Challenges of Profile Likelihood Evaluation in Multi-Dimensional SUSY Scans

Statistical inference of the fundamental parameters of supersymmetric theories is a challenging and active endeavor. Several sophisticated algorithms have been employed to this end. While Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and nested sampling techniques are geared towards Bayesian inference, they have also been used to estimate frequentist confidence intervals based on the profile likelihood ratio. We investigate the performance and appropriate configuration of MultiNest, a nested sampling based algorithm, when used for profile likelihood-based analyses both on toy models and on the parameter space of the Constrained MSSM. We find that while the standard configuration is appropriate for an accurate reconstruction of the Bayesian posterior, the profile likelihood is poorly approximated. We identify a more appropriate MultiNest configuration for profile likelihood analyses, which gives an excellent exploration of the profile likelihood (albeit at a larger computational cost), including the identification of the global maximum likelihood value. We conclude that with the appropriate configuration MultiNest is a suitable tool for profile likelihood studies, indicating previous claims to the contrary are not well founded.Comment: 21 pages, 9 figures, 1 table; minor changes following referee report. Matches version accepted by JHE

Influenza A Gradual and Epochal Evolution: Insights from Simple Models

The recurrence of influenza A epidemics has originally been explained by a “continuous antigenic drift” scenario. Recently, it has been shown that if genetic drift is gradual, the evolution of influenza A main antigen, the haemagglutinin, is punctuated. As a consequence, it has been suggested that influenza A dynamics at the population level should be approximated by a serial model. Here, simple models are used to test whether a serial model requires gradual antigenic drift within groups of strains with the same antigenic properties (antigenic clusters). We compare the effect of status based and history based frameworks and the influence of reduced susceptibility and infectivity assumptions on the transient dynamics of antigenic clusters. Our results reveal that the replacement of a resident antigenic cluster by a mutant cluster, as observed in data, is reproduced only by the status based model integrating the reduced infectivity assumption. This combination of assumptions is useful to overcome the otherwise extremely high model dimensionality of models incorporating many strains, but relies on a biological hypothesis not obviously satisfied. Our findings finally suggest the dynamical importance of gradual antigenic drift even in the presence of punctuated immune escape. A more regular renewal of susceptible pool than the one implemented in a serial model should be part of a minimal theory for influenza at the population level

Equilibrium configurations of two charged masses in General Relativity

An asymptotically flat static solution of Einstein-Maxwell equations which describes the field of two non-extreme Reissner - Nordstr\"om sources in equilibrium is presented. It is expressed in terms of physical parameters of the sources (their masses, charges and separating distance). Very simple analytical forms were found for the solution as well as for the equilibrium condition which guarantees the absence of any struts on the symmetry axis. This condition shows that the equilibrium is not possible for two black holes or for two naked singularities. However, in the case when one of the sources is a black hole and another one is a naked singularity, the equilibrium is possible at some distance separating the sources. It is interesting that for appropriately chosen parameters even a Schwarzschild black hole together with a naked singularity can be "suspended" freely in the superposition of their fields.Comment: 4 pages; accepted for publication in Phys. Rev.

Regression applied to protein binding site prediction and comparison with classification

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The structural genomics centers provide hundreds of protein structures of unknown function. Therefore, developing methods enabling the determination of a protein function automatically is imperative. The determination of a protein function can be achieved by studying the network of its physical interactions. In this context, identifying a potential binding site between proteins is of primary interest. In the literature, methods for predicting a potential binding site location generally are based on classification tools. The aim of this paper is to show that regression tools are more efficient than classification tools for patches based binding site predictors. For this purpose, we developed a patches based binding site localization method usable with either regression or classification tools.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We compared predictive performances of regression tools with performances of machine learning classifiers. Using leave-one-out cross-validation, we showed that regression tools provide better predictions than classification ones. Among regression tools, Multilayer Perceptron ranked highest in the quality of predictions. We compared also the predictive performance of our patches based method using Multilayer Perceptron with the performance of three other methods usable through a web server. Our method performed similarly to the other methods.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Regression is more efficient than classification when applied to our binding site localization method. When it is possible, using regression instead of classification for other existing binding site predictors will probably improve results. Furthermore, the method presented in this work is flexible because the size of the predicted binding site is adjustable. This adaptability is useful when either false positive or negative rates have to be limited.</p

The Cosmological Constant

This is a review of the physics and cosmology of the cosmological constant. Focusing on recent developments, I present a pedagogical overview of cosmology in the presence of a cosmological constant, observational constraints on its magnitude, and the physics of a small (and potentially nonzero) vacuum energy.Comment: 50 pages. Submitted to Living Reviews in Relativity (http://www.livingreviews.org/), December 199

Statistical Methods in Recent HIV Noninferiority Trials: Reanalysis of 11 Trials

Background: In recent years the ‘‘noninferiority’ ’ trial has emerged as the new standard design for HIV drug development among antiretroviral patients often with a primary endpoint based on the difference in success rates between the two treatment groups. Different statistical methods have been introduced to provide confidence intervals for that difference. The main objective is to investigate whether the choice of the statistical method changes the conclusion of the trials. Methods: We presented 11 trials published in 2010 using a difference in proportions as the primary endpoint. In these trials, 5 different statistical methods have been used to estimate such confidence intervals. The five methods are described and applied to data from the 11 trials. The noninferiority of the new treatment is not demonstrated if the prespecified noninferiority margin it includes in the confidence interval of the treatment difference. Results: Results indicated that confidence intervals can be quite different according to the method used. In many situations, however, conclusions of the trials are not altered because point estimates of the treatment difference were too far from the prespecified noninferiority margins. Nevertheless, in few trials the use of different statistical methods led to different conclusions. In particular the use of ‘‘exact’ ’ methods can be very confusing. Conclusion: Statistical methods used to estimate confidence intervals in noninferiority trials have a strong impact on th

