Cross-validation of two prognostic trauma scores in severely injured patients

Introduction Trauma scoring systems are important tools for outcome prediction and severity adjustment that informs trauma quality assessment and research. Discrimination and precision of such systems is tested in validation studies. The German TraumaRegister DGU® (TR-DGU) and the Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN) from the UK agreed on a cross-validation study to validate their prediction scores (RISC II and PS14, respectively). Methods Severe trauma patients with an Injury Severity Score (ISS) ≥ 9 documented in 2015 and 2016 were selected in both registries (primary admissions only). The predictive scores from each registry were applied to the selected data sets. Observed and predicted mortality were compared to assess precision; area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used for discrimination. Hosmer–Lemeshow statistic was calculated for calibration. A subgroup analysis including patients treated in intensive care unit (ICU) was also carried out. Results From TR-DGU, 40,638 patients were included (mortality 11.7%). The RISC II predicted mortality was 11.2%, while PS14 predicted 16.9% mortality. From TARN, 64,622 patients were included (mortality 9.7%). PS14 predicted 10.6% mortality, while RISC II predicted 17.7%. Despite the identical cutoff of ISS ≥ 9, patient groups from both registries showed considerable difference in need for intensive care (88% versus 18%). Subgroup analysis of patients treated on ICU showed nearly identical values for observed and predicted mortality using RISC II. Discussion Each score performed well within its respective registry, but when applied to the other registry a decrease in performance was observed. Part of this loss of performance could be explained by different development data sets: the RISC II is mainly based on patients treated in an ICU, while the PS14 includes cases mainly cared for outside ICU with more moderate injury severity. This is according to the respective inclusion criteria of the two registries. Conclusion External validations of prediction models between registries are needed, but may show that prediction models are not fully transferable to other health-care settings

5-Aminolaevulinic Acid (ALA) for the Fluorescence Detection of Bronchial Tumors

At the moment only early detection of lung cancer offers a good prognosis for the patients. Conventional white light endoscopy is mostly insufficient for early diagnosis. Therefore we developed a system of fluorescence diagnosis using 5-aminolaevulinic acid (ALA) exogeneously applied. As precursor of the heme synthesis it is metabolized to protoporphyrin IX – a red fluorescent substance. Therefore protoporphyrin IX accumulates in tumorous and premalignant tissue, and can be directly visualized by fluorescence bronchoscopy. Excitation with blue light (380–435 nm) causes a red fluorescence, which can be detected after filtering most of the blue component with the naked eye or a camera system. After earlier work with laser systems and cold light sources we now use the system D-Light AF for the fluorescence diagnosis using ALA-induced protoporphyrin IX fluorescence

The sequential trauma score - a new instrument for the sequential mortality prediction in major trauma*

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There are several well established scores for the assessment of the prognosis of major trauma patients that all have in common that they can be calculated at the earliest during intensive care unit stay. We intended to develop a sequential trauma score (STS) that allows prognosis at several early stages based on the information that is available at a particular time.</p> <p>Study design</p> <p>In a retrospective, multicenter study using data derived from the Trauma Registry of the German Trauma Society (2002-2006), we identified the most relevant prognostic factors from the patients basic data (P), prehospital phase (A), early (B1), and late (B2) trauma room phase. Univariate and logistic regression models as well as score quality criteria and the explanatory power have been calculated.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 2,354 patients with complete data were identified. From the patients basic data (P), logistic regression showed that age was a significant predictor of survival (AUC_{model p}, area under the curve = 0.63). Logistic regression of the prehospital data (A) showed that blood pressure, pulse rate, Glasgow coma scale (GCS), and anisocoria were significant predictors (AUC_{model A}= 0.76; AUC_{model P + A}= 0.82). Logistic regression of the early trauma room phase (B1) showed that peripheral oxygen saturation, GCS, anisocoria, base excess, and thromboplastin time to be significant predictors of survival (AUC_{model B1}= 0.78; AUC_{model P +A + B1}= 0.85). Multivariate analysis of the late trauma room phase (B2) detected cardiac massage, abbreviated injury score (AIS) of the head ≥ 3, the maximum AIS, the need for transfusion or massive blood transfusion, to be the most important predictors (AUCmodel B2 = 0.84; AUCfinal model P + A + B1 + B2 = 0.90). The explanatory power - a tool for the assessment of the relative impact of each segment to mortality - is 25% for P, 7% for A, 17% for B1 and 51% for B2. A spreadsheet for the easy calculation of the sequential trauma score is available at: <url>http://www.sequential-trauma-score.com</url></p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This score is the first sequential, dynamic score to provide a prognosis for patients with blunt major trauma at several points in time. With every additional piece of information the precision increases. The medical team has a simple, useful tool to identify patients at high risk and to predict the prognosis of an individual patient with major trauma very early, quickly and precisely.</p

