Revised calendar date for the Taupo eruption derived by ¹⁴C wiggle-matching using a New Zealand kauri ¹⁴C calibration data set

Taupo volcano in central North Island, New Zealand, is the most frequently active and productive rhyolite volcano on Earth. Its latest explosive activity about 1800 years ago generated the spectacular Taupo eruption, the most violent eruption known in the world in the last 5000 years. We present here a new accurate and precise eruption date of AD 232 ± 5 (1718 ± 5 cal. BP) for the Taupo event. This date was derived by wiggle-matching 25 high-precision ¹⁴C dates from decadal samples of Phyllocladus trichomanoides from the Pureora buried forest near Lake Taupo against the high-precision, first-millennium AD subfossil Agathis australis (kauri) calibration data set constructed by the Waikato Radiocarbon Laboratory. It shows that postulated dates for the eruption estimated previously from Greenland ice-core records (AD 181 ± 2) and putative historical records of unusual atmospheric phenomena in ancient Rome and China (c. AD 186) are both untenable. However, although their conclusion of a zero north–south ¹⁴C offset is erroneous, and their data exhibit a laboratory bias of about 38 years (too young), Sparks et al. (Sparks RJ, Melhuish WH, McKee JWA, Ogden J, Palmer JG and Molloy BPJ (1995) ¹⁴C calibration in the Southern Hemisphere and the date of the last Taupo eruption: Evidence from tree-ring sequences. Radiocarbon 37: 155–163) correctly utilized the Northern Hemisphere calibration curve of Stuiver and Becker (Stuiver M and Becker B (1993) High-precision decadal calibration of the radiocarbon timescale, AD 1950–6000 BC. Radiocarbon 35: 35–65) to obtain an accurate wiggle-match date for the eruption identical to ours but less precise (AD 232 ± 15). Our results demonstrate that high-agreement levels, indicated by either agreement indices or χ² data, obtained from a ¹⁴C wiggle-match do not necessarily mean that age models are accurate. We also show that laboratory bias, if suspected, can be mitigated by applying the reservoir offset function with an appropriate error value (e.g. 0 ± 40 years). Ages for eruptives such as Taupo tephra that are based upon individual ¹⁴C dates should be considered as approximate only, and confined ideally to short-lived material (e.g. seeds, leaves, small branches or the outer rings of larger trees)

Improvement and further development of SSM/I overland parameter algorithms using the WetNet workstation

Since the launch of the DMSP Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I), several algorithms have been developed to retrieve overland parameters. These include the present operational algorithms resulting from the Navy calibration/validation effort such as land surface type (Neale et al. 1990), land surface temperature (McFarland et al. 1990), surface moisture (McFarland and Neale, 1991) and snow parameters (McFarland and Neale, 1991). In addition, other work has been done including the classification of snow cover and precipitation using the SSM/I (Grody, 1991). Due to the empirical nature of most of the above mentioned algorithms, further research is warranted and improvements can probably be obtained through a combination of radiative transfer modelling to study the physical processes governing the microwave emissions at the SSM/I frequencies, and the incorporation of additional ground truth data and special cases into the regression data sets. We have proposed specifically to improve the retrieval of surface moisture and snow parameters using the WetNet SSM/I data sets along with ground truth information namely climatic variables from the NOAA cooperative network of weather stations as well as imagery from other satellite sensors such as the AVHRR and Thematic Mapper. In the case of surface moisture retrievals the characterization of vegetation density is of primary concern. The higher spatial resolution satellite imagery collected at concurrent periods will be used to characterize vegetation types and amounts which, along with radiative transfer modelling should lead to more physically based retrievals. Snow parameter retrieval algorithm improvement will initially concentrate on the classification of snowpacks (dry snow, wet snow, refrozen snow) and later on specific products such as snow water equivalent. Significant accomplishments in the past year are presented

Examination of silver-graphite lithographically printed resistive strain sensors

This paper reports the design and manufacture of three differing types of resistive strain sensitive structures fabricated using the Conductive Lithographic Film (CLF) printing process. The structures, utilising two inks prepared with silver and graphite particulates as the conductive phase, have been analysed to determine electrical and mechanical properties with respect to strain, temperature and humidity when deposited on four alternative substrate materials (GlossArt, PolyArt, Teslin and Melinex)

