Assessing the adequacy of self-reported alcohol abuse measurement across time and ethnicity: cross-cultural equivalence across Hispanics and Caucasians in 1992, non-equivalence in 2001–2002

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Do estimates of alcohol abuse reflect true levels across United States Hispanics and non-Hispanic Caucasians, or does culturally-based, systematic measurement error (i.e., measurement bias) affect estimates? Likewise, given that recent estimates suggest alcohol abuse has increased among US Hispanics, the field should also ask, "Does cross-ethnic change in alcohol abuse across time reflect true change or does measurement bias influence change estimates?"</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>To address these questions, I used confirmatory factor analyses for ordered-categorical measures to probe for measurement bias on two large, standardized, nationally representative, US surveys of alcohol abuse conducted in 1992 and 2001–2002. In 2001–2002, analyses investigated whether 10 items operationalizing DSM-IV alcohol abuse provided equivalent measurement across Hispanic (<it>n </it>= 4,893) and non-Hispanic Caucasians (<it>n </it>= 16,480). In 1992, analyses examined whether a reduced 6 item item-set provided equivalent measurement among 834 Hispanic and 14,8335 non-Hispanic Caucasians.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In 1992, findings demonstrated statistically significant measurement bias for two items. However, sensitivity analyses showed that item-level bias did not appreciably bias item-set based alcohol abuse estimates among this cohort. For 2001–2002, results demonstrated statistically significant bias for seven items, suggesting caution regarding the cross-ethnic equivalence of alcohol abuse estimates among the current US Hispanic population. Sensitivity analyses indicated that item-level differences <it>did </it>erroneously impact alcohol abuse rates in 2001–2002, underestimating rates among Hispanics relative to Caucasians.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>1992's item-level findings suggest that estimates of drinking related social or legal problems may underestimate these specific problems among Hispanics. However, impact analyses indicated no appreciable effect on alcohol abuse estimates resulting from the item-set. Efforts to monitor change in alcohol abuse diagnoses among the Hispanic community can use 1992 estimates as a valid baseline. In 2001–2002, item-level measurement bias on seven items did affect item-set based estimates. Bias underestimated Hispanics' self-reported alcohol abuse levels relative to non-Hispanic Caucasians. Given the cross-ethnic equivalence of 1992 estimates, bias in 2001–2002 speciously minimizes current increases in drinking behavior evidenced among Hispanics. Findings call for increased public health efforts among the Hispanic community and underscore the necessity for cultural sensitivity when generalizing measures developed in the majority to minorities.</p

Large-scale air mass characteristics observed over the remote tropical Pacific Ocean during March-April 1999: Results from PEM-Tropics B field experiment

Eighteen long-range flights over the Pacific Ocean between 38° S to 20° N and 166° E to 90° W were made by the NASA DC-8 aircraft during the NASA Pacific Exploratory Mission (PEM) Tropics B conducted from March 6 to April 18, 1999. Two lidar systems were flown on the DC-8 to remotely measure vertical profiles of ozone (O3), water vapor (H2O), aerosols, and clouds from near the surface to the upper troposphere along their flight track. In situ measurements of a wide range of gases and aerosols were made on the DC-8 for comprehensive characterization of the air and for correlation with the lidar remote measurements. The transition from northeasterly flow of Northern Hemispheric (NH) air on the northern side of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to generally easterly flow of Southern Hemispheric (SH) air south of the ITCZ was accompanied by a significant decrease in O3, carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, and aerosols and an increase in H2O. Trajectory analyses indicate that air north of the ITCZ came from Asia and/or the United States, while the air south of the ITCZ had a long residence time over the Pacific, perhaps originating over South America several weeks earlier. Air south of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) came rapidly from the west originating over Australia or Africa. This air had enhanced O3 and aerosols and an associated decrease in H2O. Average latitudinal and longitudinal distributions of O3 and H2O were constructed from the remote and in situ O3 and H2O data, and these distributions are compared with results from PEM-Tropics A conducted in August-October 1996. During PEM-Tropics B, low O3 air was found in the SH across the entire Pacific Basin at low latitudes. This was in strong contrast to the photochemically enhanced O3 levels found across the central and eastern Pacific low latitudes during PEM-Tropics A. Nine air mass types were identified for PEM-Tropics B based on their O3, aerosols, clouds, and potential vorticity characteristics. The data from each flight were binned by altitude according to air mass type, and these results showed the relative observational frequency of the different air masses as a function of altitude in seven regions over the Pacific. The average chemical composition of the major air mass types was determined from in situ measurements in the NH and SH, and these results provided insight into the origin, lifetime, and chemistry of the air in these regions. Copyright 2001 by the American Geophysical Union