Natural history, clinical pattern, and surgical considerations of pneumatosis intestinalis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Objective</p> <p>Pneumatosis intestinalis has been increasingly detected in recent years with the more frequent use of computed tomography for abdominal imaging of the intestine. The underlying causes of the gas found during radiographic studies of the bowel wall can vary widely and different hypotheses regarding its pathophysiology have been postulated. Pneumatosis intestinalis often represents a benign condition and should not be considered an argument for surgery. However, it can also require life-threatening surgery in some cases, and this can be a difficult decision in some patients.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The spectrum of pneumatosis intestinalis is discussed here based on various computed tomographic and surgical findings in patients who presented at our University Medical Centre in 2003-2008. We have also systematically reviewed the literature to establish the current understanding of its aetiology and pathophysiology, and the possible clinical conditions associated with pneumatosis intestinalis and their management.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Pneumatosis intestinalis is a primary radiographic finding. After its diagnosis, its specific pathogenesis should be ascertained because the appropriate therapy is related to the underlying cause of pneumatosis intestinalis, and this is sometimes difficult to define. Surgical treatment should be considered urgent in symptomatic patients presenting with an acute abdomen, signs of ischemia, or bowel obstruction. In asymptomatic patients with otherwise inconspicuous findings, the underlying disease should be treated first, rather than urgent exploratory surgery considered. Extensive and comprehensive information on the pathophysiology and clinical findings of pneumatosis intestinalis is provided here and is incorporated into a treatment algorithm.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The information presented here allows a better understanding of the radiographic diagnosis and underlying aetiology of pneumatosis intestinalis, and may facilitate the decision-making process in this context, thus providing fast and adequate therapy to particular patients.</p

PANIC: the new panoramic NIR camera for Calar Alto

PANIC is a wide-field NIR camera, which is currently under development for the Calar Alto observatory (CAHA) in Spain. It uses a mosaic of four Hawaii-2RG detectors and covers the spectral range from 0.8-2.5 micron(z to K-band). The field-of-view is 30x30 arcmin. This instrument can be used at the 2.2m telescope (0.45arcsec/pixel, 0.5x0.5 degree FOV) and at the 3.5m telescope (0.23arcsec/pixel, 0.25x0.25 degree FOV). The operating temperature is about 77K, achieved by liquid Nitrogen cooling. The cryogenic optics has three flat folding mirrors with diameters up to 282 mm and nine lenses with diameters between 130 mm and 255 mm. A compact filter unit can carry up to 19 filters distributed over four filter wheels. Narrow band (1%) filters can be used. The instrument has a diameter of 1.1 m and it is about 1 m long. The weight limit of 400 kg at the 2.2m telescope requires a light-weight cryostat design. The aluminium vacuum vessel and radiation shield have wall thicknesses of only 6 mm and 3 mm respectively.Comment: This paper has been presented in the SPIE of Astronomical Telescopes and Instrumentation 2008 in Marseille (France

Duration and predictors of emergency surgical operations - basis for medical management of mass casualty incidents

