Climate Change and the Potential Distribution of an Invasive Shrub, Lantana camara L

The threat posed by invasive species, in particular weeds, to biodiversity may be exacerbated by climate change. Lantana camara L. (lantana) is a woody shrub that is highly invasive in many countries of the world. It has a profound economic and environmental impact worldwide, including Australia. Knowledge of the likely potential distribution of this invasive species under current and future climate will be useful in planning better strategies to manage the invasion. A process-oriented niche model of L. camara was developed using CLIMEX to estimate its potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. The model was calibrated using data from several knowledge domains, including phenological observations and geographic distribution records. The potential distribution of lantana under historical climate exceeded the current distribution in some areas of the world, notably Africa and Asia. Under future scenarios, the climatically suitable areas for L. camara globally were projected to contract. However, some areas were identified in North Africa, Europe and Australia that may become climatically suitable under future climates. In South Africa and China, its potential distribution could expand further inland. These results can inform strategic planning by biosecurity agencies, identifying areas to target for eradication or containment. Distribution maps of risk of potential invasion can be useful tools in public awareness campaigns, especially in countries that have been identified as becoming climatically suitable for L. camara under the future climate scenarios

Impacts of climate change on plant diseases – opinions and trends

There has been a remarkable scientific output on the topic of how climate change is likely to affect plant diseases in the coming decades. This review addresses the need for review of this burgeoning literature by summarizing opinions of previous reviews and trends in recent studies on the impacts of climate change on plant health. Sudden Oak Death is used as an introductory case study: Californian forests could become even more susceptible to this emerging plant disease, if spring precipitations will be accompanied by warmer temperatures, although climate shifts may also affect the current synchronicity between host cambium activity and pathogen colonization rate. A summary of observed and predicted climate changes, as well as of direct effects of climate change on pathosystems, is provided. Prediction and management of climate change effects on plant health are complicated by indirect effects and the interactions with global change drivers. Uncertainty in models of plant disease development under climate change calls for a diversity of management strategies, from more participatory approaches to interdisciplinary science. Involvement of stakeholders and scientists from outside plant pathology shows the importance of trade-offs, for example in the land-sharing vs. sparing debate. Further research is needed on climate change and plant health in mountain, boreal, Mediterranean and tropical regions, with multiple climate change factors and scenarios (including our responses to it, e.g. the assisted migration of plants), in relation to endophytes, viruses and mycorrhiza, using long-term and large-scale datasets and considering various plant disease control methods

Predicting the Potential Worldwide Distribution of the Red Palm Weevil Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) using Ecological Niche Modeling

This is the publisher's version, also available electronically from http://www.bioone.org/doi/abs/10.1653/024.095.0317.The red palm weevil (RPW), Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), ranks among the most important pests of various palm species. The pest originates from South and Southeast Asia, but has expanded its range dramatically since the 1980s. We used ecological niche modeling (ENM) approaches to explore its likely geographic potential. Two techniques, the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) and a maximum entropy approach (MaxEnt), were used. However, MaxEnt provided more significant results, with all 5 random replicate subsamples having P < 0.002 while GARP models failed to achieve statistical significance in 3 of 5 cases, in which predictions achieved probabilities of 0.07 < P < 0.10. The MaxEnt models predicted successfully the known distribution, including the single North American occurrence point of Laguna Beach, California, and various areas where the pest has been reported in North Africa, southern Europe, Middle East and South and Southeastern Asia. In addition, areas where the pest has not been yet reported were found to be suitable for invasion by RPW in sub-Saharan Africa, southern, central and northern America, Asia, Europe, and Oceania. Highly suitable areas in the United States of America were limited mostly to coastal California and southern Florida, while all Caribbean islands were found highly suitable for establishment and spread of the pest

Future climate effects on suitability for growth of oil palms in Malaysia and Indonesia

The production of palm oil (PO) is highly profitable. The economies of the principal producers, Malaysia and Indonesia, and others, benefit considerably. Climate change (CC) will most likely have an impact on the distribution of oil palms (OP) (Elaeis guineensis). Here we present modelled CC projections with respect to the suitability of growing OP, in Malaysia and Indonesia. A process-oriented niche model of OP was developed using CLIMEX to estimate its potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. Two Global Climate Models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC-H, were used to explore the impacts of CC under the A1B and A2 scenarios for 2030, 2070 and 2100. Decreases in climatic suitability for OP in the region were gradual by 2030 but became more pronounced by 2100. These projections imply that OP growth will be affected severely by CC, with obvious implications to the economies of (a) Indonesia and Malaysia and (b) the PO industry, but with potential benefits towards reducing CC. A possible remedial action is to concentrate research on development of new varieties of OP that are less vulnerable to CC.The Portuguese-based authors thank the FCT Strategic Project of UID/BIO/04469/2013 unit, the project RECI/BBB-EBI/0179/2012 (FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-027462) and the Project "BioEnv - Biotechnology and Bioengineering for a sustainable world", REF. NORTE-07-0124-FEDER-000048, co-funded by the Programa Operacional Regional do Norte (ON.2 - O Novo Norte), QREN, FEDER

The Role of Climate Variability in the Spread of Malaria in Bangladeshi Highlands

Malaria is a major public health problem in Bangladesh, frequently occurring as epidemics since the 1990s. Many factors affect increases in malaria cases, including changes in land use, drug resistance, malaria control programs, socioeconomic issues, and climatic factors. No study has examined the relationship between malaria epidemics and climatic factors in Bangladesh. Here, we investigate the relationship between climatic parameters [rainfall, temperature, humidity, sea surface temperature (SST), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)], and malaria cases over the last 20 years in the malaria endemic district of Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT)

