Particle filters for high‐dimensional geoscience applications: a review

Particle filters contain the promise of fully nonlinear data assimilation. They have been applied in numerous science areas, including the geosciences, but their application to high-dimensional geoscience systems has been limited due to their inefficiency in high-dimensional systems in standard settings. However, huge progress has been made, and this limitation is disappearing fast due to recent developments in proposal densities, the use of ideas from (optimal) transportation, the use of localization and intelligent adaptive resampling strategies. Furthermore, powerful hybrids between particle filters and ensemble Kalman filters and variational methods have been developed. We present a state-of-the-art discussion of present efforts of developing particle filters for high-dimensional nonlinear geoscience state-estimation problems, with an emphasis on atmospheric and oceanic applications, including many new ideas, derivations and unifications, highlighting hidden connections, including pseudo-code, and generating a valuable tool and guide for the community. Initial experiments show that particle filters can be competitive with present-day methods for numerical weather prediction, suggesting that they will become mainstream soon

The 3D Grazing Collision of Two Black Holes

We present results for two colliding black holes (BHs), with angular momentum, spin, and unequal mass. For the first time gravitational waveforms are computed for a grazing collision from a full 3D numerical evolution. The collision can be followed through the merger to form a single BH, and through part of the ringdown period of the final BH. The apparent horizon is tracked and studied, and physical parameters, such as the mass of the final BH, are computed. The total energy radiated in gravitational waves is shown to be consistent with the total mass of the spacetime and the final BH mass. The implication of these simulations for gravitational wave astronomy is discussed.Comment: 4 pages, 7 figures, revte

Deorbit kit demonstration mission

In Low Earth Orbit, it is possible to use the ambient plasma and the geomagnetic field to exchange momentum with the Earth's magnetosphere without using propellant. A device that allows an efficient momentum exchange is the electrodynamic tether (EDT), a long conductor attached to the satellite. EDT technology has been demonstrated in several past missions, being the Plasma Motor Generator mission (NASA 1993) one of the most successful. Nevertheless, it is not until today that reality has imposed a strong need and a concrete use case for developing this technology. In March 2019, the European Commission project Electrodynamic Tether technology for PAssive Consumable-less deorbit Kit (E.T.PACK) started the design of a new generation EDT. After completing the design phase, the consortium manufactured and is currently testing a Deorbit Kit Demonstrator (DKD) breadboard based on EDT technology. The objective of E.T.PACK is to reach Technology Readiness Level equal to 4 by 2022. The DKD is a standalone 24-kg satellite with the objective to demonstrate the performances of the improved EDT solution and validate its ultra-compact deployment system. The DKD is composed of two modules that will separate in orbit extending a 500-m long tape-like tether. The deployed bare-Aluminium tether will capture electrons from the ambient plasma passively and the circuit will be closed with the ionospheric plasma by using an active electron emitter. E.T.PACK tether will take advantage of several novelties with respect to the mission flown in the past that will allow to optimize the system volume and mass. Once successful demonstrated in orbit, the team plans to develop a suite of EDT systems capable of deorbiting satellites between 200 and 1000 kg from an altitude up to 1200 km in a few months. The work presents the current design status of the de-orbit kit demonstrator breadboard, the simulations of the system deorbit performances and the development approach.This work was supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No.828902 (3M€ E.T.PACK project) and No.101034874 (100K€ BMOM project). SG is supported by an Industrial Ph.D funded by Comunidad de Madrid (135K€ IND2019/TIC17198). The team has recently got 2.5M€ additional financial support from European Union (ETPACK-F project No. 101058166) for the manufacturing and qualification of the In Orbit Demonstration (IOD) by the end of 2025

The effects of assimilating a sub-grid-scale sea ice thickness distribution in a new Arctic sea ice data assimilation system