Avian Influenza Virus Glycoproteins Restrict Virus Replication and Spread through Human Airway Epithelium at Temperatures of the Proximal Airways

Transmission of avian influenza viruses from bird to human is a rare event even though avian influenza viruses infect the ciliated epithelium of human airways in vitro and ex vivo. Using an in vitro model of human ciliated airway epithelium (HAE), we demonstrate that while human and avian influenza viruses efficiently infect at temperatures of the human distal airways (37°C), avian, but not human, influenza viruses are restricted for infection at the cooler temperatures of the human proximal airways (32°C). These data support the hypothesis that avian influenza viruses, ordinarily adapted to the temperature of the avian enteric tract (40°C), rarely infect humans, in part due to differences in host airway regional temperatures. Previously, a critical residue at position 627 in the avian influenza virus polymerase subunit, PB2, was identified as conferring temperature-dependency in mammalian cells. Here, we use reverse genetics to show that avianization of residue 627 attenuates a human virus, but does not account for the different infection between 32°C and 37°C. To determine the mechanism of temperature restriction of avian influenza viruses in HAE at 32°C, we generated recombinant human influenza viruses in either the A/Victoria/3/75 (H3N2) or A/PR/8/34 (H1N1) genetic background that contained avian or avian-like glycoproteins. Two of these viruses, A/Victoria/3/75 with L226Q and S228G mutations in hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) from A/Chick/Italy/1347/99 and A/PR/8/34 containing the H7 and N1 from A/Chick/Italy/1347/99, exhibited temperature restriction approaching that of wholly avian influenza viruses. These data suggest that influenza viruses bearing avian or avian-like surface glycoproteins have a reduced capacity to establish productive infection at the temperature of the human proximal airways. This temperature restriction may limit zoonotic transmission of avian influenza viruses and suggests that adaptation of avian influenza viruses to efficient infection at 32°C may represent a critical evolutionary step enabling human-to-human transmission

Inhaled nitric oxide alleviates hyperoxia suppressed phosphatidylcholine synthesis in endotoxin-induced injury in mature rat lungs

BACKGROUND: We investigated efficacy of inhaled nitric oxide (NO) in modulation of metabolism of phosphatidylcholine (PC) of pulmonary surfactant and in anti-inflammatory mechanism of mature lungs with inflammatory injury. METHODS: Healthy adult rats were divided into a group of lung inflammation induced by i.v. lipopolysaccharides (LPS) or a normal control (C) for 24 h, and then exposed to: room air (Air), 95% oxygen (O), NO (20 parts per million, NO), both O and NO (ONO) as subgroups, whereas [(3)H]-choline was injected i.v. for incorporation into PC of the lungs which were processed subsequently at 10 min, 4, 8, 12 and 24 h, respectively, for measurement of PC synthesis and proinflammatory cytokine production. RESULTS: LPS-NO subgroup had the lowest level of labeled PC in total phospholipids and disaturated PC in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid and lung tissue (decreased by 46–59%), along with the lowest activity of cytidine triphosphate: phosphocholine cytidylyltransferase (-14–18%) in the lungs, compared to all other subgroups at 4 h (p < 0.01), but not at 8 and 12 h. After 24-h, all LPS-subgroups had lower labeled PC than the corresponding C-subgroups (p < 0.05). LPS-ONO had higher labeled PC in total phospholipids and disaturated PC, activity of cytidylyltransferase, and lower activity of nuclear transcription factor-κB and expression of proinflammatory cytokine mRNA, than that in the LPS-O subgroup (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: In LPS-induced lung inflammation in association with hyperoxia, depressed PC synthesis and enhanced proinflammatory cytokine production may be alleviated by iNO. NO alone only transiently suppressed the PC synthesis as a result of lower activity of cytidylyltransferase

The deuteron: structure and form factors

A brief review of the history of the discovery of the deuteron in provided. The current status of both experiment and theory for the elastic electron scattering is then presented.Comment: 80 pages, 33 figures, submited to Advances in Nuclear Physic

Unintentional injuries in children with disabilities:a systematic review and meta-analysis

Children with disabilities are thought to have an increased risk of unintentional injuries, but quantitative syntheses of findings from previous studies have not been done. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess whether pre-existing disability can increase the risk of unintentional injuries among children when they are compared to children without disability. We searched 13 electronic databases to identify original research published between 1 January 1990 and 28 February 2013. We included those studies that reported on unintentional injuries among children with pre-existing disabilities compared with children without disabilities. We conducted quality assessments and then calculated pooled odds ratios of injury using random-effects models. Fifteen eligible studies were included from 24,898 references initially identified, and there was a total sample of 83,286 children with disabilities drawn from the eligible studies. When compared with children without disabilities, the pooled OR of injury was 1.86 (95 % CI 1.65-2.10) in children with disabilities. The pooled ORs of injury were 1.28, 1.75, and 1.86 in the 0-4 years, 5-9 years, and ≥10 years of age subgroups, respectively. Compared with children without disabilities, the pooled OR was 1.75 (95 % CI 1.26-2.43) among those with International Classification of Functioning (ICF) limitations. When disability was defined as physical disabilities, the pooled OR was 2.39 (95 % CI 1.43-4.00), and among those with cognitive disabilities, the pooled OR was 1.77 (95 % CI 1.49-2.11). There was significant heterogeneity in the included studies. Compared with peers without disabilities, children with disabilities are at a significantly higher risk of injury. Teens with disabilities may be an important subgroup for future injury prevention efforts. More data are needed from low- and middle-income countries