How population size affects party systems and cabinet duration

This study develops and tests theoretical formulas for linking country size and party system characteristics. For countries using one-seat electoral districts or nationwide districts, the averages of the largest seat-share, effective number of assembly parties and mean duration of cabinets can be predicted based solely on population. For countries allocating seats by PR in multi-seat districts, the averages of these characteristics can be predicted based on population and district magnitude. We show that first-past-the-post countries of less than one million tend to have highly dominant largest parties and one-and-a-half party assemblies, rather than a balance of two parties. For larger countries, and PR countries of any size, population is not destiny, as far as party system is concerned

Behind the cube rule: implications of and evidence against a fractal electoral geography

An earlier version of this paper was issued as Discussion Papers in Economics, 01/03. The definitive, peer-reviewed and edited version of this article is published in Environment and Planning A, August 2003 35(8) p. 1405-1414In 1909 Parker Smith showed that the ratio of seats won by the two major parties in Britain was close to the cube of the ratio of their votes. Taagepera and Shugart argue, wrongly, that a fractal electoral map implies this. In fact their premises imply that the seats’ ratio will be the votes’ ratio to the power of , not 3. However, in the six countries we examine, the figure is between 2 and 3. This implies that the electoral map is nonfractal, political allegiances becoming less ‘clustered’ as you move from a macro to a micro scale. Taking the U.K., we ask if this is due to the geographical pattern of income distribution, and find that this is even further away from fractality than is voting. This fits the well known ‘neighborhood effect’ whereby poor (rich) people in rich (poor) constituencies vote as if richer (poorer) than they really are

Alpha-decay Rates of Yb and Gd in Solar Neutrino Detectors

The $\alpha$-decay rates for the nuclides $^{168,170,171,172,173,174,176}$Yb and $^{148,150,152,154}$Gd have been estimated from transmission probabilities in a systematic $\alpha$-nucleus potential and from an improved fit to $\alpha$-decay rates in the rare-earth mass region. Whereas ${\alpha}$-decay of $^{152}$Gd in natural gadolinium is a severe obstacle for the use of gadolinium as a low-energy solar-neutrino detector, we show that ${\alpha}$-decay does not contribute significantly to the background in a ytterbium detector. An extremely long ${\alpha}$-decay lifetime of $^{168}$Yb is obtained from calculation, which may be close to the sensitivity limit in a low-background solar neutrino detector.Comment: 12 pages, 1 figure; An author name was correcte

Baltic Quest for a Hungarian Path, 1965

The Soviet Union annexed the Baltic states in August 1940, an act Western democracies refused to recognize. Under somewhat different circumstances, the Baltic states could have turned, instead, into satellite 'People's Democracies' like Hungary - Communist-ruled but outside the Soviet Union. The annexed Baltic states played a major disruptive role during the demise of the Soviet Union. Might the Soviet Union have survived, had it disgorged the Baltic ferment in good time? The satellite option received mention repeatedly, from as early as June 1940 to as late as 1989. Here the focus is on 1965, when three Estonian refugees proposed a compromise: Washington might encourage Moscow to turn the Baltic states into satellites, the governments of which the USA could then recognize. For the Baltic nations, the main change would have been to curtail the influx of Russians. The reactions to this proposal are reviewed, ending with the question: what do alternate histories tell us about the actual one?. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC

Party finance reform as constitutional engineering? The effectiveness and unintended consequences of party finance reform in France and Britain

In both Britain and France, party funding was traditionally characterized by a laissez faire approach and a conspicuous lack of regulation. In France, this was tantamount to a 'legislative vacuum'. In the last two decades, however, both countries have sought to fundamentally reform their political finance regulation regimes. This prompted, in Britain, the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000, and in France a bout of 'legislative incontinence' — profoundly transforming the political finance regime between 1988 and 1995. This article seeks to explore and compare the impacts of the reforms in each country in a bid to explain the unintended consequences of the alternative paths taken and the effectiveness of the new party finance regime in each country. It finds that constitutional engineering through party finance reform is a singularly inexact science, largely due to the imperfect nature of information, the limited predictability of cause and effect, and the constraining influence of non-party actors, such as the Constitutional Council in France, and the Electoral Commission in Britain

On the alpha activity of natural tungsten isotopes

The indication for the alpha decay of 180-W with a half-life T1/2=1.1+0.8-0.4(stat)+-0.3(syst)x10^18 yr has been observed for the first time with the help of the super-low background 116-CdWO_4 crystal scintillators. In conservative approach the lower limit on half-life of 180-W has been established as T1/2>0.7x10^18 yr at 90% C.L. Besides, new T1/2 bounds were set for alpha decay of 182-W, 183-W, 184-W and 186-W at the level of 10^20 yr.Comment: 16 pages, 8 figures, accepted in Phys. Rev.