Studying the Effect of Measured Solar Power on Evolutionary Multi-objective Prediction Intervals

This paper has been presented at: 19th Intelligent Data Engineering and Automated Learning (IDEAL 2018)While it is common to make point forecasts for solar energy generation, estimating the forecast uncertainty has received less attention. In this article, prediction intervals are computed within a multi-objective approach in order to obtain an optimal coverage/width tradeoff. In particular, it is studied whether using measured power as an another input, additionally to the meteorological forecast variables, is able to improve the properties of prediction intervals for short time horizons (up to three hours). Results show that they tend to be narrower (i.e. less uncertain), and the ratio between coverage and width is larger. The method has shown to obtain intervals with better properties than baseline Quantile Regression.This work has been funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science under contract ENE2014-56126-C2-2-R (AOPRIN-SOL project)

Analysis of cardiac signals using spatial filling index and time-frequency domain

BACKGROUND: Analysis of heart rate variation (HRV) has become a popular noninvasive tool for assessing the activities of the autonomic nervous system (ANS). HRV analysis is based on the concept that fast fluctuations may specifically reflect changes of sympathetic and vagal activity. It shows that the structure generating the signal is not simply linear, but also involves nonlinear contributions. These signals are essentially non-stationary; may contain indicators of current disease, or even warnings about impending diseases. The indicators may be present at all times or may occur at random in the time scale. However, to study and pinpoint abnormalities in voluminous data collected over several hours is strenuous and time consuming. METHODS: This paper presents the spatial filling index and time-frequency analysis of heart rate variability signal for disease identification. Renyi's entropy is evaluated for the signal in the Wigner-Ville and Continuous Wavelet Transformation (CWT) domain. RESULTS: This Renyi's entropy gives lower 'p' value for scalogram than Wigner-Ville distribution and also, the contours of scalogram visually show the features of the diseases. And in the time-frequency analysis, the Renyi's entropy gives better result for scalogram than the Wigner-Ville distribution. CONCLUSION: Spatial filling index and Renyi's entropy has distinct regions for various diseases with an accuracy of more than 95%

Ghosts of Yellowstone: Multi-Decadal Histories of Wildlife Populations Captured by Bones on a Modern Landscape

Natural accumulations of skeletal material (death assemblages) have the potential to provide historical data on species diversity and population structure for regions lacking decades of wildlife monitoring, thereby contributing valuable baseline data for conservation and management strategies. Previous studies of the ecological and temporal resolutions of death assemblages from terrestrial large-mammal communities, however, have largely focused on broad patterns of community composition in tropical settings. Here, I expand the environmental sampling of large-mammal death assemblages into a temperate biome and explore more demanding assessments of ecological fidelity by testing their capacity to record past population fluctuations of individual species in the well-studied ungulate community of Yellowstone National Park (Yellowstone). Despite dramatic ecological changes following the 1988 wildfires and 1995 wolf re-introduction, the Yellowstone death assemblage is highly faithful to the living community in species richness and community structure. These results agree with studies of tropical death assemblages and establish the broad capability of vertebrate remains to provide high-quality ecological data from disparate ecosystems and biomes. Importantly, the Yellowstone death assemblage also correctly identifies species that changed significantly in abundance over the last 20 to ∼80 years and the directions of those shifts (including local invasions and extinctions). The relative frequency of fresh versus weathered bones for individual species is also consistent with documented trends in living population sizes. Radiocarbon dating verifies the historical source of bones from Equus caballus (horse): a functionally extinct species. Bone surveys are a broadly valuable tool for obtaining population trends and baseline shifts over decadal-to-centennial timescales

Allellic variants in regulatory regions of cyclooxygenase-2: association with advanced colorectal adenoma

Cyclooxygenase 2 (Cox-2) is upregulated in colorectal adenomas and carcinomas. Polymorphisms in the Cox-2 gene may influence its function and/or its expression and may modify the protective effect of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), thereby impacting individuals' risk of developing colorectal cancer and response to prevention/intervention strategies. In a nested case–control study, four polymorphisms in the Cox-2 gene (two in the promoter, −663 insertion/deletion, GT/(GT) and −798 A/G; one in intron 5-5229, T/G; one in 3′untranslated region (UTR)-8494, T/C) were genotyped in 726 cases of colorectal adenomas and 729 age- and gender-matched controls in the prostate, lung, colorectal, and ovarian (PLCO) cancer screening trial. There was no significant association between the Cox-2 polymorphisms and adenoma development in the overall population. However, in males, the relatively rare heterozygous genotype GT/(GT) at −663 in the promoter and the variant homozygous genotype G/G at intron 5-5229 appeared to have inverse associations (odds ratio (OR)=0.59, confidence interval (CI): 0.34–1.02 and OR=0.48, CI: 0.24–0.99, respectively), whereas the heterozygous genotype T/C at 3′UTR-8494 had a positive association (OR=1.31, CI: 1.01–1.71) with adenoma development. Furthermore, the haplotype carrying the risk-conferring 3′UTR-8494 variant was associated with a 35% increase in the odds for adenoma incidence in males (OR=1.35, CI: 1.07–1.70), but the one with a risk allele at 3′UTR-8494 and a protective allele at intron 5-5229 had no effect on adenoma development (OR=0.85, CI: 0.66–1.09). Gender-related differences in adenoma risk were also noted with tobacco usage and protective effects of NSAIDs. Our analysis underscores the significance of the overall allelic architecture of Cox-2 as an important determinant for risk assessment

