A Monte Carlo Study of Growth Regressions

Using Monte Carlo simulations, this paper evaluates the bias properties of common estimators used in growth regressions derived from the Solow model. We explicitly allow for measurement error in the right-hand side variables, as well as country-specific effects that are correlated with the regressors. Our results suggest that using an OLS estimator applied to a single cross-section of variables averaged over time (the between estimator) performs best in terms of the extent of bias on each of the estimated coefficients. The fixed-effects estimator and the Arellano-Bond estimator greatly overstate the speed of convergence under a wide variety of assumptions concerning the type and extent of measurement error, while between understates it somewhat. Finally, fixed effects and Arellano-Bond bias towards zero the slope estimates on the human and physical capital accumulation variables.

Job Creation and Trade in Manufactures: Industry-Level Analysis Across Countries

This paper examines industry-level responses of manufacturing employment in the context of globalization using a large sample of developed, developing, and transition economies. We find that developing countries need atypically high rates of value-added growth (about 10 %) to increase manufacturing employment appreciably (about 4 %). The employment benefits of export orientation are also modest even in “comparative advantage” industries of developing countries. However, diversifying the export basket contributes significantly to employment growth, particularly in the medium- and high-technology industries. Import competition does not undermine employment growth in low-technology industries of developing countries while it displaces jobs in the same industries in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and transition economies. For developing countries, import-induced job losses are higher in the more capital-intensive medium-technology industries. Jobs in high-technology industries are less sensitive to imports with positive relationships observed in the OECD. Investment also complements job creation in low-technology industries of developing countries that have yet to industrialize

Relationship Between Trade Liberalisation, Growth and Balance of Payments in Developing Countries: An Econometric Study

The objectives of this paper are to study the impact of liberalisation on trade deficits and current accounts of developing countries. It is expected that trade liberalisation would promote economic growth from the supply side by leading to a more efficient use of resources, by encouraging competition, and by increasing the flow of ideas and knowledge across national boundaries. Trade liberalisation could lead to faster import growth than export growth and hence the supply side benefits may be offset by the unsustainable balance of payments position. This study uses panel data of 42 countries (both time-series and cross-section dimension) to estimate the effect of trade liberalisation and growth on trade balance while controlling for other factors such as income terms of trade. The major finding of the study is that trade liberalisation promotes growth in most cases, (Part 1 of this study) the growth itself has a negative impact on trade balance and this in turn could have negative impacts on growth through deterioration in trade balance and adverse terms of trade. Our conclusion is that trade liberalisation could constrain growth through adverse impact on balance of payments

De-Industrialisation, Entrepreneurial Industries and Welfare

We develop a two-sector general equilibrium model with monopolistic competition featuring nonhomothetic production and a variable demand elasticity for the manufactured goods. An increase in the relative price of manufacturing varieties can lead to a decline in total industrial output in our framework, i.e., to de-industrialisation. The two key mechanisms behind this surprising result are that the founding of firms requires skilled labour as a fixed input requirement, and that the price increase can raise the profit margin in the manufacturing industry and thereby induce firm entry. When the manufacturing sector mainly adjusts at the extensive margin, we refer to this industry as being entrepreneurial. Due to the fixed input requirement entry reduces the effective endowment of skilled labour available for production. This reduces industrial output owing to a novel generalized version of the Rybczynski effect. De-industrialisation occurs if that effect is sufficiently large in comparison with the standard output price effect for a given number of firms. Furthermore we prove the counterintuitive result that de-industrialisation implies a fall in the output per firm and under plausible conditions a rise in welfare. Our results shed new light on the current debates about possible causes of premature de-industrialisation and its welfare effects

Openness to International Trade and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Investigation

In this paper, we revisit the empirical evidence on the relationship between trade openness and long-run economic growth over the sample period 1960-2000. In contrast to previous studies focusing mainly on the period 1970-1990, this paper reassesses the openness-growth nexus over a much longer sample period, enabling us to better account both trade policy stance and long-run growth dynamics. We carry out our empirical investigation by employing various openness measures suggested in the literature rather than relying on a few proxy variables. We also construct three additional composite trade policy indexes directly measuring trade policy stance. Our findings indicate that many openness variables are positively and significantly correlated with long-run economic growth. However, in some cases, this result is driven by the presence of a few outlying countries. Adding to the fragility of the openness-growth association, the significance of openness variables disappears once other growth determinants, such as institutions, population heterogeneity, geography and macroeconomic stability are accounted for