Time-dependent Stochastic Modeling of Solar Active Region Energy

A time-dependent model for the energy of a flaring solar active region is presented based on a stochastic jump-transition model (Wheatland and Glukhov 1998; Wheatland 2008; Wheatland 2009). The magnetic free energy of the model active region varies in time due to a prescribed (deterministic) rate of energy input and prescribed (random) flare jumps downwards in energy. The model has been shown to reproduce observed flare statistics, for specific time-independent choices for the energy input and flare transition rates. However, many solar active regions exhibit time variation in flare productivity, as exemplified by NOAA active region AR 11029 (Wheatland 2010). In this case a time-dependent model is needed. Time variation is incorporated for two cases: 1. a step change in the rates of flare jumps; and 2. a step change in the rate of energy supply to the system. Analytic arguments are presented describing the qualitative behavior of the system in the two cases. In each case the system adjusts by shifting to a new stationary state over a relaxation time which is estimated analytically. The new model retains flare-like event statistics. In each case the frequency-energy distribution is a power law for flare energies less than a time-dependent rollover set by the largest energy the system is likely to attain at a given time. For Case 1, the model exhibits a double exponential waiting-time distribution, corresponding to flaring at a constant mean rate during two intervals (before and after the step change), if the average energy of the system is large. For Case 2 the waiting-time distribution is a simple exponential, again provided the average energy of the system is large. Monte Carlo simulations of Case~1 are presented which confirm the analytic estimates. The simulation results provide a qualitative model for observed flare statistics in active region AR 11029.Comment: 25 pages, 9 figure

Helping rural women in Pakistan to prevent postpartum hemorrhage: A quasi experimental study

BACKGROUND: According to the Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey from 2006–2007, the maternal mortality ratio in rural areas is 319 per 100,000 live births. Postpartum hemorrhage is the leading cause of maternal deaths in Pakistan. The objectives of the study were to document the feasibility of distribution of misoprostol tablets by community-based providers mainly traditional birth attendants and acceptability and use of misoprostol by women who gave birth at home. METHODS: A quasi-experimental design, comprising intervention and comparison areas, was used to document the acceptability of providing misoprostol tablets to pregnant women to prevent postpartum hemorrhage in the rural community setting in Pakistan. Data were collected using structured questionnaires administered to women before and after delivery at home and their birth attendants. RESULTS: Out of 770 women who delivered at home, 678 (88%) ingested misoprostol tablets and 647 (84%) ingested the tablets after the birth of the neonate but prior to the delivery of the placenta. The remaining women took misoprostol tablets after delivery of the placenta. Side effects were experienced by 40% of women and were transitory in nature. Among women who delivered at home, 80% said that they would use misoprostol tablets in the future and 74% were willing to purchase them in the future. CONCLUSIONS: Self-administration of misoprostol in the home setting is feasible. Community-based providers, such as traditional birth attendants and community midwives with proper training and counseling, play an important role in reducing postpartum hemorrhage. Proper counseling and information exchange are helpful for introducing new practices in resource-constrained rural communities. Until such a time that skilled birth attendance is made more universally available in the rural setting, alternative strategies, such as training and using the services of traditional birth attendants to provide safe pregnancy care, must be considered

Association Between Overweight or Obesity and Household Income and Parental Body Mass Index in Australian Youth: Analysis of the Australian National Nutrition Survey, 1995

This study is a secondary data analysis based on the 1995 Australian National Nutrition Survey (NNS). A random subsample of 1581 school children aged 7 15 years old from the NNS was studied. The results show the prevalence of overweight, obesity and combined overweight and obesity was 10.6 20.9%, 3.7 7.2% and 15.6 25.7%, respectively. The odds ratio of overweight or obese boys with highest household income was significantly smaller than those with the lowest household income. The proportion of combined overweight and obesity in children whose parents were overweight or obese was significantly greater compared with those whose parents were not. The trend of increasing prevalence of overweight or obesity among children with increasing parental body mass index (BMI) was significant after adjusting for age except the trend of father's BMI for boys. This study provided baseline data on the recent prevalence of overweight or obesity of Australian school children using new international absolute BMI cut-off points. It indicated that young school girls (7 9 years) were more likely to be overweight or obese compared with boys, the prevalence rates of overweight or obesity in older boys (13 15 year) was significantly greater than in other age groups while in girls it was the opposite. The boys with lowest household income ($0 17 500) were more likely to be overweight or obese compared with those with the highest household income (greater than$67 500). Having parents especially mothers who were overweight or obese may increase the risk of children being overweight or obese

