Journeys Home: Tracking the most vulnerable

In 2010 the Australian Government commissioned The Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research at the University of Melbourne to undertake "Journeys Home (JH): A Longitudinal Study of the Factors Affecting Housing Stability". The broad aim of JH was to improve the understanding of, and policy responses to, the diverse social, economic and personal factors related to homelessness and the risk of becoming homeless. Importantly, JH is one of the first longitudinal studies of homeless people that both draws it sample from a wide population and includes people who are vulnerable to homelessness. This paper provides a brief summary of the JH survey, discussing its aims, survey design, data collection process, and response outcomes over its six waves of data collection. It also highlights some of the initial research that has been published utilising the data since its release

Surface treatment of glass vials for lyophilization: Implications for vacuum-induced surface freezing

Freeze-drying is commonly used to increase the shelf-life of pharmaceuticals and biopharmaceuticals. Freezing represents a crucial phase in the freeze-drying process, as it determines both cycle efficiency and product quality. For this reason, different strategies have been developed to allow for a better control of freezing, among them, the so-called vacuum-induced surface freezing (VISF), which makes it possible to trigger nucleation at the same time in all the vials being processed. We studied the effect of different vial types, characterized by the presence of hydrophilic (sulfate treatment) or hydrophobic (siliconization and TopLyo Si–O–C–H layer) inner coatings, on the application of VISF. We observed that hydrophobic coatings promoted boiling and blow-up phenomena, resulting in unacceptable aesthetic defects in the final product. In contrast, hydrophilic coatings increased the risk of fogging (i.e., the undesired creeping of the product upward along the inner vial surface). We also found that the addition of a surfactant (Tween 80) to the formulation suppressed boiling in hydrophobic-coated vials, but it enhanced the formation of bubbles. This undesired bubbling events induced by the surfactant could, however, be eliminated by a degassing step prior to the application of VISF. Overall, the combination of degasification and surfactant addition seems to be a promising strategy for the successful induction of nucleation by VISF in hydrophobic vials

The effects of China’ s VAT enlargement reform on the income redistribution of urban households

Background: China's former goods and service tax (GST) system subjects sale of goods to VAT and provision of services to business tax. The VAT enlargement reform launched in 2012 aimed to replace the business tax with VAT step by step. This paper is intended to explore the redistribution effects of this reform. Methods: On basis of input-output model and statutory tax rates, this paper derives the measurement of full GST burden of households in China where both VAT and business tax are imposed. Using the 2012 urban household survey data, the redistribution effects of the VAT enlargement reform is estimated by comparing the Gini coefficient and general entropy indexes before and after the reform. Results: The VAT enlargement reform has improved the redistribution effects of China's GST system mainly through lowering the average tax burden and reducing the inequality within the lowest-income group, though the inequality among different income groups was not reduced considerably. Conclusions: Compared with overall rate reduction, greater relief to necessity items could improve the redistribution effects of the future VAT system more effectively

Tracking the progressive spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Italy, December 2021 to January 2022

Background: The SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern Omicron was first detected in Italy in November 2021. Aim: To comprehensively describe Omicron spread in Italy in the 2 subsequent months and its impact on the overall SARS-CoV-2 circulation at population level. Methods: We analyse data from four genomic surveys conducted across the country between December 2021 and January 2022. Combining genomic sequencing results with epidemiological records collated by the National Integrated Surveillance System, the Omicron reproductive number and exponential growth rate are estimated, as well as SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility. Results: Omicron became dominant in Italy less than 1 month after its first detection, representing on 3 January 76.9-80.2% of notified SARS-CoV-2 infections, with a doubling time of 2.7-3.3 days. As of 17 January 2022, Delta variant represented < 6% of cases. During the Omicron expansion in December 2021, the esti-mated mean net reproduction numbers respectively rose from 1.15 to a maximum of 1.83 for symptomatic cases and from 1.14 to 1.36 for hospitalised cases, while remaining relatively stable, between 0.93 and 1.21, for cases needing intensive care. Despite a reduc-tion in relative proportion, Delta infections increased in absolute terms throughout December contributing to an increase in hospitalisations. A significant repro-duction numbers' decline was found after mid-January, with average estimates dropping below 1 between 10 and 16 January 2022. Conclusion: Estimates suggest a marked growth advantage of Omicron compared with Delta variant, but lower disease severity at popula-tion level possibly due to residual immunity against severe outcomes acquired from vaccination and prior infection

Effects of the Australian new tax system on government expenditure with and without behavioural changes

ISSN 1328-4991 (Print) ISSN 1447-5863 (Online) ISBN 0734031211 MIWP No. 9/03This paper uses the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator to examine the effects of the New Tax System introduced in Australia in July 2000. First the whole set of changes is studied and then some of its components are discussed separately. From the results it is clear that the change in income tax rates and thresholds had the largest effect, because it affected a large proportion of the population whereas the changes to the benefit system are only relevant to smaller groups. Families with children benefited on average most from the changes, firstly through the changes in income taxes and secondly through the changes in Family Payments. However, families with children were also more likely to experience a loss indicating a wider range of positive and negative outcomes for this group

The effects of household joblessness on mental health

C1 - Refereed Journal ArticleIt is widely assumed that the economic and social costs that unemployment gives rise to must be exacerbated where joblessness is concentrated within families. This hypothesis is tested in this paper. Specifically, data from the first five waves of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey (HILDA), a nationally representative household panel survey administered in Australia, are used to test whether jobless individuals score worse on a measure of mental health when they live in households with other jobless people. Consistent with previous research, unemployment is found to be associated with lower levels of mental health. No evidence, however, can be found for any additional disadvantage to the unemployed stemming from living in a jobless household

Consumer Sentiment and Australian Consumer Spending

There is a growing literature that seeks to analyse the relationship between consumer sentiment and economic variables, primarily because of the pervasive belief that consumers' opinions and expectations can influence the direction of-or signal changes in the direction of-the economy. There has been little previous empirical work on Australian consumer sentiment, either in determining its explanatory power, or examining the factors that influence consumer sentiment. This research aims to fill part of this gap by providing a clearer understanding of the relationship between consumer attitudes and 'real' economic variables. Specifically, the predictive power of the consumer sentiment index for consumption will be examined using the methods proposed in Carroll, Fuhrer and Wilcox (1994). Private consumption expenditure accounts for a large proportion of GDP; hence, early detection of possible shifts in consumer spending could assist policy makers in smoothing out the business cycle. Our results suggest that the causal relationship between consumption and sentiment in Australia is more complicated than what Carroll et al suggest, and that the behaviour of consumption in Australia looks more like the permanent income hypothesis than it does in the US

Robust asset allocation strategies: relaxed versus classical robustness

Many optimization problems involve parameters which are not known in advance, but can only be forecast or estimated. Such problems fit perfectly into the framework of Robust Optimization that, given optimization problems with uncertain parameters, looks for solutions that will achieve good objective function values for the realization of these parameters in given uncertainty sets. Aim of this paper is to investigate and compare alternative forms of robustness in the context of portfolio asset allocation. Starting with a relaxed form of robustness, which allows one to specify not only the values of the uncertainty parameters, but also their degree of feasibility, in the first part of the paper we propose a family of relaxed robust models, called norm-portfolio models, which use general norms to relax the classical notion of robustness. Then, in the second part we test some norm-portfolio models, as well as various robust strategies from the literature, with real market data on different data sets. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt at comparing robust strategies of different kinds in the framework of portfolio asset allocation