How to detect illegal waste shipments? The case of the international trade in polyethylene waste

The purpose of this research is to provide a methodological framework that is able to enhance our capability to detect illegal waste shipment with particular reference to waste plastics. Based on a very large cross-sectional dataset covering 187 countries over the period 2002-2012, our study aims to do this by using both the mirror statistics method and the network analysis. Specifically, by using mirror statistics, we identify the existence of a set of “suspicious” trade relations between pairs of countries. Then, we employ social network analysis in order to define the position of each country in this illegal trade structure, and to have a clear exposition of the connections between them. Our main findings reveal the central positions of the USA, Germany and the UK as sources and China and Malaysia as outlets of illegal shipments of waste plastics. Moreover, our methodology allows us to highlight the presence of other countries, which carry out an intermediary role within the global trade network, and to detect the changes in traditional illegal shipment routes. Therefore, this paper shows how social network analysis provides a useful instrument by means of which crime analysts and police detectives can develop effective strategies to interdict criminal activities

Did Neoliberalizing West African Forests Produce a New Niche for Ebola?

A recent study introduced a vaccine that controls Ebola Makona, the Zaire ebolavirus variant that has infected 28,000 people in West Africa. We propose that even such successful advances are insufficient for many emergent diseases. We review work hypothesizing that Makona, phenotypically similar to much smaller outbreaks, emerged out of shifts in land use brought about by neoliberal economics. The epidemiological consequences demand a new science that explicitly addresses the foundational processes underlying multispecies health, including the deep-time histories, cultural infrastructure, and global economic geographies driving disease emergence. The approach, for instance, reverses the standard public health practice of segregating emergency responses and the structural context from which outbreaks originate. In Ebola's case, regional neoliberalism may affix the stochastic "friction" of ecological relationships imposed by the forest across populations, which, when above a threshold, keeps the virus from lining up transmission above replacement. Export-led logging, mining, and intensive agriculture may depress such functional noise, permitting novel spillovers larger forces of infection. Mature outbreaks, meanwhile, can continue to circulate even in the face of efficient vaccines. More research on these integral explanations is required, but the narrow albeit welcome success of the vaccine may be used to limit support of such a program.SCOPUS: re.jinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

Did Ebola emerge in West Africa by a policy-driven phase change in agroecology? Ebola's social context

SCOPUS: no.jinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

Potential distributions of Bacillus anthracis and Bacillus cereus biovar anthracis causing anthrax in Africa

Background Bacillus cereus biovar anthracis (Bcbva) is an emergent bacterium closely related to Bacillus anthracis, the etiological agent of anthrax. The latter has a worldwide distribution and usually causes infectious disease in mammals associated with savanna ecosystems. Bcbva was identified in humid tropical forests of Côte d’Ivoire in 2001. Here, we characterize the potential geographic distributions of Bcbva in West Africa and B. anthracis in sub-Saharan Africa using an ecological niche modeling approach. Methodology/Principal findings Georeferenced occurrence data for B. anthracis and Bcbva were obtained from public data repositories and the scientific literature. Combinations of temperature, humidity, vegetation greenness, and soils values served as environmental variables in model calibrations. To predict the potential distribution of suitable environments for each pathogen across the study region, parameter values derived from the median of 10 replicates of the best-performing model for each pathogen were used. We found suitable environments predicted for B. anthracis across areas of confirmed and suspected anthrax activity in sub-Saharan Africa, including an east-west corridor from Ethiopia to Sierra Leone in the Sahel region and multiple areas in eastern, central, and southern Africa. The study area for Bcbva was restricted to West and Central Africa to reflect areas that have likely been accessible to Bcbva by dispersal. Model predicted values indicated potential suitable environments within humid forested environments. Background similarity tests in geographic space indicated statistical support to reject the null hypothesis of similarity when comparing environments associated with B. anthracis to those of Bcbva and when comparing humidity values and soils values individually. We failed to reject the null hypothesis of similarity when comparing environments associated with Bcbva to those of B. anthracis, suggesting that additional investigation is needed to provide a more robust characterization of the Bcbva niche. Conclusions/Significance This study represents the first time that the environmental and geographic distribution of Bcbva has been mapped. We document likely differences in ecological niche—and consequently in geographic distribution—between Bcbva and typical B. anthracis, and areas of possible co-occurrence between the two. We provide information crucial to guiding and improving monitoring efforts focused on these pathogens

“I rapporti commerciali tra Cina, Europa e Italia”

Pubblicazione in numero speciale della Rivista di Economia Italiana "La media e piccola impresa nello scenario della globalizzazione