Epidemiology of reported Yersinia enterocolitica infections in Germany, 2001-2008

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Yersiniosis is the third most common zoonotic bacterial disease in Germany and the European Union. Sequelae of <it>Yersinia enterocolitica </it>infections, such as reactive arthritis, have been reported. Consumption of pork and its products, especially eaten raw or undercooked, is an important risk factor of yersiniosis. Infection with <it>Y. enterocolitica </it>is notifiable through the national surveillance system for infectious diseases in Germany and several thousands of cases are being reported each year. We present recent data on the epidemiology of reported yersiniosis in Germany.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Surveillance data on yersiniosis, accessed through the national level database (SurvNet), were analyzed with regard to time trends, demographical and geographical distribution, serotypes, and hospitalization, for the time period 2001-2008.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 47,627 cases of yersiniosis were reported. The mean annual incidence of yersiniosis was 7.2/100,000 population. A downward trend in the number of reportable cases has occurred since 2002. Almost all <it>Y. enterocolitica </it>infections were reported as single cases, i.e., with no apparent links to other cases. The number of reported infections showed substantially less seasonal variation than in other zoonotic enteric diseases. The incidence was highest in children under five years (58/100,000 population), in particular in one-year-old children (108/100,000 population). Almost 97% of infections were acquired domestically. High incidences occurred in the eastern German federal states Thuringia, Saxony, and Saxony-Anhalt. Differences in incidences across federal states were driven primarily by incidence differences in children under five years. Hospitalization was reported for 17% of cases, the proportion being highest among teenagers. Almost 90% of <it>Y. enterocolitica </it>strains were diagnosed as serotype O:3, which is the serotype most frequently isolated from pigs.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Yersiniosis is a zoonotic foodborne disease of relevance to public health in Germany because of its high incidence and risk for sequelae. The incidence of reported yersiniosis in Germany varies markedly from state to state, mainly due to incidence difference among young children. More research efforts should be directed towards the elucidation of risk factors of yersiniosis in this age group.</p

A population-based study of human immunodeficiency virus in south India reveals major differences from sentinel surveillance-based estimates

BACKGROUND: The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) burden among adults in India is estimated officially by direct extrapolation of annual sentinel surveillance data from public-sector antenatal and sexually transmitted infection (STI) clinics and some high-risk groups. The validity of these extrapolations has not been systematically examined with a large sample population-based study. METHODS: We sampled 13838 people, 15–49 years old, from 66 rural and urban clusters using a stratified random method to represent adults in Guntur district in the south Indian state of Andhra Pradesh. We interviewed the sampled participants and obtained dried blood spots from them, and tested blood for HIV antibody, antigen and nucleic acid. We calculated the number of people with HIV in Guntur district based on these data, compared it with the estimate using the sentinel surveillance data and method, and analysed health services use data to understand the differences. RESULTS: In total, 12617 people (91.2% of the sampled group) gave a blood sample. Adjusted HIV prevalence was 1.72% (95% confidence interval 1.35–2.09%); men 1.74% (1.27–2.21%), women 1.70% (1.36–2.04%); rural 1.64% (1.10–2.18%), urban 1.89% (1.39–2.39%). HIV prevalence was 2.58% and 1.20% in people in the lower and upper halves of a standard of living index (SLI). Of women who had become pregnant during the past 2 years, 21.1% had used antenatal care in large public-sector hospitals participating in sentinel surveillance. There was an over-representation of the lowest SLI quartile (44.7%) in this group, and 3.61% HIV prevalence versus 1.08% in the remaining pregnant women. HIV prevalence was higher in that group even when women were matched for the same SLI half (lower half 4.39%, upper 2.63%) than in the latter (lower 1.06%, upper 1.05%), due to referral of HIV-positive/suspected women by private practitioners to public hospitals. The sentinel surveillance method (HIV prevalence: antenatal clinic 3%, STI clinic 22.8%, female sex workers 12.8%) led to an estimate of 112635 (4.38%) people with HIV, 15–49 years old, in Guntur district, which was 2.5 times the 45942 (1.79%) estimate based on our population-based study. CONCLUSION: The official method in India leads to a gross overestimation of the HIV burden in this district due to addition of substantial extra HIV estimates from STI clinics, the common practice of referral of HIV-positive/suspected people to public hospitals, and a preferential use of public hospitals by people in lower socioeconomic strata. India may be overestimating its HIV burden with the currently used official estimation method

