Unusual past dry and wet rainy seasons over Southern Africa and South America from a climate perspective

Southern Africa and Southern South America have experienced recent extremes in dry and wet rainy seasons which have caused severe socio-economic damages. Selected past extreme events are here studied, to estimate how human activity has changed the risk of the occurrence of such events, by applying an event attribution approach (Stott et al., 2004)comprising global climate models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). Our assessment shows that models' representation of mean precipitation variability over Southern South America is not adequate to make a robust attribution statement about seasonal rainfall extremes in this region. Over Southern Africa, we show that unusually dry austral summers as occurred during 2002/2003 have become more likely, whereas unusually wet austral summers like that of 1999/2000 have become less likely due to anthropogenic climate change. There is some tentative evidence that the risk of extreme high 5-day precipitation totals (as observed in 1999/2000) have increased in the region. These results are consistent with CMIP5 models projecting a general drying trend over SAF during December–January–February (DJF) but also an increase in atmospheric moisture availability to feed heavy rainfall events when they do occur. Bootstrapping the confidence intervals of the fraction of attributable risk has demonstrated estimates of attributable risk are very uncertain, if the events are very rare. The study highlights some of the challenges in making an event attribution study for precipitation using seasonal precipitation and extreme 5-day precipitation totals and considering natural drivers such as ENSO in coupled ocean–atmosphere models

Proven intra and interobserver reliability in the echographic assessments of body fat changes related to HIV associated Adipose Redistribution Syndrome (HARS)

OBJECTIVE: To prove intra- and inter-observer's reliability of ultrasound (US) in the assessment of lipoatrophic findings related to the HIV associated Adipose Redistribution Syndrome (HARS). PATIENTS AND METHODS: In two separated sessions, 2 consecutive measurements of subcutaneous fat thickness (SFT) were performed by each observer at the deepest point of Bichat pad, the dorsal face of arm and the mid thigh for the assessment of facial, brachial and crural lipoatrophy, respectively. We enrolled 20 HIV patients, rotating an experienced and untrained sonologist. The assessments were performed avoiding any stand off pads in the skin and excluding artefacts due to the too abundant quantity of gel to obtaining, with minimal transducer pressure, the best resolution of the reference points. RESULTS: Means of facial, brachial and crural SFT showed no significant differences between the workers. Coefficients of variability (SD/mean x100) were similar for facial (ranges: 4.7-5.2% vs 4.9-5.6%, respectively), brachial (ranges: 5.8-8.4% vs 9.7-11.2%) and crural SFTs (ranges: 5.9-6% vs 6.2-8.7%). There was greater consistency in the measurements performed by the experienced vs the untrained worker. Inter-observer agreement, assessed through kappa statistic (k) analysis, confirmed increased measurement's agreement in the facial (k ranged from 0.40 to 0.60), brachial (k: 0.23-0.63) and crural SFT assessments (k: 0.58-0.70) from the 1(st) to 2(nd) session. CONCLUSIONS: US shows low intra observer variability and good inter observer reliability in the assessment of body fat changes related to the HARS. The different degree of consistency by the workers and the improvement of interobserver agreement, suggest to stating a well defined period of training to obtain better US reliabilit

Avoiding unnecessary ventricular pacing is associated with reduced incidence of heart failure hospitalizations and persistent atrial fibrillation in pacemaker patients

Aims In bradycardia patients treated with dual-chamber pacing, we aimed to evaluate whether pacing with atrioventricular (AV) delay management [AV hysteresis (AVH)], compared with standard pacing with fixed AV delays, reduces unnecessary ventricular pacing percentage (VPP) and is associated with better clinical outcomes. Main study endpoints were the incidence of heart failure hospitalizations (HFH), persistent atrial fibrillation (AF), and cardiac death. Methods Data from two identical prospective observational studies, BRADYCARE I in the USA and BRADYCARE II in Europe, Africa, and results and Asia, were pooled. Overall, 2592 patients (75 ± 10 years, 45.1% female, 50% with AVH) had complete clinical and device data at 1-year follow-up and were analysed. Primary pacing indication was sinus node disease (SND) in 1177 (45.4%), AV block (AVB) in 974 (37.6%), and other indications in 441 (17.0%) patients. Pacing with AVH, compared with standard pacing, was associated with a lower 1-year incidence of HFH [1.3% vs. 3.1%, relative risk reduction (RRR) 57.5%, P = 0.002] and of persistent AF (5.3% vs. 7.7%, RRR = 31.1%, P = 0.028). Cardiac mortality was not different between groups (1.0% vs. 1.4%, RRR = 27.8%, P = 0.366). Pacing with AVH, compared with standard pacing, was associated with a lower (P < 0.001) median VPP in all patients (7% vs. 75%), in SND (3% vs. 44%), in AVB (25% vs. 98%), and in patients with other pacing indications (3% vs. 47%).Conclusion Cardiac pacing with AV delay management via AVH is associated with reduced 1-year incidence of HFH and persistent AF, most likely due to a reduction in VPP compared to standard pacing

ANMCO/SIC/SICI-GISE/SICCH Executive Summary of Consensus Document on Risk Stratification in elderly patients with aortic stenosis before surgery or transcatheter aortic valve replacement

