A probabilistic analysis of argument cogency

This paper offers a probabilistic treatment of the conditions for argument cogency as endorsed in informal logic: acceptability, relevance, and sufficiency. Treating a natural language argument as a reason-claim-complex, our analysis identifies content features of defeasible argument on which the RSA conditions depend, namely: change in the commitment to the reason, the reason’s sensitivity and selectivity to the claim, one’s prior commitment to the claim, and the contextually determined thresholds of acceptability for reasons and for claims. Results contrast with, and may indeed serve to correct, the informal understanding and applications of the RSA criteria concerning their conceptual dependence, their function as update-thresholds, and their status as obligatory rather than permissive norms, but also show how these formal and informal normative approachs can in fact align

Magnetic Properties of Monomer and Dimer Tetrahedral VOx Entities Dispersed on Amorphous Silica-based Materials: Prediction of EPR Parameters from Relativistic DFT Calculations and Broken Symmetry Approach to Exchange Couplings

Molecular structures of the isolated tetrahedral oxovanadium(IV) and bridged μ-oxo-divanadium(IV) complexes hosted by the clusters mimicking surfaces of amorphous silica-based materials were investigated using density functional theory (DFT) calculations. Principal values of the g and A tensors for the monomer vanadyl species were obtained using the coupled-perturbed DFT level of theory and the spin–orbit mean-field approximation (SOMF). Magnetic exchange interaction for the μ-oxo bridged vanadium(IV) dimer was investigated within the broken symmetry approach. An antiferromagnetic coupling of the individual magnetic moments of the vanadium(IV) centers in the [VO–O–VO]2+ bridges was revealed and discussed in detail. The coupling explains pronounced decrease of the electron paramagnetic resonance signal (EPR) intensity, observed for the reduced VOx/SiO2 samples with the increasing coverage of vanadia, in terms of transformation of the paramagnetic monomer species into the dimers with S = 0 ground state

†Kenyaichthyidae fam. nov and †Kenyaichthys gen. nov - First Record of a Fossil Aplocheiloid Killifish (Teleostei, Cyprinodontiformes)

The extant Cyprinodontiformes (killifishes) with their two suborders Cyprinodontoidei and Aplocheiloidei represent a diverse and well-studied group of fishes. However, their fossil record is comparatively sparse and has so far yielded members of the Cyprinodontoidei only. Here we report on cyprinodontiform fossils from the upper Miocene Lukeino Formation in the Tugen Hills of the Central Rift Valley of Kenya, which represent the first fossil record of an aplocheiloid killifish. A total of 169 specimens - mostly extraordinarily well preserved and a sample of ten extant cyprinodontiform species were studied on the basis of morphometrics, meristics and osteology. A phylogenetic analysis using PAUP was also conducted for the fossils. Both the osteological data and the phylogenetic analysis provide strong evidence for the assignment of the fossils to the Aplocheiloidei, and justify the definition of the new family dagger Kenyaichthyidae, the new genus dagger Kenyaichthys and the new species dagger K. kipkechi sp. nov. The phylogenetic analysis unexpectedly places dagger Kenyaichthys gen. nov. in a sister relationship to the Rivulidae (a purely Neotropical group),a probable explanation might be lack of available synapomorphies for the Rivulidae, Nothobranchiidae and Aplocheilidae. The specimens of dagger K. kipkechi sp. nov. show several polymorphic characters and large overlap in meristic traits, which justifies their interpretation as a species flock in statu nascendi. Patterns of variation in neural and haemal spine dimensions in the caudal vertebrae of dagger Kenyaichthys gen. nov. and the extant species studied indicate that some previously suggested synapomorphies of the Cyprinodontoidei and Aplocheiloidei need to be revised

Your money and your life: risk attitudes over gains and losses

Prospect theory is the most influential descriptive alternative to the orthodox model of rational choice under risk and uncertainty, in terms of empirical analyses of some of its principal parameters and as a consideration in behavioural public policy. Yet the most distinctive implication of the theory – a fourfold predicted pattern of risk attitudes called the reflection effect – has been infrequently studied and with mixed results over money outcomes, and has never been completely tested over health outcomes. This article reports tests of reflection over money and health outcomes defined by life years gained from treatment. With open valuation exercises, the results suggest qualified support for the reflection effect over money outcomes and strong support over health outcomes. However, in pairwise choice questions, reflection was substantially ameliorated over life years, remaining significant only for treatments that offered short additional durations of life