Towards Applying River Formation Dynamics in Continuous Optimization Problems

River Formation Dynamics (RFD) is a metaheuristic that has been successfully used by different research groups to deal with a wide variety of discrete combinatorial optimization problems. However, no attempt has been done to adapt it to continuous optimization domains. In this paper we propose a first approach to obtain such objective, and we evaluate its usefulness by comparing RFD results against those obtained by other more mature metaheuristics for continuous domains. In particular, we compare with the results obtained by Particle Swarm Optimization, Artificial Bee Colony, Firefly Algorithm, and Social Spider Optimization

Shear wave velocity prediction using seismic attributes and well log data

Formation’s properties can be estimated indirectly using joint analysis of compressional and shear wave velocities. Shear wave data isnot usually acquired during well logging, which is most likely for costsaving purposes. Even if shear data is available, the logging programs provide only sparsely sampled one-dimensional measurements: this informationis inadequate to estimate reservoir rock properties. Thus, if the shear wave data can be obtained using seismic methods, the results can be used across the field to estimate reservoir properties. The aim of this paper is to use seismic attributes for prediction of shear wave velocity in a field located in southern part of Iran. Independent component analysis(ICA) was used to select the most relevant attributes to shear velocity data. Considering the nonlinear relationship between seismic attributes and shear wave velocity, multi-layer feed forward neural network was used for prediction of shear wave velocity and promising results were presented

Has Selection for Improved Agronomic Traits Made Reed Canarygrass Invasive?

Plant breeders have played an essential role in improving agricultural crops, and their efforts will be critical to meet the increasing demand for cellulosic bioenergy feedstocks. However, a major concern is the potential development of novel invasive species that result from breeders' efforts to improve agronomic traits in a crop. We use reed canarygrass as a case study to evaluate the potential of plant breeding to give rise to invasive species. Reed canarygrass has been improved by breeders for use as a forage crop, but it is unclear whether breeding efforts have given rise to more vigorous populations of the species. We evaluated cultivars, European wild, and North American invader populations in upland and wetland environments to identify differences in vigor between the groups of populations. While cultivars were among the most vigorous populations in an agricultural environment (upland soils with nitrogen addition), there were no differences in above- or below-ground production between any populations in wetland environments. These results suggest that breeding has only marginally increased vigor in upland environments and that these gains are not maintained in wetland environments. Breeding focuses on selection for improvements of a specific target population of environments, and stability across a wide range of environments has proved elusive for even the most intensively bred crops. We conclude that breeding efforts are not responsible for wetland invasion by reed canarygrass and offer guidelines that will help reduce the possibility of breeding programs releasing cultivars that will become invasive

Molecular pedomorphism underlies craniofacial skeletal evolution in Antarctic notothenioid fishes

Background Pedomorphism is the retention of ancestrally juvenile traits by adults in a descendant taxon. Despite its importance for evolutionary change, there are few examples of a molecular basis for this phenomenon. Notothenioids represent one of the best described species flocks among marine fishes, but their diversity is currently threatened by the rapidly changing Antarctic climate. Notothenioid evolutionary history is characterized by parallel radiations from a benthic ancestor to pelagic predators, which was accompanied by the appearance of several pedomorphic traits, including the reduction of skeletal mineralization that resulted in increased buoyancy. Results We compared craniofacial skeletal development in two pelagic notothenioids, Chaenocephalus aceratus and Pleuragramma antarcticum, to that in a benthic species, Notothenia coriiceps, and two outgroups, the threespine stickleback and the zebrafish. Relative to these other species, pelagic notothenioids exhibited a delay in pharyngeal bone development, which was associated with discrete heterochronic shifts in skeletal gene expression that were consistent with persistence of the chondrogenic program and a delay in the osteogenic program during larval development. Morphological analysis also revealed a bias toward the development of anterior and ventral elements of the notothenioid pharyngeal skeleton relative to dorsal and posterior elements. Conclusions Our data support the hypothesis that early shifts in the relative timing of craniofacial skeletal gene expression may have had a significant impact on the adaptive radiation of Antarctic notothenioids into pelagic habitats