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hospitals have a critically important role in the management of mass causality incidents (MCI), yet there is little information to assist emergency planners. A significantly limiting factor of a hospital's capability to treat those affected is its surgical capacity. We therefore intended to provide data about the duration and predictors of life saving operations.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The data of 20,815 predominantly blunt trauma patients recorded in the Trauma Registry of the German-Trauma-Society was retrospectively analyzed to calculate the duration of life-saving operations as well as their predictors. Inclusion criteria were an ISS ≥ 16 and the performance of relevant ICPM-coded procedures within 6 h of admission.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>From 1,228 patients fulfilling the inclusion criteria 1,793 operations could be identified as life-saving operations. Acute injuries to the abdomen accounted for 54.1% followed by head injuries (26.3%), pelvic injuries (11.5%), thoracic injuries (5.0%) and major amputations (3.1%). The mean cut to suture time was 130 min (IQR 65-165 min). Logistic regression revealed 8 variables associated with an emergency operation: AIS of abdomen ≥ 3 (OR 4,00), ISS ≥ 35 (OR 2,94), hemoglobin level ≤ 8 mg/dL (OR 1,40), pulse rate on hospital admission < 40 or > 120/min (OR 1,39), blood pressure on hospital admission < 90 mmHg (OR 1,35), prehospital infusion volume ≥ 2000 ml (OR 1,34), GCS ≤ 8 (OR 1,32) and anisocoria (OR 1,28) on-scene.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The mean operation time of 130 min calculated for emergency life-saving surgical operations provides a realistic guideline for the prospective treatment capacity which can be estimated and projected into an actual incident admission capacity. Knowledge of predictive factors for life-saving emergency operations helps to identify those patients that need most urgent operative treatment in case of blunt MCI.</p

Filtering Genes for Cluster and Network Analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Prior to cluster analysis or genetic network analysis it is customary to filter, or remove genes considered to be irrelevant from the set of genes to be analyzed. Often genes whose variation across samples is less than an arbitrary threshold value are deleted. This can improve interpretability and reduce bias.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>This paper introduces modular models for representing network structure in order to study the relative effects of different filtering methods. We show that cluster analysis and principal components are strongly affected by filtering. Filtering methods intended specifically for cluster and network analysis are introduced and compared by simulating modular networks with known statistical properties. To study more realistic situations, we analyze simulated "real" data based on well-characterized E. coli and S. cerevisiae regulatory networks.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The methods introduced apply very generally, to any similarity matrix describing gene expression. One of the proposed methods, SUMCOV, performed well for all models simulated.</p

Precision Electroweak Data and Unification of Couplings in Warped Extra Dimensions

Warped extra dimensions allow a novel way of solving the hierarchy problem, with all fundamental mass parameters of the theory naturally of the order of the Planck scale. The observable value of the Higgs vacuum expectation value is red-shifted, due to the localization of the Higgs field in the extra dimension. It has been recently observed that, when the gauge fields propagate in the bulk, unification of the gauge couplings may be achieved. Moreover, the propagation of fermions in the bulk allows for a simple solution to potentially dangerous proton decay problems. However, bulk gauge fields and fermions pose a phenomenological challenge, since they tend to induce large corrections to the precision electroweak observables. In this article, we study in detail the effect of gauge and fermion fields propagating in the bulk in the presence of gauge brane kinetic terms compatible with gauge coupling unification, and we present ways of obtaining a consistent description of experimental data, while allowing values of the first Kaluza Klein mode masses of the order of a few TeV.Comment: 32 pages, 7 figures. References adde

REM Sleep, Prefrontal Theta, and the Consolidation of Human Emotional Memory

Both emotion and sleep are independently known to modulate declarative memory. Memory can be facilitated by emotion, leading to enhanced consolidation across increasing time delays. Sleep also facilitates offline memory processing, resulting in superior recall the next day. Here we explore whether rapid eye movement (REM) sleep, and aspects of its unique neurophysiology, underlie these convergent influences on memory. Using a nap paradigm, we measured the consolidation of neutral and negative emotional memories, and the association with REM-sleep electrophysiology. Subjects that napped showed a consolidation benefit for emotional but not neutral memories. The No-Nap control group showed no evidence of a consolidation benefit for either memory type. Within the Nap group, the extent of emotional memory facilitation was significantly correlated with the amount of REM sleep and also with right-dominant prefrontal theta power during REM. Together, these data support the role of REM-sleep neurobiology in the consolidation of emotional human memories, findings that have direct translational implications for affective psychiatric and mood disorders