An Empirical Study of Finding Approximate Equilibria in Bimatrix Games

While there have been a number of studies about the efficacy of methods to find exact Nash equilibria in bimatrix games, there has been little empirical work on finding approximate Nash equilibria. Here we provide such a study that compares a number of approximation methods and exact methods. In particular, we explore the trade-off between the quality of approximate equilibrium and the required running time to find one. We found that the existing library GAMUT, which has been the de facto standard that has been used to test exact methods, is insufficient as a test bed for approximation methods since many of its games have pure equilibria or other easy-to-find good approximate equilibria. We extend the breadth and depth of our study by including new interesting families of bimatrix games, and studying bimatrix games upto size $2000 \times 2000$. Finally, we provide new close-to-worst-case examples for the best-performing algorithms for finding approximate Nash equilibria

The Longitudinal Properties of a Solar Energetic Particle Event Investigated Using Modern Solar Imaging

We use combined high-cadence, high-resolution, and multi-point imaging by the Solar-Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) and the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory to investigate the hour-long eruption of a fast and wide coronal mass ejection (CME) on 2011 March 21 when the twin STEREO spacecraft were located beyond the solar limbs. We analyze the relation between the eruption of the CME, the evolution of an Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) wave, and the onset of a solar energetic particle (SEP) event measured in situ by the STEREO and near-Earth orbiting spacecraft. Combined ultraviolet and white-light images of the lower corona reveal that in an initial CME lateral "expansion phase," the EUV disturbance tracks the laterally expanding flanks of the CME, both moving parallel to the solar surface with speeds of ~450 km s^(–1). When the lateral expansion of the ejecta ceases, the EUV disturbance carries on propagating parallel to the solar surface but devolves rapidly into a less coherent structure. Multi-point tracking of the CME leading edge and the effects of the launched compression waves (e.g., pushed streamers) give anti-sunward speeds that initially exceed 900 km s^(–1) at all measured position angles. We combine our analysis of ultraviolet and white-light images with a comprehensive study of the velocity dispersion of energetic particles measured in situ by particle detectors located at STEREO-A (STA) and first Lagrange point (L1), to demonstrate that the delayed solar particle release times at STA and L1 are consistent with the time required (30-40 minutes) for the CME to perturb the corona over a wide range of longitudes. This study finds an association between the longitudinal extent of the perturbed corona (in EUV and white light) and the longitudinal extent of the SEP event in the heliosphere

Traumatic brain injury leads to alterations in contusional cortical miRNAs involved in dementia

There is compelling evidence that head injury is a significant environmental risk factor for Alzheimer's disease (AD) and that a history of traumatic brain injury (TBI) accelerates the onset of AD. Amyloid-β plaques and tau aggregates have been observed in the post-mortem brains of TBI patients; however, the mechanisms leading to AD neuropathology in TBI are still unknown. In this study, we hypothesized that focal TBI induces changes in miRNA expression in and around affected areas, resulting in the altered expression of genes involved in neurodegeneration and AD pathology. For this purpose, we performed a miRNA array in extracts from rats subjected to experimental TBI, using the controlled cortical impact (CCI) model. In and around the contusion, we observed alterations of miRNAs associated with dementia/AD, compared to the contralateral side. Specifically, the expression of miR-9 was significantly upregulated, while miR-29b, miR-34a, miR-106b, miR-181a and miR-107 were downregulated. Via qPCR, we confirmed these results in an additional group of injured rats when compared to naïve animals. Interestingly, the changes in those miRNAs were concomitant with alterations in the gene expression of mRNAs involved in amyloid generation and tau pathology, such as β-APP cleaving enzyme (BACE1) and Glycogen synthase-3-β (GSK3β). In addition increased levels of neuroinflammatory markers (TNF-α), glial activation, neuronal loss, and tau phosphorylation were observed in pericontusional areas. Therefore, our results suggest that the secondary injury cascade in TBI affects miRNAs regulating the expression of genes involved in AD dementia

