Modelling with non-stratified chain event graphs

© 2019, Springer Nature Switzerland AG. Chain Event Graphs (CEGs) are recent probabilistic graphical modelling tools that have proved successful in modelling scenarios with context-specific independencies. Although the theory underlying CEGs supports appropriate representation of structural zeroes, the literature so far does not provide an adaptation of the vanilla CEG methods for a real-world application presenting structural zeroes also known as the non-stratified CEG class. To illustrate these methods, we present a non-stratified CEG representing a public health intervention designed to reduce the risk and rate of falling in the elderly. We then compare the CEG model to the more conventional Bayesian Network model when applied to this setting

The Sound Generated by Mid-Ocean Ridge Black Smoker Hydrothermal Vents

Hydrothermal flow through seafloor black smoker vents is typically turbulent and vigorous, with speeds often exceeding 1 m/s. Although theory predicts that these flows will generate sound, the prevailing view has been that black smokers are essentially silent. Here we present the first unambiguous field recordings showing that these vents radiate significant acoustic energy. The sounds contain a broadband component and narrowband tones which are indicative of resonance. The amplitude of the broadband component shows tidal modulation which is indicative of discharge rate variations related to the mechanics of tidal loading. Vent sounds will provide researchers with new ways to study flow through sulfide structures, and may provide some local organisms with behavioral or navigational cues

Torpor on Demand: Heterothermy in the Non-Lemur Primate Galago moholi

Hibernation and daily torpor are energy- and water-saving adaptations employed to survive unfavourable periods mostly in temperate and arctic environments, but also in tropical and arid climates. Heterothermy has been found in a number of mammalian orders, but within the primates so far it seems to be restricted to one family of Malagasy lemurs. As currently there is no evidence of heterothermy of a primate outside of Madagascar, the aim of our study was to investigate whether small primates from mainland Africa are indeed always homeothermic despite pronounced seasonal changes in weather and food availability., which inhabits a highly seasonal habitat with a hot wet-season and a cold dry-season with lower food abundance, was investigated to determine whether it is capable of heterothermy. We measured skin temperature of free-ranging individuals throughout the cool dry season using temperature-sensitive collars as well as metabolic rate in captured individuals. Torpor was employed by 15% of 20 animals. Only one of these animals displayed heterothermy in response to natural availability of food and water, whereas the other animals became torpid without access to food and water. are physiologically capable of employing torpor. However they do not use it as a routine behaviour, but only under adverse conditions. This reluctance is presumably a result of conflicting selective pressures for energy savings versus other ecological and evolutionary forces, such as reproduction or territory defence. Our results support the view that heterothermy in primates evolved before the division of African and Malagasy Strepsirhini, with the possible implication that more primate species than previously thought might still have the potential to call upon this possibility, if the situation necessitates it

Use of health services by remote dwelling Aboriginal infants in tropical northern Australia: a retrospective cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Australia is a wealthy developed country. However, there are significant disparities in health outcomes for Aboriginal infants compared with other Australian infants. Health outcomes tend to be worse for those living in remote areas. Little is known about the health service utilisation patterns of remote dwelling Aboriginal infants. This study describes health service utilisation patterns at the primary and referral level by remote dwelling Aboriginal infants from northern Australia.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Data on 413 infants were analysed. Following birth, one third of infants were admitted to the regional hospital neonatal nursery, primarily for preterm birth. Once home, most (98%) health service utilisation occurred at the remote primary health centre, infants presented to the centre about once a fortnight (mean 28 presentations per year, 95%CI 26.4-30.0). Half of the presentations were for new problems, most commonly for respiratory, skin and gastrointestinal symptoms. Remaining presentations were for reviews or routine health service provision. By one year of age 59% of infants were admitted to hospital at least once, the rate of hospitalisation per infant year was 1.1 (95%CI 0.9-1.2).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The hospitalisation rate is high and admissions commence early in life, visits to the remote primary health centre are frequent. Half of all presentations are for new problems. These findings have important implications for health service planning and delivery to remote dwelling Aboriginal families.</p

Effect of phosphate and temperature on force exerted by white muscle fibres from dogfish.

Effects of Pi (inorganic phosphate) are relevant to the in vivo function of muscle because Pi is one of the products of ATP hydrolysis by actomyosin and by the sarcoplasmic reticulum Ca pump. We have measured the Pi sensitivity of force produced by permeabilized muscle fibres from dogfish (Scyliorhinus canicula) and rabbit. The activation conditions for dogfish fibres were crucial: fibres activated from the relaxed state at 5, 12, and 20°C were sensitive to Pi, whereas fibres activated from rigor at 12°C were insensitive to Pi in the range 5-25 mmol l. Rabbit fibres activated from rigor were sensitive to Pi. Pi sensitivity of force produced by dogfish fibres activated from the relaxed state was greater below normal body temperature (12°C for dogfish) in agreement with what is known for other species. The force-temperature relationship for dogfish fibres (intact and permeabilized fibres activated from relaxed) showed that at 12°C, normal body temperature, the force was near to its maximum value

Challenges in measuring measles case fatality ratios in settings without vital registration

Measles, a highly infectious vaccine-preventable viral disease, is potentially fatal. Historically, measles case-fatality ratios (CFRs) have been reported to vary from 0.1% in the developed world to as high as 30% in emergency settings. Estimates of the global burden of mortality from measles, critical to prioritizing measles vaccination among other health interventions, are highly sensitive to the CFR estimates used in modeling; however, due to the lack of reliable, up-to-date data, considerable debate exists as to what CFR estimates are appropriate to use. To determine current measles CFRs in high-burden settings without vital registration we have conducted six retrospective measles mortality studies in such settings. This paper examines the methodological challenges of this work and our solutions to these challenges, including the integration of lessons from retrospective all-cause mortality studies into CFR studies, approaches to laboratory confirmation of outbreaks, and means of obtaining a representative sample of case-patients. Our experiences are relevant to those conducting retrospective CFR studies for measles or other diseases, and to those interested in all-cause mortality studies