Effect of high parity on occurrence of anemia in pregnancy: a cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Studies that explore the controversial association between parity and anaemia-in-pregnancy (AIP) were often hampered by not distinguishing incident cases caused by pregnancy from prevalent cases complicated by pregnancy. The authors' aim in conducting this study was to overcome this methodological concern.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A retrospective cohort study was conducted in Oman on 1939 pregnancies among 479 parous female participants with available pregnancy records in a community trial. We collected information from participants, the community trial, and health records of each pregnancy. Throughout the follow-up period, we enumerated 684 AIP cases of which 289 (42.2%) were incident cases. High parity (HP, ≥ 5 pregnancies) accounted for 48.7% of total pregnancies. Two sets of regression analyses were conducted: the first restricted to incident cases only, and the second inclusive of all cases. The relation with parity as a dichotomy and as multiple categories was examined for each set; multi-level logistic regression (MLLR) was employed to produce adjusted models.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In the fully adjusted MLLR models that were restricted to incident cases, women with HP pregnancies had a higher risk of AIP compared to those who had had fewer pregnancies (Risk Ratio, RR = 2.92; 95% CI 2.02, 4.59); the AIP risk increased in a dose-response fashion over multiple categories of parity. In the fully adjusted MLLR models that included all cases, the association disappeared (RR = 1.11; 95% CI 0.91, 1.18) and the dose-response pattern flattened.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study shows the importance of specifying which cases of AIP are incident and provides supportive evidence for a causal relation between parity and occurrence of incidental AIP.</p

High blood pressure in school children: prevalence and risk factors

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence of high blood pressure (HBP) and associated risk factors in school children 8 to 13 years of age. METHODS: Elementary school children (n = 1,066) were examined. Associations between HBP, body mass index (BMI), gender, ethnicity, and acanthosis nigricans (AN) were investigated using a school based cross-sectional study. Blood pressure was measured and the 95(th )percentile was used to determine HBP. Comparisons between children with and without HBP were utilized. The crude and multiple logistic regression adjusted odds ratios were used as measures of association. RESULTS: Females, Hispanics, overweight children, and children with AN had an increased likelihood of HBP. Overweight children (BMI ≥ 85(th )percentile) and those with AN were at least twice as likely to present with HBP after controlling for confounding factors. CONCLUSION: Twenty one percent of school children had HBP, especially the prevalence was higher among the overweight and Hispanic group. The association identified here can be used as independent markers for increased likelihood of HBP in children

Lifetime body size and reproductive factors: comparisons of data recorded prospectively with self reports in middle age

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Data on lifetime exposures are often self-reported in epidemiologic studies, sometimes many years after the relevant age. Validity of self-reported data is usually inferred from their agreement with measured values, but few studies directly quantify the likely effects of reporting errors in body size and reproductive history variables on estimates of disease-exposure associations.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The MRC National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD) and the Million Women Study (MWS) are UK population-based prospective cohorts. The NSHD recruited participants at birth in 1946 and has followed them at regular intervals since then, whereas the MWS recruited women in middle age. For 541 women who were participants in both studies, we used statistical measures of association and agreement to compare self-reported MWS data on body size throughout life and reproductive history, obtained in middle age, to NSHD data measured or reported close to the relevant ages. Likely attenuation of estimates of linear disease-exposure associations due to the combined effects of random and systematic errors was quantified using regression dilution ratios (RDRs).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Data from the two studies were very strongly correlated for current height, weight and body mass index, and age at menopause (Pearson r = 0.91-0.95), strongly correlated for birth weight, parental heights, current waist and hip circumferences and waist-to-height ratio (r = 0.67-0.80), and moderately correlated for age at menarche and waist-to-hip ratio (r = 0.52-0.57). Self-reported categorical body size and clothes size data for various ages were moderately to strongly associated with anthropometry collected at the relevant times (Spearman correlations 0.51-0.79). Overall agreement between the studies was also good for most quantitative variables, although all exhibited both random and systematic reporting error. RDRs ranged from 0.66 to 0.86 for most variables (slight to moderate attenuation), except weight and body mass index (1.02 and 1.04, respectively; little or no attenuation), and age at menarche, birth weight and waist-to-hip ratio (0.44, 0.59 and 0.50, respectively; substantial attenuation).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study provides some evidence that self-reported data on certain anthropometric and reproductive factors may be adequate for describing disease-exposure associations in large epidemiological studies, provided that the effects of reporting errors are quantified and the results are interpreted with caution.</p

