Developing a predictive modelling capacity for a climate change-vulnerable blanket bog habitat: Assessing 1961-1990 baseline relationships

Aim: Understanding the spatial distribution of high priority habitats and developing predictive models using climate and environmental variables to replicate these distributions are desirable conservation goals. The aim of this study was to model and elucidate the contributions of climate and topography to the distribution of a priority blanket bog habitat in Ireland, and to examine how this might inform the development of a climate change predictive capacity for peat-lands in Ireland. Methods: Ten climatic and two topographic variables were recorded for grid cells with a spatial resolution of 1010 km, covering 87% of the mainland land surface of Ireland. Presence-absence data were matched to these variables and generalised linear models (GLMs) fitted to identify the main climatic and terrain predictor variables for occurrence of the habitat. Candidate predictor variables were screened for collinearity, and the accuracy of the final fitted GLM was evaluated using fourfold cross-validation based on the area under the curve (AUC) derived from a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plot. The GLM predicted habitat occurrence probability maps were mapped against the actual distributions using GIS techniques. Results: Despite the apparent parsimony of the initial GLM using only climatic variables, further testing indicated collinearity among temperature and precipitation variables for example. Subsequent elimination of the collinear variables and inclusion of elevation data produced an excellent performance based on the AUC scores of the final GLM. Mean annual temperature and total mean annual precipitation in combination with elevation range were the most powerful explanatory variable group among those explored for the presence of blanket bog habitat. Main conclusions: The results confirm that this habitat distribution in general can be modelled well using the non-collinear climatic and terrain variables tested at the grid resolution used. Mapping the GLM-predicted distribution to the observed distribution produced useful results in replicating the projected occurrence of the habitat distribution over an extensive area. The methods developed will usefully inform future climate change predictive modelling for Irelan

Pteridófitas da Serra Negra, Minas Gerais, Brasil

Este trabalho apresenta uma lista de espécies de pteridófitas que ocorrem na Serra Negra, Minas Gerais. A serra está inserida no complexo da Serra da Mantiqueira situada entre Rio Preto, Lima Duarte, Santa Bárbara do Monte Verde e Olaria, tendo seus limites nos pontos 21º58'11"S 43º53'21" W, 22º01'46,4" S 43º52'31,5" W, 21º58'21,4" S 43º50'06,5" W e 21º58'53" S 43º56'08" W. A vegetação da serra é formada por um mosaico de fitofisionomias, sendo encontradas formações florestais (florestas ombrófilas e semidecíduas) e campestres (campos rupestres). O inventário florístico foi realizado entre os anos de 2003 e 2008, em excursões mensais para coleta de amostras e registro de dados. Na serra foram registradas 209 táxons infragenéricos distribuídas em 24 famílias e 75 gêneros. As famílias com maior número de espécies foram Polypodiaceae (40), Dryopteridaceae (33) e Pteridaceae (25). A maioria das espécies (109) foi encontrada ocorrendo exclusivamente no interior de floresta. Em relação ao hábito, 69 espécies foram encontradas exclusivamente como terrestres, 37 como rupícolas ou terrestres e 32 exclusivamente epífitas. Este trabalho revela uma elevada riqueza de pteridófitas na região e indica a importância de estudos desta natureza na conservação e manejo das pteridófitas em Minas Gerais.This work presents an inventory of pteridophyte species that occur in the Serra Negra, of Minas Gerais. The area is part of the Mantiqueira Range, and is situated between the coordinates 21º58'11"S 43º53'21" W, 22º01'4.4" S, 43º52'31.5" W, 21º58'21.4" S, 43º50'06.5" W and 21º58'53" S, 43º56'08" W. The vegetation in the Serra Negra is characterized by a mosaic of different phytophysiognomies, divided into forests (evergreen and seasonal semideciduous forests) and open formations (rocky grasslands). The inventory was carried out from 2003 to 2008, during monthly excursions to collect botanical material and data in the study area. A total of 209 species, distributed in 24 families and 75 genera, were recorded. The families with the highest number of species were Polypodiaceae (40), Dryopteridaceae (33) and Pteridaceae (25). More than the half (110) of the inventoried species were recorded exclusively in the forests formations. Sixty-nine species were terrestrial, 37 were saxicolous or terrestrial and 32 were epiphytes. This work shows that this region is rich in ferns and reveals the importance of this kind of study for conservation and management of pteridophytes in the state of Minas Gerais