A comparison of two methods for expert elicitation in health technology assessments.

BACKGROUND: When data needed to inform parameters in decision models are lacking, formal elicitation of expert judgement can be used to characterise parameter uncertainty. Although numerous methods for eliciting expert opinion as probability distributions exist, there is little research to suggest whether one method is more useful than any other method. This study had three objectives: (i) to obtain subjective probability distributions characterising parameter uncertainty in the context of a health technology assessment; (ii) to compare two elicitation methods by eliciting the same parameters in different ways; (iii) to collect subjective preferences of the experts for the different elicitation methods used. METHODS: Twenty-seven clinical experts were invited to participate in an elicitation exercise to inform a published model-based cost-effectiveness analysis of alternative treatments for prostate cancer. Participants were individually asked to express their judgements as probability distributions using two different methods - the histogram and hybrid elicitation methods - presented in a random order. Individual distributions were mathematically aggregated across experts with and without weighting. The resulting combined distributions were used in the probabilistic analysis of the decision model and mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and the expected values of perfect information (EVPI) were calculated for each method, and compared with the original cost-effectiveness analysis. Scores on the ease of use of the two methods and the extent to which the probability distributions obtained from each method accurately reflected the expert's opinion were also recorded. RESULTS: Six experts completed the task. Mean ICERs from the probabilistic analysis ranged between £162,600-£175,500 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) depending on the elicitation and weighting methods used. Compared to having no information, use of expert opinion decreased decision uncertainty: the EVPI value at the £30,000 per QALY threshold decreased by 74-86 % from the original cost-effectiveness analysis. Experts indicated that the histogram method was easier to use, but attributed a perception of more accuracy to the hybrid method. CONCLUSIONS: Inclusion of expert elicitation can decrease decision uncertainty. Here, choice of method did not affect the overall cost-effectiveness conclusions, but researchers intending to use expert elicitation need to be aware of the impact different methods could have.This paper presents independent research funded by the National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care (CLAHRC) for the South West Peninsula

Evaluation of the Acute Oral Toxicity Class of Trinuclear Chromium(III) Glycinate Complex in Rat

Chromium(III) is considered as an essential element playing a role in carbohydrate and lipid metabolism, and various chemical forms of this element are widely used in dietary supplements. A new trinuclear chromium(III) glycinate complex [Cr3O(NH2CH2CO2)6(H2O)3]+NO3− (CrGly), an analogue of Cr3 (trinuclear Cr(III) propionate complex) has been synthesized as a potential source of supplementary Cr. In this study, we evaluated the acute toxicity class of CrGly in Wistar rats applying the OECD 423 procedure. Male and female Wistar rats (n = 12, 6 ♀ and 6 ♂) were given by gavage either a single dose of CrGly 2,000 mg/kg body mass (equals to 300 mg Cr(III)/kg body mass; in aqueous solution) or equivalent volumes of distilled water and fed ad libitum commercial Labofeed B diet, and observed carefully for 14 days, then sacrificed to collect blood and internal organs for biochemical and histologic examination. No death cases were detected. No abnormalities in animal behavior, body mass gains, gross organ histology, or blood morphology and biochemistry were observed. The results demonstrate that LD50 of CrGly is greater than 2,000 mg/kg when administrated orally to rat; thus, this compound appears to belong to the fifth category in the GHS system or the fourth class (“unclassified”) in the EU classification system

Acute Pain and a Motivational Pathway in Adult Rats: Influence of Early Life Pain Experience

The importance of neonatal experience upon behaviour in later life is increasingly recognised. The overlap between pain and reward pathways led us to hypothesise that neonatal pain experience influences reward-related pathways and behaviours in adulthood

Influence of training status and exercise modality on pulmonary O2 uptake kinetics in pre-pubertal girls

