Managerial Overconfidence and Corporate Policies

Miscalibration is a standard measure of overconfidence in both psychology and economics. Although it is often used in lab experiments, there is scarcity of evidence about its effects in practice. We test whether top corporate executives are miscalibrated, and whether their miscalibration impacts investment behavior. Over six years, we collect a unique panel of nearly 7,000 observations of probability distributions provided by top financial executives regarding the stock market. Financial executives are miscalibrated: realized market returns are within the executives' 80% confidence intervals only 38% of the time. We show that companies with overconfident CFOs use lower discount rates to value cash flows, and that they invest more, use more debt, are less likely to pay dividends, are more likely to repurchase shares, and they use proportionally more long-term, as opposed to short-term, debt. The pervasive effect of this miscalibration suggests that the effect of overconfidence should be explicitly modeled when analyzing corporate decision-making.

Take the best or look at the rest? Factors influencing "one-reason" decision making.

Aspects of an experimental environment were manipulated in 3 experiments to examine the parameters under which the "take-the-best" (TTB) heuristic (e.g., G. Gigerenzer & D. G. Goldstein, 1996) operates. Results indicated TTB use to be more prevalent when the cost of information was high, when validities of the cues were known, and when a deterministic environment was used. However, large individual variability in strategy use was observed as well as a significant proportion of behavior inconsistent with TTB, expecially its stopping rule. The results demarcate some of the heuristic's boundary conditions and also question the validity of TTB as a psychologically plausible and pervasive model of behavior

Byzantine modification detection in multicast networks using randomized network coding

Distributed randomized network coding, a robust approach to multicasting in distributed network settings, can be extended to provide Byzantine modification detection without the use of cryptographic functions is presented in this paper

Byzantine Modification Detection in Multicast Networks With Random Network Coding

An information-theoretic approach for detecting Byzantine or adversarial modifications in networks employing random linear network coding is described. Each exogenous source packet is augmented with a flexible number of hash symbols that are obtained as a polynomial function of the data symbols. This approach depends only on the adversary not knowing the random coding coefficients of all other packets received by the sink nodes when designing its adversarial packets. We show how the detection probability varies with the overhead (ratio of hash to data symbols), coding field size, and the amount of information unknown to the adversary about the random code

Status of the KTeV Experiment at Fermilab

The KTeV experiment is a fixed target experiment at Fermilab. Its primary goal is the search for direct CP violation in the decay of neutral kaons. Its current status and some preliminary results will be discussed.Comment: 5 pages Latex, 4 figures; to be published in the proceedings of the XVI International Workshop on Weak Interactions and Neutrinos, WIN '97, Capri, Italy, June 22-28, 199

Magnetization reversal and spin dynamics exchange in biased F/AF bilayers probed with complex permeability spectra

The spin dynamics of the ferromagnetic pinned layer of ferro-antiferromagnetic coupled NiFe/MnNi bilayers is investigated in a broad frequency range (30 MHz-6 GHz). A phenomenological model based on the Landau-Lifshitz equation for the complex permeability of the F/AF bilayer is proposed. The experimental results are compared to theoretical predictions. We show that the resonance frequencies, measured during the magnetization, are likewise hysteretic.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Deploying a microstructure profiler in Corpus Christi Bay

Center for Water and the Environmen

Personality processes and intra-group dynamics in sports teams

Can a better understanding of group dynamics raise individual and team athletic performance or improve the outcomes of exercise interventions? Much human behaviour in sport and exercise settings is embedded within groups where individuals’ cognitions, emotions, and behaviours influence and are influenced by other group members. Group Dynamics in Exercise and Sports Psychology: Contemporary Themes explores the unique psychological dynamics that emerge in sport and exercise groups. It provides a clear and thorough guide to contemporary theory and research. Recommendations are also presented to inform applied psychology ‘best practice’. Drawing together the expertise of international specialists from sports and exercise psychology, the text covers core themes as well as emerging issues in group dynamics. The text is organised into four sections: Part 1: The Self in Groups Part 2: Leadership in Groups Part 3: Group Environment Part 4: Motivation in Groups Group Dynamics in Exercise and Sports Psychology: Contemporary Themes will be of interest to psychology, kinesiology, sport and exercise science students and researchers, as well as to consultants and coaches