Aortic stenosis is one of the most frequent valvular diseases in developed countries, and its impact on public health resources and assistance is increasing. A substantial proportion of elderly people with severe aortic stenosis is not eligible to surgery because of the advanced age, frailty, and multiple co-morbidities. Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) enables the treatment of very elderly patients at high or prohibitive surgical risk considered ineligible for surgery and with an acceptable life expectancy. However, a significant percentage of patients die or show no improvement in quality of life (QOL) in the follow-up. In the decision-making process, it is important to determine: (i) whether and how much frailty of the patient influences the risk of procedures; (ii) how the QOL and the individual patient's survival are influenced by aortic valve disease or from other associated conditions; and (iii) whether a geriatric specialist intervention to evaluate and correct frailty or other diseases with their potential or already manifest disabilities can improve the outcome of surgery or TAVI. Consequently, in addition to risk stratification with conventional tools, a number of factors including multi-morbidity, disability, frailty, and cognitive function should be considered, in order to assess the expected benefit of both surgery and TAVI. The pre-operative optimization through a multidisciplinary approach with a Heart Team can counteract the multiple damage (cardiac, neurological, muscular, respiratory, and kidney) that can potentially aggravate the reduced physiological reserves characteristic of frailty. The systematic application in clinical practice of multidimensional assessment instruments of frailty and cognitive function in the screening and the adoption of specific care pathways should facilitate this task

Trend of salt intake measured by 24-h urine collection in the Italian adult population between the 2008 and 2018 CUORE project surveys

Background and aims: The WHO Global Action Plan for the Prevention of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) recommends a 30% relative reduction in mean population salt/sodium intake. The study assessed the trend in the habitual salt intake of the Italian adult population from 2008 to 2012 to 2018–2019 based on 24-h urinary sodium excretion, in the framework of the CUORE Project/MINISAL-GIRCSI/MENO SALE PIU’ SALUTE national surveys. Methods and results: Data were from cross-sectional surveys of randomly selected age and sex–stratified samples of resident persons aged 35–74 years in 10 (out of 20) Italian Regions distributed in North, Centre and South of the Country. Urinary sodium and creatinine measurements were carried out in a central laboratory. The analyses included 942 men and 916 women examined in 2008–2012, and 967 men and 1010 women examined in 2018–2019. The age-standardized mean daily population salt (sodium chloride) intake was 10.8 g (95% CI 10.5–11.1) in men and 8.3 g (8.1–8.5) in women in 2008–2012 and respectively 9.5 g (9.3–9.8) and 7.2 g (7.0–7.4) in 2018–2019. A statistically significant (p<0.0001) salt intake reduction was thus observed over 10 years for both genders, and all age, body mass index (BMI) and educational classes. Conclusions: The average daily salt intake of the Italian general adult population remains higher than the WHO recommended level, but a significant reduction of 12% in men and 13% in women has occurred in the past ten years. These results encourage the initiatives undertaken by the Italian Ministry of Health aimed at the reduction of salt intake at the population level

Circulating cardiovascular biomarkers in recurrent atrial fibrillation: data from the GISSI-atrial fibrillation trial.

Objective. We evaluated the prognostic role of circulating cardiovascular biomarkers in patients with a history of recent atrial fibrillation (AF).Background. Predicting long-term maintenance of sinus rhythm in patients with AF is difficult.Methods. Plasma concentrations of three specific cardiac markers [high-sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT), N-terminal probrain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and mid-regional proatrial natriuretic peptide (MR-proANP)] and three stable fragments of vasoactive peptides [mid-regional proadrenomedullin (MR-proADM), copeptin (CT-proAVP) and CT-proendothelin-1 (CT-proET-1)] were measured at baseline and after 6 and 12 months in 382 patients enrolled in the GISSI-AF study, a prospective randomized trial to determine the effect of valsartan to reduce the recurrence of AF. The association between these markers, clinical characteristics and recurrence of AF was tested by univariate and multivariate Cox models.Results. Mean patient age was 68 \ub1 9 years (37.2% females). A total of 84.8% of patients had a history of hypertension. In total, 59.7% qualified for history of AF because of successful cardioversion, 11.8% because of two or more episodes of AF in the 6 months preceding randomization and 28.5% because of both. Patients in AF at 6 or 12 months (203 (53.1%) with first recurrence) had significantly higher concentrations of most biomarkers. Despite low baseline levels, higher concentrations of hsTnT {adjusted hazard ratio (HR) [95% confidence intervals (CIs) for 1 SD increment] (1.15 [1.04-1.28], P = 0.007), MR-proANP (1.15 [1.01-1.30], P = 0.04), NT-proBNP (1.24 [1.11-1.39], P = 0.0001) and CT-proET-1 (1.16 [1.01-1.33], P = 0.03) independently predicted higher risk of a first recurrence of AF. Changes over time of MR-proANP tended to predict subsequent recurrence (adjusted HR [95%CI]) (1.53 [0.98-2.37], P = 0.06).Conclusion. Circulating markers of cardiomyocyte injury/strain and endothelin are related to recurrence of AF in patients in sinus rhythm with a history of recent AF