SAMBA: Stochastic Analytical Model with a Bayesian Approach

We develop and estimate a DSGE model for the Brazilian economy, to be used as part of the macroeconomic modeling framework at the Central Bank of Brazil. The model combines the building blocks of standard DSGE models (e.g., price and wage rigidities and adjustment costs) with the following features that better describe the Brazilian economy: (i) a fiscal authority pursuing an explicit target for the primary surplus; (ii) administered or regulated prices as part of consumer prices; (iii) external finance for imports, amplifying the effects of changes in external financial conditions on the economy; and (iv) imported goods used in the production function of differentiated goods. It also includes the presence of financially constrained households. We estimate the model with Bayesian techniques, using data starting in 1999, when inflation targeting was implemented. Model evaluation, based on impulse response functions, moment conditions, variance error decomposition and initial forecasting exercises, suggests that the model can be a useful tool for policy analysis and forecasting.

Effects of omeprazole on mechanisms of gastroesophageal reflux in childhood

Prolonged recordings of esophageal motility have shown that dynamic changes of lower esophageal sphincter (LES) pressure such as transient LES relaxation and LES pressure drifts are the most common mechanisms underlying gastroesophageal reflux (GER). The coexistence of a delayed gastric emptying has also been reported in a high proportion of patients with reflux disease. However, not much information is available on the effects of antireflux therapy on the pathogenetic mechanisms of GER. The purpose of this study was to determine in a group of children with severe reflux disease the effect of omeprazole therapy on motor changes of LES underlying GER as well as on gastric emptying time. Twenty-two children (median age: 6.6 years) with GER disease, refractory to combined ranitidine and cisapride administration, entered into an eight-week omeprazole course. Ten subjects with moderate GER disease served as controls (median age: 6.0 years). Before and after omeprazole administration, the following variables were assessed: esophagitis grading, fasting and fed simultaneous prolonged recording of distal esophageal sphincter pressure (with a sleeve catheter) and intraesophageal pH, LES and esophageal peristalsis amplitude, and gastric emptying time of a mixed solid-liquid meal (measured with gastric ultrasound). As compared to controls, patients showed a higher rate of transient LES relaxation and LES pressure drift (P < 0.01), a reduced amplitude of basal sphincter pressure (P < 0.01) and peristalsis (P < 0.05), and a more prolonged gastric emptying time (P < 0.05). After ending omeprazole, there was no significant change in any of the motor abnormalities of the esophagus and in gastric emptying time despite a marked improvement of symptoms and esophagitis in all patients. Sixteen patients were symptomatic when reevaluated on a clinical basis two months after ending therapy. We conclude that in children with severe GER disease, an abnormally high rate of both transient LES relaxation and LES pressure drift and slow gastric emptying are not affected by omperazole treatment, even though esophageal mucosal damage is markedly improved or cured. These abnormalities represent a primary motor disorder and can be implicated in the refractoriness of reflux disease

Genetic improvement of barley (Hordeum vulgare, L.) in Brazil: yield increase and associated traits.

Barley breeding program in Brazil has focused on characteristics associated with malting for beer purposes as the main economic application for this crop. The breeding process focused on selection for grain yield, disease resistance and malting quality. The objective of this work was to quantify the genetic gain in barley grain yield from 1968 and 2008 in Brazil and to identify the physiological characteristics associated with the increase of grain yield. Field experiments with five 2-row barley cultivars were tested from 2011 to 2013 in the absence of biotic and abiotic stresses and with mechanical restriction to lodging. The ANOVA showed no genetic gain until 1980 with average grain yield of 4.632 kg/ha. After 1980, there was a productivity increase of 59.9 kg/ha/year. No correlation was observed between total maturity biomass and the year of release of the cultivars, while harvest index and plant height, were significantly improved. The main component associated with grain yield was the number of grains/m2 , due to the higher number of spikes/m2 associated to a greater contribution of the tillers in the modern cultivars

Avaliação de impactos econômicos sociais e ambientais de algumas tecnologias geradas pela Embrapa Trigo.

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Variabilidade de cevada (Hordeum vulgare L.) em relação à tolerância ao alumínio.

Orientadora: Carla Andrea Delatorre, Coorientador: Jorge Fernando Pereira

Plantas duplo-haploides de cevada: avaliação da resposta androgenética de genótipos Embrapa entre os anos 2005 ? 2019.

A produção de plantas duplo-haploides, via cultivo de anteras/micrósporos, tem sido amplamente utilizada há muitos anos para estudos de genética básica e aplicada, e como o método mais rápido para alcance da homozigose em programas de melhoramento. O emprego deste método vem sendo usado com relativo sucesso na criação de novas cultivares de cevada. Porém, alguns entraves ainda impedem sua aplicação em maior escala (genótipos recalcitrantes e o grande número de plantas albinas). Assim, este trabalho objetiva identificar, através do cultivo in vitro de anteras e de dados obtidos ao longo de 14 anos, genótipos mais responsivos ao método da androgênese. Para isso, foi feito um levantamento do número de plantas duplo-haploides produzidas entre os anos de 2005 a 2019 (com exceção de 2016), avaliando-se o número de plantas verdes obtidas por genótipo e por espiga. A variável analisada foi plantas verdes/espiga. Os resultados mais expressivos foram observados para os anos de 2013, seguido de 2012 e 2006, onde foi obtida uma média de 5,38; 3,14 e 2,0 plantas verdes por espiga, respectivamente. No entanto, ao analisarmos por genótipo, um único cruzamento (no ano de 2008), originado dos parentais (BRS Borema/PFC 2005129) rendeu o maior número de plantas verdes por espiga, totalizando 11,27 plantas. Tais informações são especialmente importantes na escolha de genótipos com alto potencial de regeneração in vitro, para que estes sejam preferencialmente incluídos nos blocos de cruzamento visando às futuras hibridizações.bitstream/item/222382/1/BolPesqDes-96-online2021.pd

Reação de Cultivares e Linhagens de Cevada ao Barley yellow dwarf virus-PAV, em 2018.

O nanismo-amarelo em cereais de inverno no Brasil é causado, predominantemente, por Barley yellow dwarf virus ? BYDV-PAV (Luteovirus, Luteoviridae) (Mar et al., 2013; Parizoto et al., 2013) e transmitido, principalmente, pelos afídeos Rhopalosiphum padi (Linnaeus, 1758), com ocorrências no outono e na primavera; e Sitobion avenae (Fabricius, 1775), com ocorrência na primavera (Parizoto et al., 2013; Rebonatto et al., 2015). O potencial de dano deste complexo afídeo-vírus à produção de cevada (Hordeum vulgare L.) resulta da interação entre o nível de tolerância/resistência das cultivares (Lau et al., 2017) e a incidência da doença, determinada pela dinâmica dos afídeos meteorológicas (Rebonatto et al., 2015).bitstream/item/221037/1/ComTecOnline-376-2020.pd