557 critically ill patients with COVID-19.Main resultsThe model gives probabilistically and marginally calibrated predictions which are more informative than the empirical length of stay distribution of the training data. However, marginal calibration was worse after approximately 20 days in the whole cohort and in different subgroups. Long staying COVID-19 patients have shorter length of stay than regular acute respiratory distress syndrome patients. We found differences in LoS with respect to age categories and gender but not in regions of Switzerland with different stress of intensive care unit resources.ConclusionA new probabilistic model permits calibrated and informative probabilistic prediction of LoS of individual patients with COVID-19. Long staying patients could be discovered early. The model may be the basis to simulate stochastic models for bed occupation in intensive care units under different casemix scenarios

How to Synchronize Longitudinal Patient Data With the Underlying Disease Progression: A Pilot Study Using the Biomarker CRP for Timing COVID-19

The continued digitalization of medicine has led to an increased availability of longitudinal patient data that allows the investigation of novel and known diseases in unprecedented detail. However, to accurately describe any underlying pathophysiology and allow inter-patient comparisons, individual patient trajectories have to be synchronized based on temporal markers. In this pilot study, we use longitudinal data from critically ill ICU COVID-19 patients to compare the commonly used alignment markers "onset of symptoms," "hospital admission," and "ICU admission" with a novel objective method based on the peak value of the inflammatory marker C-reactive protein (CRP). By applying our CRP-based method to align the progression of neutrophils and lymphocytes, we were able to define a pathophysiological window that improved mortality risk stratification in our COVID-19 patient cohort. Our data highlights that proper synchronization of longitudinal patient data is crucial for accurate interpatient comparisons and the definition of relevant subgroups. The use of objective temporal disease markers will facilitate both translational research efforts and multicenter trials

Prognostic factors associated with mortality risk and disease progression in 639 critically ill patients with COVID-19 in Europe: Initial report of the international RISC-19-ICU prospective observational cohort

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is associated with a high disease burden with 10% of confirmed cases progressing towards critical illness. Nevertheless, the disease course and predictors of mortality in critically ill patients are poorly understood. Methods: Following the critical developments in ICUs in regions experiencing early inception of the pandemic, the European-based, international RIsk Stratification in COVID-19 patients in the Intensive Care Unit (RISC-19-ICU) registry was created to provide near real-time assessment of patients developing critical illness due to COVID-19. Findings: As of April 22, 2020, 639 critically ill patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection were included in the RISC-19-ICU registry. Of these, 398 had deceased or been discharged from the ICU. ICU-mortality was 24%, median length of stay 12 (IQR, 5-21) days. ARDS was diagnosed in 74%, with a minimum P/F-ratio of 110 (IQR, 80-148). Prone positioning, ECCO2R, or ECMO were applied in 57%. Off-label therapies were prescribed in 265 (67%) patients, and 89% of all bloodstream infections were observed in this subgroup (n = 66; RR=3·2, 95% CI [1·7-6·0]). While PCT and IL-6 levels remained similar in ICU survivors and non-survivors throughout the ICU stay (p = 0·35, 0·34), CRP, creatinine, troponin, d-dimer, lactate, neutrophil count, P/F-ratio diverged within the first seven days (p&lt;0·01). On a multivariable Cox proportional-hazard regression model at admission, creatinine, d-dimer, lactate, potassium, P/F-ratio, alveolar-arterial gradient, and ischemic heart disease were independently associated with ICU-mortality. Interpretation: The European RISC-19-ICU cohort demonstrates a moderate mortality of 24% in critically ill patients with COVID-19. Despite high ARDS severity, mechanical ventilation incidence was low and associated with more rescue therapies. In contrast to risk factors in hospitalized patients reported in other studies, the main mortality predictors in these critically ill patients were markers of oxygenation deficit, renal and microvascular dysfunction, and coagulatory activation. Elevated risk of bloodstream infections underscores the need to exercise caution with off-label therapies

Near real-time observation reveals increased prevalence of young patients in the ICU during the emerging third SARS-CoV-2 wave in Switzerland

AIMS OF THE STUDY During the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the launch of a large-scale vaccination campaign and virus mutations have hinted at possible changes in transmissibility and the virulence affecting disease progression up to critical illness, and carry potential for future vaccination failure. To monitor disease development over time with respect to critically ill COVID-19 patients, we report near real-time prospective observational data from the RISC-19-ICU registry that indicate changed characteristics of critically ill patients admitted to Swiss intensive care units (ICUs) at the onset of a third pandemic wave. METHODS 1829 of 3344 critically ill COVID-19 patients enrolled in the international RISC-19-ICU registry as of 31 May 2021 were treated in Switzerland and were included in the present study. Of these, 1690 patients were admitted to the ICU before 1 February 2021 and were compared with 139 patients admitted during the emerging third pandemic wave RESULTS Third wave patients were a mean of 5.2 years (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.2–7.1) younger (median 66.0 years, interquartile range [IQR] 57.0–73.0 vs 62.0 years, IQR 54.5–68.0; p <0.0001) and had a higher body mass index than patients admitted in the previous pandemic period. They presented with lower SAPS II and APACHE II scores, less need for circulatory support and lower white blood cell counts at ICU admission. P/F ratio was similar, but a 14% increase in ventilatory ratio was observed over time (p = 0.03) CONCLUSION Near real-time registry data show that the latest COVID-19 patients admitted to ICUs in Switzerland at the onset of the third wave were on average 5 years younger, had a higher body mass index, and presented with lower physiological risk scores but a trend towards more severe lung failure. These differences may primarily be related to the ongoing nationwide vaccination campaign, but the possibility that changes in virus-host interactions may be a co-factor in the age shift and change in disease characteristics is cause for concern, and should be taken into account in the public health and vaccination strategy during the ongoing pandemic. (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04357275)ISSN:1424-7860ISSN:1424-399

Implications of early respiratory support strategies on disease progression in critical COVID-19: a matched subanalysis of the prospective RISC-19-ICU cohort.