Usual choline and betaine dietary intake and incident coronary heart disease: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Low dietary intake of the essential nutrient choline and its metabolite betaine may increase atherogenesis both through effects on homocysteine methylation pathways as well as through choline's antioxidants properties. Nutrient values for many common foods for choline and betaine have recently become available in the U.S. nutrient composition database. Our objective was to assess the association of dietary intake of choline and betaine with incident coronary heart disease (CHD), adjusting for dietary intake measurement error.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a prospective investigation of the relation between usual intake of choline and betaine with the risk of CHD in 14,430 middle-aged men and women of the biethnic Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study. A semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire was used to assess nutrient intake. Proportional hazard regression models were used to calculate the risk of incident CHD. A regression calibration method was used to adjust for measurement error.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>During an average 14 years of follow-up (1987–2002), 1,072 incident CHD events were documented. Compared with the lowest quartile of intake, incident CHD risk was slightly and non-significantly higher in the highest quartile of choline and choline plus betaine, HR = 1.22 (0.91, 1.64) and HR = 1.14 (0.85, 1.53), controlling for age, sex, education, total energy intake, dietary intakes of folate, methionine and vitamin B₆. No association was found between dietary choline intake and incident CHD when correcting for measurement error.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Higher intakes of choline and betaine were not protective for incident CHD. Similar investigations in other populations are of interest.</p

Repeatability and measurement error in the assessment of choline and betaine dietary intake: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

Abstract Background The repeatability of a risk factor measurement affects the ability to accurately ascertain its association with a specific outcome. Choline is involved in methylation of homocysteine, a putative risk factor for cardiovascular disease, to methionine through a betaine-dependent pathway (one-carbon metabolism). It is unknown whether dietary intake of choline meets the recommended Adequate Intake (AI) proposed for choline (550 mg/day for men and 425 mg/day for women). The Estimated Average Requirement (EAR) remains to be established in population settings. Our objectives were to ascertain the reliability of choline and related nutrients (folate and methionine) intakes assessed with a brief food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) and to estimate dietary intake of choline and betaine in a bi-ethnic population. Methods We estimated the FFQ dietary instrument reliability for the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study and the measurement error for choline and related nutrients from a stratified random sample of the ARIC study participants at the second visit, 1990–92 (N = 1,004). In ARIC, a population-based cohort of 15,792 men and women aged 45–64 years (1987–89) recruited at four locales in the U.S., diet was assessed in 15,706 baseline study participants using a version of the Willett 61-item FFQ, expanded to include some ethnic foods. Intraindividual variability for choline, folate and methionine were estimated using mixed models regression. Results Measurement error was substantial for the nutrients considered. The reliability coefficients were 0.50 for choline (0.50 for choline plus betaine), 0.53 for folate, 0.48 for methionine and 0.43 for total energy intake. In the ARIC population, the median and the 75th percentile of dietary choline intake were 284 mg/day and 367 mg/day, respectively. 94% of men and 89% of women had an intake of choline below that proposed as AI. African Americans had a lower dietary intake of choline in both genders. Conclusion The three-year reliability of reported dietary intake was similar for choline and related nutrients, in the range as that published in the literature for other micronutrients. Using a brief FFQ to estimate intake, the majority of individuals in the ARIC cohort had an intake of choline below the values proposed as AI