TI-games I: An Exploration of Type Indeterminacy In Strategic Decision-Making

The Type Indeterminacy model is a theoretical framework that formalizes the constructive preference perspective suggested by Kahneman and Tversky. In this paper we explore an extention of the TI-model from simple to strategic decision-making. A 2X2 game is investigated. We first show that in a one-shot simultaneaous move setting the TI-model is equivalent to a standard incomplete information model. We then let the game be preceded by a cheap-talk promise exchange game. We show in an example that in the TI-model the promise stage can have impact on next following behavior when the standard classical model predicts no impact whatsoever. The TI approach differs from other behavioral approaches in identifying the source of the effect of cheap-talk promises in the intrinsic indeterminacy of the players' type.Comment: 18

Fermionic Molecular Dynamics for nuclear dynamics and thermodynamics

A new Fermionic Molecular Dynamics (FMD) model based on a Skyrme functional is proposed in this paper. After introducing the basic formalism, some first applications to nuclear structure and nuclear thermodynamics are presentedComment: 5 pages, Proceedings of the French-Japanese Symposium, September 2008. To be published in Int. J. of Mod. Phys.

Time consistent discounting

A possibly immortal agent tries to maximise its summed discounted rewards over time, where discounting is used to avoid infinite utilities and encourage the agent to value current rewards more than future ones. Some commonly used discount functions lead to time-inconsistent behavior where the agent changes its plan over time. These inconsistencies can lead to very poor behavior. We generalise the usual discounted utility model to one where the discount function changes with the age of the agent. We then give a simple characterisation of time-(in)consistent discount functions and show the existence of a rational policy for an agent that knows its discount function is time-inconsistent

A note on interdependence as a specification error

In an earlier paper on "Interdependence as a Specification Error," Strotz has considered a recursive model with endogenous variables lagged by θ; letting θ go to 0, he argued that the likelihood function of the limit form of the model differed from the limit form of the likelihood function of the model. We show here that the two limits are obtained under different underlying assumptions; these alternative assumptions are brought out explicitly; under fixed assumptions, the two methods are shown to yield identical results

An Exploration of Type Indeterminacy in Strategic Decision-making

In this paper we explore an extension of the Type Indeterminacy model of decision-making to strategic decision-making. A 2×2 game is investigated. We first show that in a one-shot simultaneous move setting the TI-model is equivalent to the standard Bayes-Harsanyi model. We then let the game be preceded by a cheap-talk promise game. We show in an example that in the TI-model the promise stage can have an impact on the next following behavior when the standard Bayes-Harsanyi model predicts no impact whatsoever. The TI approach differs from other behavioral approaches in identifying the source of the effect of cheap-talk promises in the intrinsic indeterminacy of the players' type

A causal algebra for dynamic flow networks

Over the past decades there has been considerable research to develop various dynamic forms of Bayesian Networks (BNs) and a parallel development in the field of causal BNs. However, linking these two fields is subtle. In this paper we demonstrate that, for classes of models exhibiting mass balance, it is necessary to first redefine the stochastic variables in a process using a decomposition which gives rise to a class of particular Dynamic Linear Models. These models on the transformed space can be interpreted as a dynamic form of a causal BN. A manipulation algebra is then defined to enable the prediction of effects of interventions that would not have been obtainable using the current Causal algebras. The necessary deconstruction of the processes and the algorithms to determine the effects of manipulations on the original process are demonstrated using a simple example of a supply chain in a hypothetical product market