Speeds and arrival times of solar transients approximated by self-similar expanding circular fronts

The NASA STEREO mission opened up the possibility to forecast the arrival times, speeds and directions of solar transients from outside the Sun-Earth line. In particular, we are interested in predicting potentially geo-effective Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) from observations of density structures at large observation angles from the Sun (with the STEREO Heliospheric Imager instrument). We contribute to this endeavor by deriving analytical formulas concerning a geometric correction for the ICME speed and arrival time for the technique introduced by Davies et al. (2012, ApJ, in press) called Self-Similar Expansion Fitting (SSEF). This model assumes that a circle propagates outward, along a plane specified by a position angle (e.g. the ecliptic), with constant angular half width (lambda). This is an extension to earlier, more simple models: Fixed-Phi-Fitting (lambda = 0 degree) and Harmonic Mean Fitting (lambda = 90 degree). This approach has the advantage that it is possible to assess clearly, in contrast to previous models, if a particular location in the heliosphere, such as a planet or spacecraft, might be expected to be hit by the ICME front. Our correction formulas are especially significant for glancing hits, where small differences in the direction greatly influence the expected speeds (up to 100-200 km/s) and arrival times (up to two days later than the apex). For very wide ICMEs (2 lambda > 120 degree), the geometric correction becomes very similar to the one derived by M\"ostl et al. (2011, ApJ, 741, id. 34) for the Harmonic Mean model. These analytic expressions can also be used for empirical or analytical models to predict the 1 AU arrival time of an ICME by correcting for effects of hits by the flank rather than the apex, if the width and direction of the ICME in a plane are known and a circular geometry of the ICME front is assumed.Comment: 15 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in "Solar Physics

Near-earth cosmic ray decreases associated with remote coronal mass ejections

Galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux is modulated by both particle drift patterns and solar wind structures on a range of timescales. Over solar cycles, GCR flux varies as a function of the total open solar magnetic flux and the latitudinal extent of the heliospheric current sheet. Over hours, drops of a few percent in near-Earth GCR flux (Forbush decreases, FDs) are well known to be associated with the near-Earth passage of solar wind structures resulting from corotating interaction regions (CIRs) and transient coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We report on four FDs seen at ground-based neutron monitors which cannot be immediately associated with significant structures in the local solar wind. Similarly, there are significant near-Earth structures which do not produce any corresponding GCR variation. Three of the FDs are during the STEREO era, enabling in situ and remote observations from three well-separated heliospheric locations. Extremely large CMEs passed the STEREO-A spacecraft, which was behind the West limb of the Sun, approximately 2–3 days before each near- Earth FD. Solar wind simulations suggest that the CMEs combined with pre-existing CIRs, enhancing the pre-existing barriers to GCR propagation. Thus these observations provide strong evidence for the modulation of GCR flux by remote solar wind structures

The radial width of a coronal mass ejection between 0.1 and 0.4 AU estimated from the heliospheric imager on STEREO

On 15-17 February 2008, a CME with an approximately circular cross section was tracked through successive images obtained by the Heliospheric Imager (HI) instrument onboard the STEREO-A spacecraft. Reasoning that an idealised flux rope is cylindrical in shape with a circular cross-section, best fit circles are used to determine the radial width of the CME. As part of the process the radial velocity and longitude of propagation are determined by fits to elongation-time maps as 252±5 km/s and 70±5° respectively. With the longitude known, the radial size is calculated from the images, taking projection effects into account. The radial width of the CME, S (AU), obeys a power law with heliocentric distance, R, as the CME travels between 0.1 and 0.4 AU, such that S=0.26 R0.6±0.1. The exponent value obtained is compared to published studies based on statistical surveys of in situ spacecraft observations of ICMEs between 0.3 and 1.0 AU, and general agreement is found. This paper demonstrates the new opportunities provided by HI to track the radial width of CMEs through the previously unobservable zone between the LASCO field of view and Helios in situ measurements

Pre-existing invasive fungal infection is not a contraindication for allogeneic HSCT for patients with hematologic malignancies: a CIBMTR study.

