Bias of Maximum-Likelihood estimates in logistic and Cox regression models: A comparative simulation study

Parameter estimates of logistic and Cox regression models are biased for finite samples. In a simulation study we investigated for both models the behaviour of the bias in relation to sample size and further parameters. In the case of a dichotomous explanatory variable x the magnitude of the bias is strongly influenced by the baseline risk defined by the constants of the models and the risk resulting for the high risk group. To conduct a direct comparison of the bias of the two models analyses were based on the same simulated data. Overall, the bias of the two models appear to be similar, however, the Cox model has less bias in situations where the baseline risk is high

Perturbation Analysis of the Kuramoto Phase Diffusion Equation Subject to Quenched Frequency Disorder

The Kuramoto phase diffusion equation is a nonlinear partial differential equation which describes the spatio-temporal evolution of a phase variable in an oscillatory reaction diffusion system. Synchronization manifests itself in a stationary phase gradient where all phases throughout a system evolve with the same velocity, the synchronization frequency. The formation of concentric waves can be explained by local impurities of higher frequency which can entrain their surroundings. Concentric waves in synchronization also occur in heterogeneous systems, where the local frequencies are distributed randomly. We present a perturbation analysis of the synchronization frequency where the perturbation is given by the heterogeneity of natural frequencies in the system. The nonlinearity in form of dispersion, leads to an overall acceleration of the oscillation for which the expected value can be calculated from the second order perturbation terms. We apply the theory to simple topologies, like a line or the sphere, and deduce the dependence of the synchronization frequency on the size and the dimension of the oscillatory medium. We show that our theory can be extended to include rotating waves in a medium with periodic boundary conditions. By changing a system parameter the synchronized state may become quasi degenerate. We demonstrate how perturbation theory fails at such a critical point.Comment: 22 pages, 5 figure

Characterization of Human Endogenous Retrovirus Type K Virus-like Particles Generated from Recombinant Baculoviruses

AbstractThe family of human endogenous retrovirus type K (HERV-K) comprises members with long open reading frames (ORF) for retroviral proteins. The existence of a biologically active provirus with replicative capacities has not yet been demonstrated. To confirm the assumption that HERV-K codes for the previously observed retrovirus-like particles (human teratocarcinoma-derived virus, HTDV) in human teratocarcinoma cells, we have constructed recombinant full-length HERV-K cDNA-based baculoviruses withgag, pro, pol,andenvORFs. Two viral constructs were used for infections of insect cells, one bearing 67 bp of the 5′ untranslated region upstream of the 5′ splice donor (SD) site and of the retroviral genes, the second omitting the SD sequence. For both recombinant viruses, indirect immunofluorescence and laser scan analyses revealed expression of HERV-K Gag protein. Electron microscopy studies demonstrated efficient production of virus-like particles (VLPs) at the cytoplasmic cell membranes. These VLPs are morphologically identical with the HTDV phenotype. In immunoelectron microscopy of ultrathin frozen sections, anti-HERV-K Gag antibodies specifically reacted with HERV-K VLPs. In Western blots, in addition to the 76-kDa precursor protein, the putative major core protein with an apparent molecular mass of 32 kDa exhibited predominant immunoreactivity with anti-Gag antiserum. In contrast, neither HERV-K Env nor cORF proteins could be detected due to inefficient mRNA splicing. Purified particles from insect cell culture supernatants tested in an ultrasensitive reverse transcriptase assay revealed weak polymerase activity. The data demonstrate that HERV-K codes for retroviral particles of the HTDV phenotype

Zipf law in the popularity distribution of chess openings

We perform a quantitative analysis of extensive chess databases and show that the frequencies of opening moves are distributed according to a power-law with an exponent that increases linearly with the game depth, whereas the pooled distribution of all opening weights follows Zipf's law with universal exponent. We propose a simple stochastic process that is able to capture the observed playing statistics and show that the Zipf law arises from the self-similar nature of the game tree of chess. Thus, in the case of hierarchical fragmentation the scaling is truly universal and independent of a particular generating mechanism. Our findings are of relevance in general processes with composite decisions.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figure

Circulating cell adhesion molecules in metabolically healthy obesity

Background/Objectives People with metabolically healthy obesity (MHO) may still have an increased risk for cardiovascular mortality compared to metabolically healthy lean (MHL) individuals. However, the mechanisms linking obesity to cardiovascular diseases are not entirely understood. We therefore tested the hypothesis that circulating cell adhesion molecules (CAMs) are higher in MHO compared to MHL individuals. Subjects/Methods Serum concentrations of soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (sICAM-1), soluble vascular adhesion molecule-1 (sVCAM-1), E-selectin and P-selectin were measured in age- and sex-matched groups of MHL (n = 32), MHO categorized into BMI-matched insulin sensitive (IS, n = 32) or insulin resistant (IR) obesity (n = 32) and people with metabolically unhealthy obesity (MUO, n = 32). Results Indeed, individuals with MHO have significantly higher sICAM-1, E-selectin, and P-selectin serum concentrations compared to MHL people. However, these CAMs are still significantly lower in IS compared to IR MHO. There was no difference between the groups in sVCAM-1 serum concentrations. Compared to all other groups, circulating adhesion molecules were significantly higher in individuals with MUO. Conclusions These findings suggest that obesity-related increased cardiovascular risk is reflected and may be mediated by significantly higher CAMs. The mechanisms causing elevated adhesion molecules even in the absence of overt cardio-metabolic risk factors and whether circulating CAMs could predict cardiovascular events need to be explored