In the past decade groundbreaking new satellite observations of the Arctic sea ice cover have been made, allowing researchers to understand the state of the Arctic sea ice system in greater detail than before. The derived estimates of sea ice thickness are useful but limited in time and space. In this study the first results of a new sea ice data assimilation system are presented. Observations assimilated (in various combinations) are monthly mean sea ice thickness and monthly mean sea ice thickness distribution from CryoSat-2 and NASA daily Bootstrap sea ice concentration. This system couples the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling's (CPOM) version of the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE) to the localised ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) from the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (PDAF) library. The impact of assimilating a sub-grid-scale sea ice thickness distribution is of particular novelty. The sub-grid-scale sea ice thickness distribution is a fundamental component of sea ice models, playing a vital role in the dynamical and thermodynamical processes, yet very little is known of its true state in the Arctic. This study finds that assimilating CryoSat-2 products for the mean thickness and the sub-grid-scale thickness distribution can have significant consequences for the modelled distribution of the ice thickness across the Arctic and particularly in regions of thick multi-year ice. The assimilation of sea ice concentration, mean sea ice thickness and sub-grid-scale sea ice thickness distribution together performed best when compared to a subset of CryoSat-2 observations held back for validation. Regional model biases are reduced: the thickness of the thickest ice in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) is decreased, but the thickness of the ice in the central Arctic is increased. When comparing the assimilation of mean thickness with the assimilation of sub-grid-scale thickness distribution, it is found that the latter leads to a significant change in the volume of ice in each category. Estimates of the thickest ice improve significantly with the assimilation of sub-grid-scale thickness distribution alongside mean thickness.</p

Simply longer is not better: reversal of theta burst after-effect with prolonged stimulation

From all rTMS protocols at present, the theta burst stimulation (TBS) is considered the most efficient in terms of number of impulses and intensity required during a given stimulation. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of inhibitory and excitatory TBS protocols on motor cortex excitability when the duration of stimulation was doubled. Fourteen healthy volunteers were tested under four conditions: intermittent theta bust stimulation (iTBS), continuous theta burst stimulation (cTBS), prolonged intermittent theta bust stimulation (ProiTBS) and prolonged continuous theta burst stimulation (ProcTBS). The prolonged paradigms were twice as long as the conventional TBS protocols. Conventional facilitatory iTBS converted into inhibitory when it was applied for twice as long, while the normally inhibitory cTBS became facilitatory when the stimulation duration was doubled. Our results show that TBS-induced plasticity cannot be deliberately enhanced simply by prolonging TBS protocols. Instead, when stimulating too long, after-effects will be reversed. This finding supplements findings at the short end of the stimulation duration range, where it was shown that conventional cTBS is excitatory in the first half and switches to inhibition only after the full length protocol. It is relevant for clinical applications for which an ongoing need for further protocol improvement is imminent

Discordance between estimated and measured changes in plasma volume among patients with acute heart failure

AIMS: In acute heart failure (AHF), changes of venous haemoglobin (Hb) concentrations, haematocrit (Hct), and estimated plasma volume (ePV) have been proposed as surrogates of decongestion. These estimates are based on the theoretical assumptions that changes of Hb concentrations and Hct are driven by the intravascular volume status and that the intravascular Hb pool remains stable. The objective of this study was to assess the relationship of changes of measured plasma volume (mPV) with changes of Hb, Hct, and ePV in AHF. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied 36 AHF patients, who received two sequential assessments of mPV, measured red cell volume (mRCV) and measured total blood volume (mTBV) (48 h apart), during the course of diuretic therapy using a novel visible fluorescent injectate (VFI) technique based on the indicator dilution principle. Changes of ePV were calculated based on the Kaplan–Hakim or Strauss formula. AHF patients receiving diuretics (median intravenous furosemide equivalent 160 mg/48 h) displayed a wide range of changes of mPV (−25.4% to +37.0%). Changes in mPV were not significantly correlated with changes of Hb concentration [Pearson's r (r) = −0.241, P = 0.157], Hct (r = −0.307, P = 0.069), ePVKaplan–Hakim (r = 0.228, P = 0.182), or ePVStrauss (r = 0.237, P = 0.163). In contrast to theoretical assumptions, changes of mTBV were poorly correlated with changes of Hb concentrations and some patients displayed unanticipated variability of mRCV, suggesting an unstable intravascular red cell pool. CONCLUSIONS: Changes of Hb or Hct were not reflective of directly measured changes of intravascular volume status in AHF patients. Basing clinical assessment of decongestion on changes of Hb or Hct may misguide clinical decision-making on an individual patient level