Patients with prior invasive fungal infection (IFI) increasingly proceed to allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HSCT). However, little is known about the impact of prior IFI on survival. Patients with pre-transplant IFI (cases; n=825) were compared with controls (n=10247). A subset analysis assessed outcomes in leukemia patients pre- and post 2001. Cases were older with lower performance status (KPS), more advanced disease, higher likelihood of AML and having received cord blood, reduced intensity conditioning, mold-active fungal prophylaxis and more recently transplanted. Aspergillus spp. and Candida spp. were the most commonly identified pathogens. 68% of patients had primarily pulmonary involvement. Univariate and multivariable analysis demonstrated inferior PFS and overall survival (OS) for cases. At 2 years, cases had higher mortality and shorter PFS with significant increases in non-relapse mortality (NRM) but no difference in relapse. One year probability of post-HSCT IFI was 24% (cases) and 17% (control, P<0.001). The predominant cause of death was underlying malignancy; infectious death was higher in cases (13% vs 9%). In the subset analysis, patients transplanted before 2001 had increased NRM with inferior OS and PFS compared with later cases. Pre-transplant IFI is associated with lower PFS and OS after allogeneic HSCT but significant survivorship was observed. Consequently, pre-transplant IFI should not be a contraindication to allogeneic HSCT in otherwise suitable candidates. Documented pre-transplant IFI is associated with lower PFS and OS after allogeneic HSCT. However, mortality post transplant is more influenced by advanced disease status than previous IFI. Pre-transplant IFI does not appear to be a contraindication to allogeneic HSCT

Using an Ellipsoid Model to Track and Predict the Evolution and Propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections

We present a method for tracking and predicting the propagation and evolution of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) using the imagers on the STEREO and SOHO satellites. By empirically modeling the material between the inner core and leading edge of a CME as an expanding, outward propagating ellipsoid, we track its evolution in three-dimensional space. Though more complex empirical CME models have been developed, we examine the accuracy of this relatively simple geometric model, which incorporates relatively few physical assumptions, including i) a constant propagation angle and ii) an azimuthally symmetric structure. Testing our ellipsoid model developed herein on three separate CMEs, we find that it is an effective tool for predicting the arrival of density enhancements and the duration of each event near 1 AU. For each CME studied, the trends in the trajectory, as well as the radial and transverse expansion are studied from 0 to ~.3 AU to create predictions at 1 AU with an average accuracy of 2.9 hours.Comment: 18 pages, 11 figure

Recommendations for Next‐Generation Ground Magnetic Perturbation Validation

Data‐model validation of ground magnetic perturbation forecasts, specifically of the time rate of change of surface magnetic field, dB/dt, is a critical task for model development and for mitigation of geomagnetically induced current effects. While a current, community‐accepted standard for dB/dt validation exists (Pulkkinen et al., 2013), it has several limitations that prevent more complete understanding of model capability. This work presents recommendations from the International Forum for Space Weather Capabilities Assessment Ground Magnetic Perturbation Working Team for creating a next‐generation validation suite. Four recommendations are made to address the existing suite: greatly expand the number of ground observatories used, expand the number of events included in the suite from six to eight, generate metrics as a function of magnetic local time, and generate metrics as a function of activity type. For each of these, implementation details are explored. Limitations and future considerations are also discussed.Plain Language SummarySpace weather forecast models of magnetic field perturbations are important for protecting the power grid and other vulnerable infrastructure. These models must be validated by comparing their predictions to observations. This paper makes recommendations for how future models should be validated in order to best test their capabilities.Key PointsWe present a new validation suite for models of ground magnetic perturbations, dB/dt, of interest for geomagnetically induced currentsThe existing standard remains useful but provides limited information, so an expanded set of metrics is defined hereThis work is a result of the International Forum for Space Weather Capabilities Assessment and represents a new community consensusPeer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/147786/1/swe20777_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/147786/2/swe20777.pd