How robust are recommended waiting times to pacing after cardiac surgery that are derived from observational data?

AIMS: For bradycardic patients after cardiac surgery, it is unknown how long to wait before implanting a permanent pacemaker (PPM). Current recommendations vary and are based on observational studies. This study aims to examine why this variation may exist. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted first a study of patients in our institution and second a systematic review of studies examining conduction disturbance and pacing after cardiac surgery. Of 5849 operations over a 6-year period, 103 (1.8%) patients required PPM implantation. Only pacing dependence at implant and time from surgery to implant were associated with 30-day pacing dependence. The only predictor of regression of pacing dependence was time from surgery to implant. We then applied the conventional procedure of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, seeking an optimal time point for decision-making. This suggested the optimal waiting time was 12.5 days for predicting pacing dependence at 30 days for all patients (area under the ROC curve (AUC) 0.620, P = 0.031) and for predicting regression of pacing dependence in patients who were pacing-dependent at implant (AUC 0.769, P < 0.001). However, our systematic review showed that recommended optimal decision-making time points were strongly correlated with the average implant time point of those individual studies (R = 0.96, P < 0.001). We further conducted modelling which revealed that in any such study, the ROC method is strongly biased to indicate a value near to the median time to implant as optimal. CONCLUSION: When commonly used automated statistical methods are applied to observational data with the aim of defining the optimal time to pacing after cardiac surgery, the suggested answer is likely to be similar to the average time to pacing in that cohort

Novel insights into the cardio-protective effects of FGF21 in lean and obese rat hearts

Aims: Fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) is a hepatic metabolic regulator with pleotropic actions. Its plasma concentrations are increased in obesity and diabetes; states associated with an increased incidence of cardiovascular disease. We therefore investigated the direct effect of FGF21 on cardio-protection in obese and lean hearts in response to ischemia. Methods and Results: FGF21, FGF21-receptor 1 (FGFR1) and beta-Klotho (βKlotho) were expressed in rodent, human hearts and primary rat cardiomyocytes. Cardiac FGF21 was expressed and secreted (real time RT-PCR/western blot and ELISA) in an autocrine-paracrine manner, in response to obesity and hypoxia, involving FGFR1-βKlotho components. Cardiac-FGF21 expression and secretion were increased in response to global ischemia. In contrast βKlotho was reduced in obese hearts. In isolated adult rat cardiomyocytes, FGF21 activated PI3K/Akt (phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase/Akt), ERK1/2(extracellular signal-regulated kinase) and AMPK (AMP-activated protein kinase) pathways. In Langendorff perfused rat [adult male wild-type wistar] hearts, FGF21 administration induced significant cardio-protection and restoration of function following global ischemia. Inhibition of PI3K/Akt, AMPK, ERK1/2 and ROR-α (retinoic-acid receptor alpha) pathway led to significant decrease of FGF21 induced cardio-protection and restoration of cardiac function in response to global ischemia. More importantly, this cardio-protective response induced by FGF21 was reduced in obesity, although the cardiac expression profiles and circulating FGF21 levels were increased. Conclusion: In an ex vivo Langendorff system, we show that FGF21 induced cardiac protection and restoration of cardiac function involving autocrine-paracrine pathways, with reduced effect in obesity. Collectively, our findings provide novel insights into FGF21-induced cardiac effects in obesity and ischemia

Surgical aortic valve replacement in the era of transcatheter aortic valve implantation: a review of the UK national database

Objectives To date the reported outcomes of surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) are mainly in the settings of trials comparing it with evolving transcatheter aortic valve implantation. We set out to examine characteristics and outcomes in people who underwent SAVR reflecting a national cohort and therefore ‘real-world’ practice. Design Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data of consecutive people who underwent SAVR with or without coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery between April 2013 and March 2018 in the UK. This included elective, urgent and emergency operations. Participants’ demographics, preoperative risk factors, operative data, in-hospital mortality, postoperative complications and effect of the addition of CABG to SAVR were analysed. Setting 27 (90%) tertiary cardiac surgical centres in the UK submitted their data for analysis. Participants 31 277 people with AVR were identified. 19 670 (62.9%) had only SAVR and 11 607 (37.1%) had AVR+CABG. Results In-hospital mortality for isolated SAVR was 1.9% (95% CI 1.6% to 2.1%) and was 2.4% for AVR+CABG. Mortality by age category for SAVR only were: 75 years=2.2%. For SAVR+CABG these were; 2.2%, 1.8% and 3.1%. For different categories of EuroSCORE, mortality for SAVR in low risk people was 1.3%, in intermediate risk 1% and for high risk 3.9%. 74.3% of the operations were elective, 24% urgent and 1.7% emergency/salvage. The incidences of resternotomy for bleeding and stroke were 3.9% and 1.1%, respectively. Multivariable analyses provided no evidence that concomitant CABG influenced outcome. However, urgency of the operation, poor ventricular function, higher EuroSCORE and longer cross clamp and cardiopulmonary bypass times adversely affected outcomes. Conclusions Surgical SAVR±CABG has low mortality risk and a low level of complications in the UK in people of all ages and risk factors. These results should inform consideration of treatment options in people with aortic valve disease

Surgical aortic valve replacement in the era of transcatheter aortic valve implantation: a review of the UK national database.