Morphology of the first instar larva of obligatory traumatic myiasis agents (Diptera: Calliphoridae, Sarcophagidae)

There are only three fly species that are obligate agents of traumatic myiasis of humans and livestock: a single species of flesh fly, Wohlfahrtia magnifica (Sarcophagidae), and two species of blow flies, Chrysomya bezziana and Cochliomyia hominivorax (Calliphoridae). The morphology of their first instar larvae is thoroughly and consistently documented here with light microscopy photographs and scanning electron microscopy micrographs. The following morphological structures are documented: pseudocephalon, antennal complex, maxillary palpus, oral ridges, thoracic and abdominal spinulation, spiracular field, posterior spiracles and cephaloskeleton. New diagnostic features drawn from the cephaloskeleton and the spinulation of abdominal segments, including the anal pad, are discovered and extensively described. Earlier descriptions in the literature are revisited, and major discrepancies between these and the results of the current study are discussed. The present results allow clarification, correction and, especially, complementation of information provided by earlier authors. The relatively distant taxonomic position of all three species is evidence that obligatory myiasis has arisen independently, and the extensively similar morphology in the first instar larvae of Chrysomya bezziana, Cochliomyia hominivorax and W. magnifica in comparison to necrophagous species, especially the enhancement of the anterior part of the cephaloskeleton and the segmental spinulation, is therefore best interpreted as homoplasic adaptations to a life strategy as obligate vertebrate parasites. An identification key for first instar larvae of all obligatory traumatic myiasis agents of mammals is provided.Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits any use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and the source are credited

Assessment of Virally Vectored Autoimmunity as a Biocontrol Strategy for Cane Toads

BACKGROUND: The cane toad, Bufo (Chaunus) marinus, is one of the most notorious vertebrate pests introduced into Australia over the last 200 years and, so far, efforts to identify a naturally occurring B. marinus-specific pathogen for use as a biological control agent have been unsuccessful. We explored an alternative approach that entailed genetically modifying a pathogen with broad host specificity so that it no longer caused disease, but carried a gene to disrupt the cane toad life cycle in a species specific manner. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The adult beta globin gene was selected as the model gene for proof of concept of autoimmunity as a biocontrol method for cane toads. A previous report showed injection of bullfrog tadpoles with adult beta globin resulted in an alteration in the form of beta globin expressed in metamorphs as well as reduced survival. In B. marinus we established for the first time that the switch from tadpole to adult globin exists. The effect of injecting B. marinus tadpoles with purified recombinant adult globin protein was then assessed using behavioural (swim speed in tadpoles and jump length in metamorphs), developmental (time to metamorphosis, weight and length at various developmental stages, protein profile of adult globin) and genetic (adult globin mRNA levels) measures. However, we were unable to detect any differences between treated and control animals. Further, globin delivery using Bohle iridovirus, an Australian ranavirus isolate belonging to the Iridovirus family, did not reduce the survival of metamorphs or alter the form of beta globin expressed in metamorphs. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: While we were able to show for the first time that the switch from tadpole to adult globin does occur in B. marinus, we were not able to induce autoimmunity and disrupt metamorphosis. The short development time of B. marinus tadpoles may preclude this approach

Improving climate suitability for Bemisia tabaci in East Africa is correlated with increased prevalence of whiteflies and cassava diseases

Projected climate changes are thought to promote emerging infectious diseases, though to date, evidence linking climate changes and such diseases in plants has not been available. Cassava is perhaps the most important crop in Africa for smallholder farmers. Since the late 1990's there have been reports from East and Central Africa of pandemics of begomoviruses in cassava linked to high abundances of whitefly species within the Bemisia tabaci complex. We used CLIMEX, a process-oriented climatic niche model, to explore if this pandemic was linked to recent historical climatic changes. The climatic niche model was corroborated with independent observed field abundance of B. tabaci in Uganda over a 13-year time-series, and with the probability of occurrence of B. tabaci over 2 years across the African study area. Throughout a 39-year climate time-series spanning the period during which the pandemics emerged, the modelled climatic conditions for B. tabaci improved significantly in the areas where the pandemics had been reported and were constant or decreased elsewhere. This is the first reported case where observed historical climate changes have been attributed to the increase in abundance of an insect pest, contributing to a crop disease pandemic

Assessment of Yellow Fever Epidemic Risk: An Original Multi-criteria Modeling Approach

This article describes the use of an original modeling approach to assess the risk of yellow fever (YF) epidemics. YF is a viral hemorrhagic fever responsible in past centuries for devastating outbreaks. Since the 1930s, a vaccine has been available that protects the individual for at least 10 years, if not for life. However, immunization of populations in African countries was gradually discontinued after the 1960s. With the decrease in immunity against YF in African populations the disease reemerged in the 1980s. In 2005, WHO, UNICEF, and the GAVI Alliance decided to support preventive vaccination of at-risk populations in West African endemic countries in order to tackle the reemergence of YF and reduce the risk of urban YF outbreaks. Financial resources were made available to scale up a global YF vaccine stockpile and to support countries with limited resources in the management of preventive vaccination campaigns. This article describes the process we used to determine the most at-risk populations using a mathematical model to prioritize targeted immunization campaigns. We believe that this approach could be useful for other diseases for which decision making process is difficult because of limited data availability, complex risk variables, and a need for rapid decisions and implementation