The population genetic structure of the urchin Centrostephanus rodgersii in New Zealand with links to Australia

© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021Publishe

The fallacy of placing confidence in confidence intervals

Interval estimates – estimates of parameters that include an allowance for sampling uncertainty – have long been touted as a key component of statistical analyses. There are several kinds of interval estimates, but the most popular are confidence intervals (CIs): intervals that contain the true parameter value in some known proportion of repeated samples, on average. The width of confidence intervals is thought to index the precision of an estimate; CIs are thought to be a guide to which parameter values are plausible or reasonable; and the confidence coefficient of the interval (e.g., 95 %) is thought to index the plausibility that the true parameter is included in the interval. We show in a number of examples that CIs do not necessarily have any of these properties, and can lead to unjustified or arbitrary inferences. For this reason, we caution against relying upon confidence interval theory to justify interval estimates, and suggest that other theories of interval estimation should be used instead

Correction to: Factors associated with water service continuity for the Rural Populations of Bangladesh, Pakistan, Ethiopia, and Mozambique (Environmental Science and Technology (2019) 53:8 (4355-4363) DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.8b07173)

In the Results section of the originally published article,1 there are several instances where we incorrectly reported predicted water service continuity (WSC) values as odds ratios (OR). We have provided a corrected version of the relevant text in the Results section below, with the updated text (i.e., WSC) shown in bold. The error does not affect the figures or conclusions of the article. RESULTS Pakistan. Page 4359. "⋯ the model predicted higher WSC for tube wells/boreholes (WSC = 95%, CI = 75-99%), piped supply (WSC = 80%, CI = 47-95%), and other water sources (WSC = 88%, CI = 51-98%) compared to when financial contributions were not made for tube wells/boreholes (WSC = 85%, CI = 51-97%), piped supply (WSC = 57%, CI = 23- 85%), and other water sources (WSC = 70%, CI = 28-94%)." Ethiopia. Page 4359. "The model predicted WSC for springs (WSC = 91%, CI = 54-99%), surface water (WSC = 82%, CI = 36-97%), and other water sources (WSC = 79%, CI = 42-95%) to be higher than tube wells/boreholes (WSC = 73%, CI = 24-96%) when holding⋯" Mozambique. Page 4360. "⋯ the model predicted sources with good water appearance to have higher WSC for tube wells/boreholes (WSC = 97%, CI = 88-99%), dug wells (WSC = 98%, CI = 90-100%), surface water (WSC = 99%, CI = 93-100%), and other water sources (WSC = 98%, CI = 92- 99%) compared to tube wells/boreholes (WSC = 93%, CI = 77-98%), dug wells (WSC = 94%, CI = 80-99%), surface water (WSC = 96%, CI = 85-99%), and other water sources (WSC = 94%, CI = 85-98%) with poor water appearance."

The integrated care pathway reduced the number of hospital days by half: a prospective comparative study of patients with acute hip fracture

BACKGROUND: The incidence of hip fracture is expected to increase during the coming years, demanding greater resources and improved effectiveness on this group of patients. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the effectiveness of an integrated care pathway (ICP) in patients with an acute fracture of the hip. METHODS: A nonrandomized prospective study comparing a consecutive series of patients treated by the conventional pathway to a newer intervention. 112 independently living patients aged 65 years or older admitted to the hospital with a hip fracture were consecutively selected. Exclusion criteria were pathological fracture and severe cognitive impairment. An ICP was developed with the intention of creating a care path with rapid pre-operative attention, increased continuity and an accelerated training programme based on the individual patient's prerequisites and was used as a guidance for each patient's tailored care in the intervention group (N = 56) The main outcome measure was the length of hospital stay. Secondary outcomes were the amount of time from the emergency room to the ward, to surgery and to first ambulation, as well as in-hospital complications and 30-day readmission rate. RESULTS: The intervention group had a significantly shorter length of hospital stay (12.2 vs. 26.3 days; p < 0.000), a shorter time to first ambulation (41 vs. 49 h; p = 0.01), fewer pressure wounds (8 vs. 19; p = 0.02) and medical complications (5 vs. 14; p = 0.003) than the comparison group. No readmissions occurred within 30 days post-intervention in either group. CONCLUSION: Implementing an ICP for patients with a hip fracture was found to significantly reduce the length of hospital stay and improve the quality of care