Quantifying the success of feral cat eradication, San Nicolas Island, California

It is usually uncertain when to declare success and stop control in pest eradication operations that rely on successive reductions of the population. We used the data collected during a project to eradicate feral cats from San Nicolas Island, California to estimate both the number of cats remaining towards the end of the project, and the amount and type of surveillance effort required to declare successful eradication after the last known cat was removed. Fifty seven cats were removed between June 2009 and April 2010 and our model estimated that there was a 95% chance that a further 1 to 4 cats remained, with 1 cat being the most likely number. After this time a further two cats were detected and removed and the model predicted this outcome with a probability of 0.25. If managers wished to confirm eradication success at this point, we estimated that 55 km of effort searching for recent evidence of cats over the whole island without detecting any would provide 99% certainty that no cats remained (stopping rule 1). Alternatively, the optimal amount of search effort for evidence that minimized the joint cost of searching and the cost of wrongly declaring eradication was 75 km (stopping rule 2). The equivalent amount of camera-nights (26 cameras were available) required to declare successful eradication were 416 (stopping rule 1) and 1196 camera nights (stopping rule 2). During the confirmation phase, 270 km of sign search effort and 3294 camera-nights surveillance were used from late June 2010, when the last cat was removed, through August 2010, without detecting signs of survivors. Managers can be very confident that eradication has been successful

Nonperturbative analysis of the gravitational waves from a first-order electroweak phase transition

We present the first end-to-end nonperturbative analysis of the gravitational wave power spectrum from a thermal first-order electroweak phase transition (EWPT), using the framework of dimensionally reduced effective field theory and preexisting nonperturbative simulation results. We are able to show that a first-order EWPT in any beyond the Standard Model (BSM) scenario that can be described by a Standard Model-like effective theory at long distances will produce gravitational wave signatures too weak to be observed at existing and planned detectors. This implies that colliders are likely to provide the best chance of exploring the phase structure of such theories, while transitions strong enough to be detected at gravitational wave experiments require either previously neglected higher-dimension operators or light BSM fields to be included in the dimensionally reduced effective theory and therefore necessitate dedicated nonperturbative studies. As a concrete application, we analyze the real singlet-extended Standard Model and identify regions of parameter space with single-step first-order transitions, comparing our findings to those obtained using a fully perturbative method. We discuss the prospects for exploring the electroweak phase diagram in this model at collider and gravitational wave experiments in light of our nonperturbative results.Peer reviewe

Electric dipole moment of the ρ meson

At a hadronic scale the effect of CP-violating interactions that typically appear in extensions of the Standard Model may be described by an effective Lagrangian, in which the operators are expressed in terms of lepton and partonic gluon and quark fields and ordered by their mass dimension, k⩾4. Using a global-symmetry-preserving truncation of QCD Dyson-Schwinger equations, we compute the ρ-meson's electric dipole moment (EDM), d_ρ, as generated by the leading dimension-four and dimension-five CP-violating operators and an example of a dimension-six four-quark operator. The two dimension-five operators, i.e., the quark EDM and quark chromo-EDM, produce contributions to d_ρ whose coefficients are of the same sign and within a factor of 2 in magnitude. Moreover, should a suppression mechanism be verified for the θ term in any beyond-Standard-Model theory, the contribution from a four-quark operator can match the quark EDM and quark chromo-EDM in importance. This study serves as a prototype for the more challenging task of computing the neutron's EDM

Association of Diet Quality With Metabolic (Dysfunction) associated Fatty Liver Disease in Veterans in Primary Care

BACKGROUND: Diet is associated with metabolic (dysfunction)-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD), but the dietary composition associated with MAFLD risk has not been well-examined. AIM: The purpose of this study was to assess the association of two healthy eating indices with the presence and severity of MAFLD in a sample of Veterans in a primary care setting. METHODS: This was a single center cross-sectional study using a random stratified sample of Veterans enrolled in primary care. Participants underwent a Fibroscan and completed an interviewer-administered Diet History Questionnaire II from which we calculated the Healthy Eating Index-2015 and Alternate Mediterranean Diet Score. We used multivariable logistic regression models to assess associations of dietary quality with MAFLD. RESULTS: We analyzed data from 187 participants, 53.5% of whom were female. On average, participants were 50.2 years of age (SD, 12.3 years) with an average BMI of 31.7 kg/m DISCUSSION: We found that the Alternate Mediterranean Diet Score was significantly associated with lower MAFLD risk in Veterans; however, the association was mediated by BMI and total energy intake. A Mediterranean-style diet could potentially help reduce the risk of MAFLD, particularly if it helps control total energy intake and weight