Long-term trends in wild-capture and population dynamics point to an uncertain future for captive elephants

Maintaining sustainable populations in captivity without supplementation through wild-capture is a major challenge in conservation that zoos and aquaria are working towards. However, the capture of wild animals continues for many purposes where conservation is not the primary focus. Wild-capture hinders long-term conservation goals by reducing remaining wild populations, but the direct and long-term indirect consequences of wild-capture for captive population viability are rarely addressed using longitudinal data. We explored the implications of changes in wild-capture on population dynamics in captivity over 54 years using a multi-generational studbook of working Asian elephants ( Elephas maximus) from Myanmar, the largest remaining captive elephant population. Here we show that population growth and birth rates declined between 1960 and 2014 with declines in wild-capture. Importantly, wild-caught females had reduced birth rates and a higher mortality risk. However, despite the disadvantages of wild-capture, the population may not be sustainable without it, with immediate declines owing to an unstable age-structure that may last for 50 years. Our results highlight the need to assess the long-term demographic consequences of wild-capture to ensure the sustainability of captive and wild populations as species are increasingly managed and conserved in altered or novel environments

Causes and Correlates of Calf Mortality in Captive Asian Elephants (Elephas maximus)

Juvenile mortality is a key factor influencing population growth rate in density-independent, predation-free, well-managed captive populations. Currently at least a quarter of all Asian elephants live in captivity, but both the wild and captive populations are unsustainable with the present fertility and calf mortality rates. Despite the need for detailed data on calf mortality to manage effectively populations and to minimize the need for capture from the wild, very little is known of the causes and correlates of calf mortality in Asian elephants. Here we use the world's largest multigenerational demographic dataset on a semi-captive population of Asian elephants compiled from timber camps in Myanmar to investigate the survival of calves (n = 1020) to age five born to captive-born mothers (n = 391) between 1960 and 1999. Mortality risk varied significantly across different ages and was higher for males at any age. Maternal reproductive history was associated with large differences in both stillbirth and liveborn mortality risk: first-time mothers had a higher risk of calf loss as did mothers producing another calf soon (<3.7 years) after a previous birth, and when giving birth at older age. Stillbirth (4%) and pre-weaning mortality (25.6%) were considerably lower than those reported for zoo elephants and used in published population viability analyses. A large proportion of deaths were caused by accidents and lack of maternal milk/calf weakness which both might be partly preventable by supplementary feeding of mothers and calves and work reduction of high-risk mothers. Our results on Myanmar timber elephants with an extensive keeping system provide an important comparison to compromised survivorship reported in zoo elephants. They have implications for improving captive working elephant management systems in range countries and for refining population viability analyses with realistic parameter values in order to predict future population size of the Asian elephant

The epidemiology of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer’s disease (AD) in community-living seniors: protocol of the MemoVie cohort study, Luxembourg

BACKGROUND: Cognitive impairment and Alzheimer’s disease (AD) are increasingly considered a major public health problem. The MemoVie cohort study aims to investigate the living conditions or risk factors under which the normal cognitive capacities of the senior population in Luxembourg (≥ 65 year-old) evolve (1) to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) – transitory non-clinical stage – and (2) to AD. Identifying MCI and AD predictors undeniably constitutes a challenge in public health in that it would allow interventions which could protect or delay the occurrence of cognitive disorders in elderly people. In addition, the MemoVie study sets out to generate hitherto unavailable data, and a comprehensive view of the elderly population in the country. METHODS/DESIGN: The study has been designed with a view to highlighting the prevalence in Luxembourg of MCI and AD in the first step of the survey, conducted among participants selected from a random sample of the general population. A prospective cohort is consequently set up in the second step, and appropriate follow-up of the non-demented participants allows improving the knowledge of the preclinical stage of MCI. Case-control designs are used for cross-sectional or retrospective comparisons between outcomes and biological or clinical factors. To ensure maximal reliability of the information collected, we decided to opt for structured face to face interviews. Besides health status, medical and family history, demographic and socio-cultural information are explored, as well as education, habitat network, social behavior, leisure and physical activities. As multilingualism is expected to challenge the cognitive alterations associated with pathological ageing, it is additionally investigated. Data relative to motor function, including balance, walk, limits of stability, history of falls and accidents are further detailed. Finally, biological examinations, including ApoE genetic polymorphism are carried out. In addition to standard blood parameters, the lipid status of the participants is subsequently determined from the fatty acid profiles in their red blood cells. The study obtained the legal and ethical authorizations. DISCUSSION: By means of the multidisciplinary MemoVie study, new insights into the onset of cognitive impairment during aging should be put forward, much to the benefit of intervention strategies as a whole

Comparison of participants and non-participants to the ORISCAV-LUX population-based study on cardiovascular risk factors in Luxembourg

BACKGROUND: Poor response is a major concern in public health surveys. In a population-based ORISCAV-LUX study carried out in Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg to assess the cardiovascular risk factors, the non-response rate was not negligible. The aims of the present work were: 1) to investigate the representativeness of study sample to the general population, and 2) to compare the known demographic and cardiovascular health-related profiles of participants and non-participants. METHODS: For sample representativeness, the participants were compared to the source population according to stratification criteria (age, sex and district of residence). Based on complementary information from the "medical administrative database", further analysis was carried out to assess whether the health status affected the response rate. Several demographic and morbidity indicators were used in the univariate comparison between participants and non-participants. RESULTS: Among the 4452 potentially eligible subjects contacted for the study, there were finally 1432 (32.2%) participants. Compared to the source population, no differences were found for gender and district distribution. By contrast, the youngest age group was under-represented while adults and elderly were over-represented in the sample, for both genders. Globally, the investigated clinical profile of the non-participants was similar to that of participants. Hospital admission and cardiovascular health-related medical measures were comparable in both groups even after controlling for age. The participation rate was lower in Portuguese residents as compared to Luxembourgish (OR = 0.58, 95% CI: 0.48-0.69). It was also significantly associated with the professional status (P < 0.0001). Subjects from the working class were less receptive to the study than those from other professional categories. CONCLUSION: The 32.2% participation rate obtained in the ORISCAV-LUX survey represents the realistic achievable rate for this type of multiple-stage, nationwide, population-based surveys. It corresponds to the expected rate upon which the sample size was calculated. Given the absence of discriminating health profiles between participants and non-participants, it can be concluded that the response rate does not invalidate the results and allows generalizing the findings for the population

Psychosocial risk and protective factors of secondary school dropout in Luxembourg: the protocol of an exploratory case-control study.

BACKGROUND: In Luxembourg, the extensive phenomenon of school dropout is a prime policy concern in the light of individual, social and economic consequences. Although the authorities report an overall decrease of the national dropout rate, the proportion of early school leavers who remain without any specific occupation is still alarming. Therefore, this study intends a shift of focus from system-inherent to individual factors, including mental health and family correlates, to provide a more comprehensive analysis of the dropout phenomenon. METHODS/DESIGN: The objectives of this study are to investigate the type and prevalence of psychiatric disorders among school dropouts and to compare the findings with those by a matched control group of regularly enrolled students. Furthermore, family variables and socioeconomic status will be analysed, as they are factors likely to interfere with both educational attainment and mental health. A trained psychologist will use structured interviews and self-report forms to investigate for mental health issues, information on schooling, socioeconomic situation and family life. Controls will be matched for gender, age, school type and educational grade. DISCUSSION: As school dropouts face a serious risk of long term professional and social marginalization, there is an evident need for action. Identifying psychosocial risk and protective factors of school dropout will deliver solid insight on how to conceive public health strategies for young people who may need a more customized support to carry out their academic potential. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01354236