Statistical modeling of ground motion relations for seismic hazard analysis

We introduce a new approach for ground motion relations (GMR) in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), being influenced by the extreme value theory of mathematical statistics. Therein, we understand a GMR as a random function. We derive mathematically the principle of area-equivalence; wherein two alternative GMRs have an equivalent influence on the hazard if these GMRs have equivalent area functions. This includes local biases. An interpretation of the difference between these GMRs (an actual and a modeled one) as a random component leads to a general overestimation of residual variance and hazard. Beside this, we discuss important aspects of classical approaches and discover discrepancies with the state of the art of stochastics and statistics (model selection and significance, test of distribution assumptions, extreme value statistics). We criticize especially the assumption of logarithmic normally distributed residuals of maxima like the peak ground acceleration (PGA). The natural distribution of its individual random component (equivalent to exp(epsilon_0) of Joyner and Boore 1993) is the generalized extreme value. We show by numerical researches that the actual distribution can be hidden and a wrong distribution assumption can influence the PSHA negatively as the negligence of area equivalence does. Finally, we suggest an estimation concept for GMRs of PSHA with a regression-free variance estimation of the individual random component. We demonstrate the advantages of event-specific GMRs by analyzing data sets from the PEER strong motion database and estimate event-specific GMRs. Therein, the majority of the best models base on an anisotropic point source approach. The residual variance of logarithmized PGA is significantly smaller than in previous models. We validate the estimations for the event with the largest sample by empirical area functions. etc

Topically applied vitamin C increases the density of dermal papillae in aged human skin

BACKGROUND: The influence of ageing on the density of the functional entities of the papillae containing nutritive capillaries, here in terms as the papillary index, and the effect of topically applied vitamin C were investigated by confocal laser scanning microscopy (CLSM) in vivo. METHODS: The age dependency of the papillary index was determined by CLSM on 3 different age groups. Additionally, we determined the effect of a topical cream containing 3% vitamin C against the vehicle alone using daily applications for four months on the volar forearm of 33 women. RESULTS: There were significant decreases in the papillary index showing a clear dependency on age. Topical vitamin C resulted in a significant increase of the density of dermal papillae from 4 weeks onward compared to its vehicle. Reproducibility was determined in repeated studies. CONCLUSIONS: Vitamin C has the potential to enhance the density of dermal papillae, perhaps through the mechanism of angiogenesis. Topical vitamin C may have therapeutical effects for partial corrections of the regressive structural changes associated with the aging process

Adverse Drug Reactions in Hospital In-Patients: A Prospective Analysis of 3695 Patient-Episodes

Adverse drug reactions (ADRs) are a major cause of hospital admissions, but recent data on the incidence and clinical characteristics of ADRs which occur following hospital admission, are lacking. Patients admitted to twelve wards over a six-month period in 2005 were assessed for ADRs throughout their admission. Suspected ADRs were recorded and analysed for causality, severity and avoidability and whether they increased the length of stay. Multivariable analysis was undertaken to identify the risk factors for ADRs. The 5% significance level was used when assessing factors for inclusion in multivariable models. Out of the 3695 patient episodes assessed for ADRs, 545 (14.7%, 95% CI 13.6–15.9%) experienced one or more ADRs. Half of ADRs were definitely or possibly avoidable. The patients experiencing ADRs were more likely to be older, female, taking a larger number of medicines, and had a longer length of stay than those without ADRs. However, the only significant predictor of ADRs, from the multivariable analysis of a representative sample of patients, was the number of medicines taken by the patient with each additional medication multiplying the hazard of an ADR episode by 1.14 (95% CI 1.09, 1.20). ADRs directly increased length of stay in 147 (26.8%) patients. The drugs most frequently associated with ADRs were diuretics, opioid analgesics, and anticoagulants. In conclusion, approximately one in seven hospital in-patients experience an ADR, which is a significant cause of morbidity, increasing the length of stay of patients by an average of 0.25 days/patient admission episode. The overall burden of ADRs on hospitals is high, and effective intervention strategies are urgently needed to reduce this burden

Rationalization and Design of the Complementarity Determining Region Sequences in an Antibody-Antigen Recognition Interface

Protein-protein interactions are critical determinants in biological systems. Engineered proteins binding to specific areas on protein surfaces could lead to therapeutics or diagnostics for treating diseases in humans. But designing epitope-specific protein-protein interactions with computational atomistic interaction free energy remains a difficult challenge. Here we show that, with the antibody-VEGF (vascular endothelial growth factor) interaction as a model system, the experimentally observed amino acid preferences in the antibody-antigen interface can be rationalized with 3-dimensional distributions of interacting atoms derived from the database of protein structures. Machine learning models established on the rationalization can be generalized to design amino acid preferences in antibody-antigen interfaces, for which the experimental validations are tractable with current high throughput synthetic antibody display technologies. Leave-one-out cross validation on the benchmark system yielded the accuracy, precision, recall (sensitivity) and specificity of the overall binary predictions to be 0.69, 0.45, 0.63, and 0.71 respectively, and the overall Matthews correlation coefficient of the 20 amino acid types in the 24 interface CDR positions was 0.312. The structure-based computational antibody design methodology was further tested with other antibodies binding to VEGF. The results indicate that the methodology could provide alternatives to the current antibody technologies based on animal immune systems in engineering therapeutic and diagnostic antibodies against predetermined antigen epitopes

The potential benefits of low-molecular-weight heparins in cancer patients

Cancer patients are at increased risk of venous thromboembolism due to a range of factors directly related to their disease and its treatment. Given the high incidence of post-surgical venous thromboembolism in cancer patients and the poor outcomes associated with its development, thromboprophylaxis is warranted. A number of evidence-based guidelines delineate anticoagulation regimens for venous thromboembolism treatment, primary and secondary prophylaxis, and long-term anticoagulation in cancer patients. However, many give equal weight to several different drugs and do not make specific recommendations regarding duration of therapy. In terms of their efficacy and safety profiles, practicality of use, and cost-effectiveness the low-molecular-weight heparins are at least comparable to, and offer several advantages over, other available antithrombotics in cancer patients. In addition, data are emerging that the antithrombotics, and particularly low-molecular-weight heparins, may exert an antitumor effect which could contribute to improved survival in cancer patients when given for long-term prophylaxis. Such findings reinforce the importance of thromboprophylaxis with low-molecular-weight heparin in cancer patients

Special article: physician burnout-the experience of three physicians

No abstract available. Article truncated at 150 words. Our fellowship held a discussion on physician burnout which was facilitated by Kris Cooper PhD, a psychologist who has long experience working with struggling physicians. We were joined by three physicians who volunteered to share their personal experiences regarding burnout. Each of these three physicians are exceptional in their devotion to their profession, high self-expectation, and level of professional achievement. Yet the commendable personal characteristics they share may have actually set them up to ultimately suffer burnout. Each of them responded to burnout in a different way. The first physician is an intensivist who left work suddenly 6 months ago, likely never to return. Over a long career, this physician had earned the respect of his colleagues and was beloved by the nurses for seeming to always knowing the right thing to do and dedicating himself fully to the care of the sickest patients and their families. For most of ..