BACKGROUND Uncertainty about the optimal respiratory support strategies in critically ill COVID-19 patients is widespread. While the risks and benefits of noninvasive techniques versus early invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) are intensely debated, actual evidence is lacking. We sought to assess the risks and benefits of different respiratory support strategies, employed in intensive care units during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic on intubation and intensive care unit (ICU) mortality rates. METHODS Subanalysis of a prospective, multinational registry of critically ill COVID-19 patients. Patients were subclassified into standard oxygen therapy ≥10 L/min (SOT), high-flow oxygen therapy (HFNC), noninvasive positive-pressure ventilation (NIV), and early IMV, according to the respiratory support strategy employed at the day of admission to ICU. Propensity score matching was performed to ensure comparability between groups. RESULTS Initially, 1421 patients were assessed for possible study inclusion. Of these, 351 patients (85 SOT, 87 HFNC, 87 NIV, and 92 IMV) remained eligible for full analysis after propensity score matching. 55% of patients initially receiving noninvasive respiratory support required IMV. The intubation rate was lower in patients initially ventilated with HFNC and NIV compared to those who received SOT (SOT: 64%, HFNC: 52%, NIV: 49%, p = 0.025). Compared to the other respiratory support strategies, NIV was associated with a higher overall ICU mortality (SOT: 18%, HFNC: 20%, NIV: 37%, IMV: 25%, p = 0.016). CONCLUSION In this cohort of critically ill patients with COVID-19, a trial of HFNC appeared to be the most balanced initial respiratory support strategy, given the reduced intubation rate and comparable ICU mortality rate. Nonetheless, considering the uncertainty and stress associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, SOT and early IMV represented safe initial respiratory support strategies. The presented findings, in agreement with classic ARDS literature, suggest that NIV should be avoided whenever possible due to the elevated ICU mortality risk

Dynamics of disease characteristics and clinical management of critically ill COVID-19 patients over the time course of the pandemic: an analysis of the prospective, international, multicentre RISC-19-ICU registry.

Background: It remains elusive how the characteristics, the course of disease, the clinical management and the outcomes of critically ill COVID-19 patients admitted to intensive care units (ICU) worldwide have changed over the course of the pandemic. Methods: Prospective, observational registry constituted by 90 ICUs across 22 countries worldwide including patients with a laboratory-confirmed, critical presentation of COVID-19 requiring advanced organ support. Hierarchical, generalized linear mixed-effect models accounting for hospital and country variability were employed to analyse the continuous evolution of the studied variables over the pandemic. Results: Four thousand forty-one patients were included from March 2020 to September 2021. Over this period, the age of the admitted patients (62 [95% CI 60-63] years vs 64 [62-66] years, p &lt; 0.001) and the severity of organ dysfunction at ICU admission decreased (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment 8.2 [7.6-9.0] vs 5.8 [5.3-6.4], p &lt; 0.001) and increased, while more female patients (26 [23-29]% vs 41 [35-48]%, p &lt; 0.001) were admitted. The time span between symptom onset and hospitalization as well as ICU admission became longer later in the pandemic (6.7 [6.2-7.2| days vs 9.7 [8.9-10.5] days, p &lt; 0.001). The PaO2/FiO2 at admission was lower (132 [123-141] mmHg vs 101 [91-113] mmHg, p &lt; 0.001) but showed faster improvements over the initial 5 days of ICU stay in late 2021 compared to early 2020 (34 [20-48] mmHg vs 70 [41-100] mmHg, p = 0.05). The number of patients treated with steroids and tocilizumab increased, while the use of therapeutic anticoagulation presented an inverse U-shaped behaviour over the course of the pandemic. The proportion of patients treated with high-flow oxygen (5 [4-7]% vs 20 [14-29], p &lt; 0.001) and non-invasive mechanical ventilation (14 [11-18]% vs 24 [17-33]%, p &lt; 0.001) throughout the pandemic increased concomitant to a decrease in invasive mechanical ventilation (82 [76-86]% vs 74 [64-82]%, p &lt; 0.001). The ICU mortality (23 [19-26]% vs 17 [12-25]%, p &lt; 0.001) and length of stay (14 [13-16] days vs 11 [10-13] days, p &lt; 0.001) decreased over 19 months of the pandemic. Conclusion: Characteristics and disease course of critically ill COVID-19 patients have continuously evolved, concomitant to the clinical management, throughout the pandemic leading to a younger, less severely ill ICU population with distinctly different clinical, pulmonary and inflammatory presentations than at the onset of the pandemic