OBJECTIVES: To date the reported outcomes of surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) are mainly in the settings of trials comparing it with evolving transcatheter aortic valve implantation. We set out to examine characteristics and outcomes in people who underwent SAVR reflecting a national cohort and therefore 'real-world' practice. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data of consecutive people who underwent SAVR with or without coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery between April 2013 and March 2018 in the UK. This included elective, urgent and emergency operations. Participants' demographics, preoperative risk factors, operative data, in-hospital mortality, postoperative complications and effect of the addition of CABG to SAVR were analysed. SETTING: 27 (90%) tertiary cardiac surgical centres in the UK submitted their data for analysis. PARTICIPANTS: 31 277 people with AVR were identified. 19 670 (62.9%) had only SAVR and 11 607 (37.1%) had AVR+CABG. RESULTS: In-hospital mortality for isolated SAVR was 1.9% (95% CI 1.6% to 2.1%) and was 2.4% for AVR+CABG. Mortality by age category for SAVR only were: 75 years=2.2%. For SAVR+CABG these were; 2.2%, 1.8% and 3.1%. For different categories of EuroSCORE, mortality for SAVR in low risk people was 1.3%, in intermediate risk 1% and for high risk 3.9%. 74.3% of the operations were elective, 24% urgent and 1.7% emergency/salvage. The incidences of resternotomy for bleeding and stroke were 3.9% and 1.1%, respectively. Multivariable analyses provided no evidence that concomitant CABG influenced outcome. However, urgency of the operation, poor ventricular function, higher EuroSCORE and longer cross clamp and cardiopulmonary bypass times adversely affected outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Surgical SAVR±CABG has low mortality risk and a low level of complications in the UK in people of all ages and risk factors. These results should inform consideration of treatment options in people with aortic valve disease

Assessment of left ventricular tissue mitochondrial bioenergetics in patients with stable coronary artery disease

Recurrent myocardial ischemia can lead to left ventricular (LV) dysfunction in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). In this observational cohort study, we assessed for chronic metabolomic and transcriptomic adaptations within LV myocardium of patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting. During surgery, paired transmural LV biopsies were acquired on the beating heart from regions with and without evidence of inducible ischemia on preoperative stress perfusion cardiovascular magnetic resonance. From 33 patients, 63 biopsies were acquired, compared to analysis of LV samples from 11 donor hearts. The global myocardial adenosine triphosphate (ATP):adenosine diphosphate (ADP) ratio was reduced in patients with CAD as compared to donor LV tissue, with increased expression of oxidative phosphorylation (OXPHOS) genes encoding the electron transport chain complexes across multiple cell types. Paired analyses of biopsies obtained from LV segments with or without inducible ischemia revealed no significant difference in the ATP:ADP ratio, broader metabolic profile or expression of ventricular cardiomyocyte genes implicated in OXPHOS. Differential metabolite analysis suggested dysregulation of several intermediates in patients with reduced LV ejection fraction, including succinate. Overall, our results suggest that viable myocardium in patients with stable CAD has global alterations in bioenergetic and transcriptional profile without large regional differences between areas with or without inducible ischemia

Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability

Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Individual Patient Data to Assess the Sensitivity of Cervical Cytology for Diagnosis of Cervical Cancer in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

Purpose: To assess the sensitivity of cervical cytology to cancer by pooling individual patient cytology results from cancers diagnosed in studies that assessed cervical screening in low- and middle-income countries. Methods: Two authors reviewed studies identified through PubMed and Embase databases. We included studies that reported cervical cytology in which at least one woman was diagnosed with cervical cancer and in which abnormal cytology results were investigated at colposcopy and through a histologic sample (if appropriate). When cytology results were not reported in the manuscript, authors were contacted. Stratified analyses and meta-regression were performed to assess sources of heterogeneity between studies. Results: We included 717 cancers from 23 studies. The pooled sensitivity of cytology to cancer at a cutoff of a high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL) or worse was 79.4% (95% CI, 67.7% to 86.0%). Results from stratified analyses did not differ significantly, except among studies that recruited symptomatic women or women referred because of abnormal cytology, when the sensitivity of cytology was much higher (95.9%; 95% CI, 86.5% to 99.9%). The cutoff of an HSIL or worse detected 85% of the cancers that would have been detected at a cutoff of atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance or worse (relative sensitivity, 85.2%; 95% CI, 80.7% to 89.7%). Conclusion: Cytology at a high cutoff could be an excellent tool for targeted screening of populations at high risk of cervical cancer with a view to diagnose cancer at an earlier stage.Supported by Cancer Research UK grant No. C8162/A1687

Assigning myocardial fibre orientation to a computational biventricular human heart model

Finite element based surgical simulation has the potential to be used as a surgical planning tool for the repairing of the ventricular aneurysm, a substantial cause for heart failure. However, in order to be effective, this simulation requires the geometrical accuracy of the ventricle. In addition, fibre orientation is indispensable to define heart muscle’s material anisotropy but creation of a smooth fibre map for biomechanical analysis is still a challenge. In this paper, an innovative procedure is introduced to create 3D geometry in order to minimise the error occurs in the volume assessment of ventricle due to the large slice thickness of cardiac magnetic resonance imaging. Also, the procedure is used to investigate the effect of increasing slice thickness of the image data on the accuracy of the created 3D geometry. Furthermore, a novel Laplace-Dirichlet-Region growing-Finite element based algorithm is developed to create a fibre map based on the histological data. This algorithm is proven to be capable of generating smooth fibre orientations quickly, efficiently and robustly on the created 3D geometry. The fibre map can be subsequently fed into finite element analysis in order to define the material anisotropy for simulating surgical treatments