Falls Assessment Clinical Trial (FACT): design, interventions, recruitment strategies and participant characteristics

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Guidelines recommend multifactorial intervention programmes to prevent falls in older adults but there are few randomised controlled trials in a real life health care setting. We describe the rationale, intervention, study design, recruitment strategies and baseline characteristics of participants in a randomised controlled trial of a multifactorial falls prevention programme in primary health care.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Participants are patients from 19 primary care practices in Hutt Valley, New Zealand aged 75 years and over who have fallen in the past year and live independently. Two recruitment strategies were used – waiting room screening and practice mail-out. Intervention participants receive a community based nurse assessment of falls and fracture risk factors, home hazards, referral to appropriate community interventions, and strength and balance exercise programme. Control participants receive usual care and social visits. Outcome measures include number of falls and injuries over 12 months, balance, strength, falls efficacy, activities of daily living, quality of life, and physical activity levels.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>312 participants were recruited (69% women). Of those who had fallen, 58% of people screened in the practice waiting rooms and 40% when screened by practice letter were willing to participate. Characteristics of participants recruited using the two methods are similar (p > 0.05). Mean age of all participants was 81 years (SD 5). On average participants have 7 medical conditions, take 5.5 medications (29% on psychotropics) with a median of 2 falls (interquartile range 1, 3) in the previous year.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The two recruitment strategies and the community based intervention delivery were feasible and successful, identifying a high risk group with multiple falls. Recruitment in the waiting room gave higher response rates but was less efficient than practice mail-out. Testing the effectiveness of an evidence based intervention in a 'real life' setting is important.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>Australian Clinical Trials Register ID 12605000054617.</p

Physics of Neutron Star Crusts

The physics of neutron star crusts is vast, involving many different research fields, from nuclear and condensed matter physics to general relativity. This review summarizes the progress, which has been achieved over the last few years, in modeling neutron star crusts, both at the microscopic and macroscopic levels. The confrontation of these theoretical models with observations is also briefly discussed.Comment: 182 pages, published version available at <http://www.livingreviews.org/lrr-2008-10

Modelling human visual navigation using multi-view scene reconstruction

It is often assumed that humans generate a 3D reconstruction of the environment, either in egocentric or world-based coordinates, but the steps involved are unknown. Here, we propose two reconstruction-based models, evaluated using data from two tasks in immersive virtual reality. We model the observer’s prediction of landmark location based on standard photogrammetric methods and then combine location predictions to compute likelihood maps of navigation behaviour. In one model, each scene point is treated independently in the reconstruction; in the other, the pertinent variable is the spatial relationship between pairs of points. Participants viewed a simple environment from one location, were transported (virtually) to another part of the scene and were asked to navigate back. Error distributions varied substantially with changes in scene layout; we compared these directly with the likelihood maps to quantify the success of the models. We also measured error distributions when participants manipulated the location of a landmark to match the preceding interval, providing a direct test of the landmark-location stage of the navigation models. Models such as this, which start with scenes and end with a probabilistic prediction of behaviour, are likely to be increasingly useful for understanding 3D vision

No Evidence That Gratitude Enhances Neural Performance Monitoring or Conflict-Driven Control

It has recently been suggested that gratitude can benefit self-regulation by reducing impulsivity during economic decision making. We tested if comparable benefits of gratitude are observed for neural performance monitoring and conflict-driven self-control. In a pre-post design, 61 participants were randomly assigned to either a gratitude or happiness condition, and then performed a pre-induction flanker task. Subsequently, participants recalled an autobiographical event where they had felt grateful or happy, followed by a post-induction flanker task. Despite closely following existing protocols, participants in the gratitude condition did not report elevated gratefulness compared to the happy group. In regard to self-control, we found no association between gratitude--operationalized by experimental condition or as a continuous predictor--and any control metric, including flanker interference, post-error adjustments, or neural monitoring (the error-related negativity, ERN). Thus, while gratitude might increase economic patience, such benefits may not generalize to conflict-driven control processes