Serum creatinine and cystatin C-based estimates of glomerular filtration rate are misleading in acute heart failure

AIMS: We aimed to test whether the endogenous filtration markers serum creatinine or cystatin C and equation-based estimates of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) based on these markers appropriately reflect changes of measured GFR in patients with acute heart failure. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study of 50 hospitalized acute heart failure patients undergoing decongestive therapy, we applied an intravenous visible fluorescent injectate (VFI), consisting of a low molecular weight component to measure GFR and a high molecular weight component to correct for measured plasma volume. Thirty-eight patients had two sequential GFR measurements 48 h apart. The co-primary endpoints of the study were safety of VFI and plasma stability of the high molecular weight component. A key secondary endpoint was to compare changes in measured GFR (mGFR) to changes of serum creatinine, cystatin C and estimated GFR. RESULTS: VFI-based GFR measurements were safe and consistent with plasma stability of the high molecular weight component and glomerular filtration of the low molecular weight component. Filtration marker-based point estimates of GFR, when compared with mGFR, provided only moderate correlation (Pearson's r, range 0.80-0.88, depending on equation used), precision (r(2) , range 0.65-0.78) and accuracy (56%-74% of estimates scored within 30% of mGFR). Correlations of 48-h changes GFR estimates and changes of mGFR were significant (P 15% decrease in mGFR. CONCLUSIONS: In patients hospitalized for acute heart failure, serum creatinine- and cystatin C-based predictions performed poorly in detecting actual changes of GFR. These data challenge current clinical strategies to evaluate dynamics of kidney function in acute heart failure

The comorbidity and co-medication profile of patients with progressive supranuclear palsy

Background: Progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP) is usually diagnosed in elderly. Currently, little is known about comorbidities and the co-medication in these patients. Objectives: To explore the pattern of comorbidities and co-medication in PSP patients according to the known different phenotypes and in comparison with patients without neurodegenerative disease. Methods: Cross-sectional data of PSP and patients without neurodegenerative diseases (non-ND) were collected from three German multicenter observational studies (DescribePSP, ProPSP and DANCER). The prevalence of comorbidities according to WHO ICD-10 classification and the prevalence of drugs administered according to WHO ATC system were analyzed. Potential drug–drug interactions were evaluated using AiDKlinik®. Results: In total, 335 PSP and 275 non-ND patients were included in this analysis. The prevalence of diseases of the circulatory and the nervous system was higher in PSP at first level of ICD-10. Dorsopathies, diabetes mellitus, other nutritional deficiencies and polyneuropathies were more frequent in PSP at second level of ICD-10. In particular, the summed prevalence of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases was higher in PSP patients. More drugs were administered in the PSP group leading to a greater percentage of patients with polypharmacy. Accordingly, the prevalence of potential drug–drug interactions was higher in PSP patients, especially severe and moderate interactions. Conclusions: PSP patients possess a characteristic profile of comorbidities, particularly diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. The eminent burden of comorbidities and resulting polypharmacy should be carefully considered when treating PSP patients

Postsynaptic nigrostriatal dopamine receptors and their role in movement regulation

The article presents the hypothesis that nigrostriatal dopamine may regulate movement by modulation of tone and contraction in skeletal muscles through a concentration-dependent influence on the postsynaptic D1 and D2 receptors on the follow manner: nigrostriatal axons innervate both receptor types within the striatal locus somatotopically responsible for motor control in agonist/antagonist muscle pair around a given joint. D1 receptors interact with lower and D2 receptors with higher dopamine concentrations. Synaptic dopamine concentration increases immediately before movement starts. We hypothesize that increasing dopamine concentrations stimulate first the D1 receptors and reduce muscle tone in the antagonist muscle and than stimulate D2 receptors and induce contraction in the agonist muscle. The preceded muscle tone reduction in the antagonist muscle eases the efficient contraction of the agonist. Our hypothesis is applicable for an explanation of physiological movement regulation, different forms of movement pathology and therapeutic drug effects. Further, this hypothesis provides a theoretical basis for experimental investigation of dopaminergic motor control and development of new strategies for treatment of movement disorders