The limited available evidence suggests that endurance training does not influence the pulmonary oxygen uptake (V(O)(2)) kinetics of pre-pubertal children. We hypothesised that, in young trained swimmers, training status-related adaptations in the V(O)(2) and heart rate (HR) kinetics would be more evident during upper body (arm cranking) than during leg cycling exercise. Eight swim-trained (T; 11.4 +/- 0.7 years) and eight untrained (UT; 11.5 +/- 0.6 years) girls completed repeated bouts of constant work rate cycling and upper body exercise at 40% of the difference between the gas exchange threshold and peak V(O)(2). The phase II V(O)(2) time constant was significantly shorter in the trained girls during upper body exercise (T: 25 +/- 3 vs. UT: 37 +/- 6 s; P < 0.01), but no training status effect was evident in the cycle response (T: 25 +/- 5 vs. UT: 25 +/- 7 s). The V(O)(2) slow component amplitude was not affected by training status or exercise modality. The time constant of the HR response was significantly faster in trained girls during both cycle (T: 31 +/- 11 vs. UT: 47 +/- 9 s; P < 0.01) and upper body (T: 33 +/- 8 vs. UT: 43 +/- 4 s; P < 0.01) exercise. The time constants of the phase II V(O)(2)and HR response were not correlated regardless of training status or exercise modality. This study demonstrates for the first time that swim-training status influences upper body V(O)(2) kinetics in pre-pubertal children, but that cycle ergometry responses are insensitive to such differences

5-HT1A receptor blockade reverses GABAA receptor α3 subunit-mediated anxiolytic effects on stress-induced hyperthermia

Stress-related disorders are associated with dysfunction of both serotonergic and GABAergic pathways, and clinically effective anxiolytics act via both neurotransmitter systems. As there is evidence that the GABA(A) and the serotonin receptor system interact, a serotonergic component in the anxiolytic actions of benzodiazepines could be present. The main aim of the present study was to investigate whether the anxiolytic effects of (non-)selective alpha subunit GABA(A) receptor agonists could be reversed with 5-HT1A receptor blockade using the stress-induced hyperthermia (SIH) paradigm. The 5-HT1A receptor antagonist WAY-100635 (0.1-1 mg/kg) reversed the SIH-reducing effects of the non-alpha-subunit selective GABA(A) receptor agonist diazepam (1-4 mg/kg) and the GABA(A) receptor alpha(3)-subunit selective agonist TP003 (1 mg/kg), whereas WAY-100635 alone was without effect on the SIH response or basal body temperature. At the same time, co-administration of WAY-100635 with diazepam or TP003 reduced basal body temperature. WAY-100635 did not affect the SIH response when combined with the preferential alpha(1)-subunit GABA(A) receptor agonist zolpidem (10 mg/kg), although zolpidem markedly reduced basal body temperature. The present study suggests an interaction between GABA(A) receptor alpha-subunits and 5-HT1A receptor activation in the SIH response. Specifically, our data indicate that benzodiazepines affect serotonergic signaling via GABA(A) receptor alpha(3)-subunits. Further understanding of the interactions between the GABA(A) and serotonin system in reaction to stress may be valuable in the search for novel anxiolytic drugs

Adiposity and Age Explain Most of the Association between Physical Activity and Fitness in Physically Active Men

BACKGROUND: To determine if there is an association between physical activity assessed by the short version of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ) and cardiorespiratory and muscular fitness. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: One hundred and eighty-two young males (age range: 20-55 years) completed the short form of the IPAQ to assess physical activity. Body composition (dual-energy X-Ray absorptiometry), muscular fitness (static and dynamic muscle force and power, vertical jump height, running speed [30 m sprint], anaerobic capacity [300 m running test]) and cardiorespiratory fitness (estimated VO(2)max: 20 m shuttle run test) were also determined in all subjects. Activity-related energy expenditure of moderate and vigorous intensity (EEPA(moderate) and EEPA(vigorous), respectively) was inversely associated with indices of adiposity (r = -0.21 to -0.37, P<0.05). Cardiorespiratory fitness (VO(2)max) was positively associated with LogEEPA(moderate) (r = 0.26, P<0.05) and LogEEPA(vigorous) (r = 0.27). However, no association between VO(2)max with LogEEPA(moderate), LogEPPA(vigorous) and LogEEPA(total) was observed after adjusting for the percentage of body fat. Multiple stepwise regression analysis to predict VO(2)max from LogEEPA(walking), LogEEPA(moderate), LogEEPA(vigorous), LogEEPA(total), age and percentage of body fat (%fat) showed that the %fat alone explained 62% of the variance in VO(2)max and that the age added another 10%, while the other variables did not add predictive value to the model [VO(2)max  = 129.6-(25.1× Log %fat) - (34.0× Log age); SEE: 4.3 ml.kg(-1). min(-1); R(2) = 0.72 (P<0.05)]. No positive association between muscular fitness-related variables and physical activity was observed, even after adjusting for body fat or body fat and age. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Adiposity and age are the strongest predictors of VO(2)max in healthy men. The energy expended in moderate and vigorous physical activities is inversely associated with adiposity. Muscular fitness does not appear to be associated with physical activity as assessed by the IPAQ

Pleasure in decision-making situations

BACKGROUND: This study explores the role of pleasure in decision making. RESULTS: In Experiment 1, 12 subjects were presented with a questionnaire containing 46 items taken from the literature. Twenty-three items described a situation where a decision should be made and ended with a suggested solution. The other items served as filler items. The subjects were requested not to make a decision but to rate the pleasure or displeasure they experienced when reading the situation described in the item. The subjects' ratings were then compared to the decisions on the same situations made by the other subjects of the studies published by other workers. The ratings of pleasure/displeasure given by our subjects correlated significantly with the choices published by other authors. This result satisfies a necessary condition for pleasure to be the key of the decision making process in theoretical situations. In Experiment 2, a new group of 12 subjects rated their experience of pleasure/displeasure when reading various versions of 50 situations taken from daily life where an ethical decision had to be made (Questionnaire I) including 200 items. This was followed by a multiple-choice test with the 50 situations (Questionnaire II) using the same 200 items and offering the various behaviors. Subjects tended to choose ethical and unethical responses corresponding to their highest pleasure rating within each problem. In all cases the subjects' behavior was higher than chance level, and thus, followed the trend to maximize pleasure. In Experiment 3, 12 subjects reading 50 mathematical short problems followed by correct and incorrect versions of the answer to the problem (Questionnaire III), including 200 items. This was followed by a multiple-choice mathematical test with the 50 problems (Questionnaire IV) using the same 200 items and offering the correct and incorrect answers. In questionnaire IV, subjects tended to choose correct as well as incorrect responses corresponding to their highest hedonic rating within each problem. In all cases the subjects' behavior was higher than chance level, and thus, followed the trend to maximize pleasure. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the three experiments support the hypothesis according to which decisions are made in the hedonic dimension of conscious experience

Variation in LPA Is Associated with Lp(a) Levels in Three Populations from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

The distribution of lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] levels can differ dramatically across diverse racial/ethnic populations. The extent to which genetic variation in LPA can explain these differences is not fully understood. To explore this, 19 LPA tagSNPs were genotyped in 7,159 participants from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III). NHANES III is a diverse population-based survey with DNA samples linked to hundreds of quantitative traits, including serum Lp(a). Tests of association between LPA variants and transformed Lp(a) levels were performed across the three different NHANES subpopulations (non-Hispanic whites, non-Hispanic blacks, and Mexican Americans). At a significance threshold of p<0.0001, 15 of the 19 SNPs tested were strongly associated with Lp(a) levels in at least one subpopulation, six in at least two subpopulations, and none in all three subpopulations. In non-Hispanic whites, three variants were associated with Lp(a) levels, including previously known rs6919246 (p = 1.18×10−30). Additionally, 12 and 6 variants had significant associations in non-Hispanic blacks and Mexican Americans, respectively. The additive effects of these associated alleles explained up to 11% of the variance observed for Lp(a) levels in the different racial/ethnic populations. The findings reported here replicate previous candidate gene and genome-wide association studies for Lp(a) levels in European-descent populations and extend these findings to other populations. While we demonstrate that LPA is an important contributor to Lp(a) levels regardless of race/ethnicity, the lack of generalization of associations across all subpopulations suggests that specific LPA variants may be contributing to the observed Lp(a) between-population variance