Launch vehicle error sensitivity study

Booster trajectory optimization for launch vehicle range sensitivity analysi

Isolation in the construction of natural experiments

A natural experiment is a type of observational study in which treatment assignment, though not randomized by the investigator, is plausibly close to random. A process that assigns treatments in a highly nonrandom, inequitable manner may, in rare and brief moments, assign aspects of treatments at random or nearly so. Isolating those moments and aspects may extract a natural experiment from a setting in which treatment assignment is otherwise quite biased, far from random. Isolation is a tool that focuses on those rare, brief instances, extracting a small natural experiment from otherwise useless data. We discuss the theory behind isolation and illustrate its use in a reanalysis of a well-known study of the effects of fertility on workforce participation. Whether a woman becomes pregnant at a certain moment in her life and whether she brings that pregnancy to term may reflect her aspirations for family, education and career, the degree of control she exerts over her fertility, and the quality of her relationship with the father; moreover, these aspirations and relationships are unlikely to be recorded with precision in surveys and censuses, and they may confound studies of workforce participation. However, given that a women is pregnant and will bring the pregnancy to term, whether she will have twins or a single child is, to a large extent, simply luck. Given that a woman is pregnant at a certain moment, the differential comparison of two types of pregnancies on workforce participation, twins or a single child, may be close to randomized, not biased by unmeasured aspirations. In this comparison, we find in our case study that mothers of twins had more children but only slightly reduced workforce participation, approximately 5% less time at work for an additional child.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOAS770 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

An exact adaptive test with superior design sensitivity in an observational study of treatments for ovarian cancer

A sensitivity analysis in an observational study determines the magnitude of bias from nonrandom treatment assignment that would need to be present to alter the qualitative conclusions of a na\"{\i}ve analysis that presumes all biases were removed by matching or by other analytic adjustments. The power of a sensitivity analysis and the design sensitivity anticipate the outcome of a sensitivity analysis under an assumed model for the generation of the data. It is known that the power of a sensitivity analysis is affected by the choice of test statistic, and, in particular, that a statistic with good Pitman efficiency in a randomized experiment, such as Wilcoxon's signed rank statistic, may have low power in a sensitivity analysis and low design sensitivity when compared to other statistics. For instance, for an additive treatment effect and errors that are Normal or logistic or $t$-distributed with 3 degrees of freedom, Brown's combined quantile average test has Pitman efficiency close to that of Wilcoxon's test but has higher power in a sensitivity analysis, while a version of Noether's test has poor Pitman efficiency in a randomized experiment but much higher design sensitivity so it is vastly more powerful than Wilcoxon's statistic in a sensitivity analysis if the sample size is sufficiently large.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOAS508 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Error-free milestones in error prone measurements

A predictor variable or dose that is measured with substantial error may possess an error-free milestone, such that it is known with negligible error whether the value of the variable is to the left or right of the milestone. Such a milestone provides a basis for estimating a linear relationship between the true but unknown value of the error-free predictor and an outcome, because the milestone creates a strong and valid instrumental variable. The inferences are nonparametric and robust, and in the simplest cases, they are exact and distribution free. We also consider multiple milestones for a single predictor and milestones for several predictors whose partial slopes are estimated simultaneously. Examples are drawn from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study, in which a BA degree acts as a milestone for sixteen years of education, and the binary indicator of military service acts as a milestone for years of service.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AOAS233 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Stronger instruments via integer programming in an observational study of late preterm birth outcomes

In an optimal nonbipartite match, a single population is divided into matched pairs to minimize a total distance within matched pairs. Nonbipartite matching has been used to strengthen instrumental variables in observational studies of treatment effects, essentially by forming pairs that are similar in terms of covariates but very different in the strength of encouragement to accept the treatment. Optimal nonbipartite matching is typically done using network optimization techniques that can be quick, running in polynomial time, but these techniques limit the tools available for matching. Instead, we use integer programming techniques, thereby obtaining a wealth of new tools not previously available for nonbipartite matching, including fine and near-fine balance for several nominal variables, forced near balance on means and optimal subsetting. We illustrate the methods in our on-going study of outcomes of late-preterm births in California, that is, births of 34 to 36 weeks of gestation. Would lengthening the time in the hospital for such births reduce the frequency of rapid readmissions? A straightforward comparison of babies who stay for a shorter or longer time would be severely biased, because the principal reason for a long stay is some serious health problem. We need an instrument, something inconsequential and haphazard that encourages a shorter or a longer stay in the hospital. It turns out that babies born at certain times of day tend to stay overnight once with a shorter length of stay, whereas babies born at other times of day tend to stay overnight twice with a longer length of stay, and there is nothing particularly special about a baby who is born at 11:00 pm.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/12-AOAS582 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Program on application of communications satellites to educational development: Design of a 12 channel FM microwave receiver

The design, fabrication, and performance of elements of a low cost FM microwave satellite ground station receiver is described. It is capable of accepting 12 contiguous color television equivalent bandwidth channels in the 11.72 to 12.2 GHz band. Each channel is 40 MHz wide and incorporates a 4 MHz guard band. The modulation format is wideband FM and the channels are frequency division multiplexed. Twelve independent CATV compatible baseband outputs are provided. The overall system specifications are first discussed, then consideration is given to the receiver subsystems and the signal branching network

Magnetism, structure, and charge correlation at a pressure-induced Mott-Hubbard insulator-metal transition

We use synchrotron x-ray diffraction and electrical transport under pressure to probe both the magnetism and the structure of single crystal NiS2 across its Mott-Hubbard transition. In the insulator, the low-temperature antiferromagnetic order results from superexchange among correlated electrons and couples to a (1/2, 1/2, 1/2) superlattice distortion. Applying pressure suppresses the insulating state, but enhances the magnetism as the superexchange increases with decreasing lattice constant. By comparing our results under pressure to previous studies of doped crystals we show that this dependence of the magnetism on the lattice constant is consistent for both band broadening and band filling. In the high pressure metallic phase the lattice symmetry is reduced from cubic to monoclinic, pointing to the primary influence of charge correlations at the transition. There exists a wide regime of phase separation that may be a general characteristic of correlated quantum matter.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figure

Inference with interference between units in an fMRI experiment of motor inhibition

An experimental unit is an opportunity to randomly apply or withhold a treatment. There is interference between units if the application of the treatment to one unit may also affect other units. In cognitive neuroscience, a common form of experiment presents a sequence of stimuli or requests for cognitive activity at random to each experimental subject and measures biological aspects of brain activity that follow these requests. Each subject is then many experimental units, and interference between units within an experimental subject is likely, in part because the stimuli follow one another quickly and in part because human subjects learn or become experienced or primed or bored as the experiment proceeds. We use a recent fMRI experiment concerned with the inhibition of motor activity to illustrate and further develop recently proposed methodology for inference in the presence of interference. A simulation evaluates the power of competing procedures.Comment: Published by Journal of the American Statistical Association at http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01621459.2012.655954 . R package cin (Causal Inference for Neuroscience) implementing the proposed method is freely available on CRAN at https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=ci