An assessment of western North Pacific ozone photochemistry based on springtime observations from NASA's PEM-West B (1994) and TRACE-P (2001) field studies

The current study provides a comparison of the photochemical environments for two NASA field studies focused on the western North Pacific (PEM-West-B (PWB) and TRACE-P (TP)). These two studies were separated in calendar time by approximately 7 years. Both studies were carried out under springtime conditions, with PWB being launched in 1994 and TP being deployed in 2001 (i.e., 23 February - 15 March 1994 and 10 March-15 April 2001, respectively). Because of the 7-year time separation, these two studies presented a unique scientific opportunity to assess whether evidence could be found to support the Department of Energy\u27s projections in 1997 that increases in anthropogenic emissions from East Asia could reach 5%/yr. Such projections would lead one to the conclusion that a significant shift in the atmospheric photochemical properties of the western North Pacific would occur. To the contrary, the findings from this study support the most recent emission inventory data [Streets et al., 2003] in that they show no significant systematic trend involving increases in any O3 precursor species and no evidence for a significant shift in the level of photochemical activity over the western North Pacific. This conclusion was reached in spite of there being real differences in the concentration levels of some species as well as differences in photochemical activity between PWB and TP. However, nearly all of these differences were shown to be a result of a near 3-week shift in TP\u27s sampling window relative to PWB, thus placing it later in the spring season. The photochemical enhancements seen during TP were most noticeable for latitudes in the range of 25-45°N. Most important among these were increases in J(O1D), OH, and HO2 and values for photochemical ozone formation and destruction, all of which were typically two times larger than those calculated for PWB. A comparison of these airborne results with ozonesonde data from four Japanese stations provided further evidence showing that the 3-week shift in the respective sampling windows of PWB and TP was a likely cause for the differences seen in O3 levels and in photochemical activity between the two airborne studies. Copyright 2003 by the American Geophysical Union

A systematic review of models to predict recruitment to multicentre clinical trials

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Less than one third of publicly funded trials managed to recruit according to their original plan often resulting in request for additional funding and/or time extensions. The aim was to identify models which might be useful to a major public funder of randomised controlled trials when estimating likely time requirements for recruiting trial participants. The requirements of a useful model were identified as usability, based on experience, able to reflect time trends, accounting for centre recruitment and contribution to a commissioning decision.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A systematic review of English language articles using MEDLINE and EMBASE. Search terms included: randomised controlled trial, patient, accrual, predict, enrol, models, statistical; Bayes Theorem; Decision Theory; Monte Carlo Method and Poisson. Only studies discussing prediction of recruitment to trials using a modelling approach were included. Information was extracted from articles by one author, and checked by a second, using a pre-defined form.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Out of 326 identified abstracts, only 8 met all the inclusion criteria. Of these 8 studies examined, there are five major classes of model discussed: the unconditional model, the conditional model, the Poisson model, Bayesian models and Monte Carlo simulation of Markov models. None of these meet all the pre-identified needs of the funder.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>To meet the needs of a number of research programmes, a new model is required as a matter of importance. Any model chosen should be validated against both retrospective and prospective data, to ensure the predictions it gives are superior to those currently used.</p

Evolutionary Dead End in the Galápagos: Divergence of Sexual Signals in the Rarest of Darwin's Finches

Understanding the mechanisms underlying speciation remains a challenge in evolutionary biology. The adaptive radiation of Darwin's finches is a prime example of species formation, and their study has revealed many important insights into evolutionary processes. Here, we report striking differences in mating signals (songs), morphology and genetics between the two remnant populations of Darwin's mangrove finch Camarhynchus heliobates, one of the rarest species in the world. We also show that territorial males exhibited strong discrimination of sexual signals by locality: in response to foreign songs, males responded weaker than to songs from their own population. Female responses were infrequent and weak but gave approximately similar results. Our findings not only suggest speciation in the mangrove finch, thereby providing strong support for the central role of sexual signals during speciation, but they have also implications for the conservation of this iconic bird. If speciation is complete, the eastern species will face imminent extinction, because it has a population size of only 5–10 individuals