Hindsight and Sequential Rationality of Correlated Play

Driven by recent successes in two-player, zero-sum game solving and playing, artificial intelligence work on games has increasingly focused on algorithms that produce equilibrium-based strategies. However, this approach has been less effective at producing competent players in general-sum games or those with more than two players than in two-player, zero-sum games. An appealing alternative is to consider adaptive algorithms that ensure strong performance in hindsight relative to what could have been achieved with modified behavior. This approach also leads to a game-theoretic analysis, but in the correlated play that arises from joint learning dynamics rather than factored agent behavior at equilibrium. We develop and advocate for this hindsight rationality framing of learning in general sequential decision-making settings. To this end, we re-examine mediated equilibrium and deviation types in extensive-form games, thereby gaining a more complete understanding and resolving past misconceptions. We present a set of examples illustrating the distinct strengths and weaknesses of each type of equilibrium in the literature, and prove that no tractable concept subsumes all others. This line of inquiry culminates in the definition of the deviation and equilibrium classes that correspond to algorithms in the counterfactual regret minimization (CFR) family, relating them to all others in the literature. Examining CFR in greater detail further leads to a new recursive definition of rationality in correlated play that extends sequential rationality in a way that naturally applies to hindsight evaluation.Comment: Technical report for a paper in the proceedings of the thirty-fifth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-21), February 2-9, 2021, Virtual. 26 pages and 15 figure

Production efficiency of nodal and zonal pricing in imperfectly competitive electricity markets

Electricity markets employ different congestion management methods to handle the limited transmission capacity of the power system. This paper compares production efficiency and other aspects of nodal and zonal pricing. We consider two types of zonal pricing: zonal pricing with Available Transmission Capacity (ATC) and zonal pricing with Flow-Based Market Coupling (FBMC).We develop a mathematical model to study the imperfect competition under zonal pricing with FBMC. Zonal pricing with FBMC is employed in two stages, a day-ahead market stage and a re-dispatch stage. We show that the optimality conditions and market clearing conditions can be reformulated as a mixed integer linear program (MILP), which is straightforward to implement. Zonal pricing with ATC and nodal pricing is used as our benchmarks. The imperfect competition under zonal pricing with ATC and nodal pricing are also formulated as MILP models. All MILP models are demonstrated on 6-node and the modified IEEE 24-node systems. Our numerical results show that the zonal pricing with ATC results in large production inefficiencies due to the incdec-game. Improving the representation of the transmission network as in the zonal pricing with FBMC mitigates the inc-dec game

Thymic stromal lymphopoietin is released by human epithelial cells in response to microbes, trauma, or inflammation and potently activates mast cells

Compelling evidence suggests that the epithelial cell–derived cytokine thymic stromal lymphopoietin (TSLP) may initiate asthma or atopic dermatitis through a dendritic cell–mediated T helper (Th)2 response. Here, we describe how TSLP might initiate and aggravate allergic inflammation in the absence of T lymphocytes and immunoglobulin E antibodies via the innate immune system. We show that TSLP, synergistically with interleukin 1 and tumor necrosis factor, stimulates the production of high levels of Th2 cytokines by human mast cells (MCs). We next report that TSLP is released by primary epithelial cells in response to certain microbial products, physical injury, or inflammatory cytokines. Direct epithelial cell–mediated, TSLP-dependent activation of MCs may play a central role in “intrinsic” forms of atopic diseases and explain the aggravating role of infection and scratching in these diseases

A new skilled emigration dynamic: Portuguese nurses and recruitment in the southern European periphery

Philippine and Indian nurses have been emigrating for many years, but Portu-guese nurses and other South and East Europeans have recently started to replace them in the UK. This study focuses on the recent migration of Portuguese nurses – both as emigrants and immigrants – within the European area. The research mixes extensive and intensive methodologies. Health agencies start-ed to recruit heavily among Portuguese nurses after 2008, which often led to their decision to leave the country with a guaranteed job abroad. In turn, this dynamic of emigration being motived by institutional and recruitment networks was caused by a structural factor: the barriers erected in 2010 by UK immigration pol-icies against the contracting of nurses from outside the EU, which led the job agencies to search for nurses inside Europe. The chapter’s main finding is that alt-hough the push factor of economic recession and increased unemployment that hit the European periphery after the 2008 financial crisis played a role in the out-flow of Portuguese nurses, it was the pull factor that was more significant. The second finding is that this new mass emigration of nurses is not just a Portuguese phenomenon but rather is in keeping with other Southern and East European pe-ripheral countries.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio