How Is vaccine effectiveness scaled by the transmission dynamics of interacting pathogen strains with cross- protective immunity?

published_or_final_versio

Quark Mass Matrices with Four and Five Texture Zeroes, and the CKM Matrix, in terms of Mass Eigenvalues

Using the triangular matrix techniques of Kuo et al and Chiu et al for the four and five texture zero cases, with vanishing (11) elements for U and D matrices, it is shown, from the general eigenvalue equations and hierarchy conditions, that the quark mass matrices, and the CKM matrix can be expressed (except for the phases) entirely in terms of quark masses. The matrix structures are then quite simple and transparent. We confirm their results for the five texture zero case but find, upon closer examination of all the CKM elements which our results provide, that six of their nine patterns for the four texture zero case are not compatible with experiments. In total, only one five-texture zero and three four-texture zero patterns are allowed.Comment: 15 pages, 3 table

Broken Flavor 2 <-> 3 Symmetry and phenomenological approach for universal quark and lepton mass matrices

A phenomenological approach for the universal mass matrix model with a broken flavor 2 3 symmetry is explored by introducing the 2 3 antisymmetric parts of mass matrices for quarks and charged leptons . We present explicit texture components of the matrices, which are consistent with all the neutrino oscillation experiments and quark mixing data. The mass matrices have a common structure for quarks and leptons, while the large lepton mixings and the small quark mixings are derived with no fine tuning due to the difference of the phase factors. The model predicts a value, 2.4 x 10^{-3}, for the lepton mixing matrix element square |U_{13}|^2, and also predict =(0.89-1.4) x 10^{-4} eV for the averaged neutrino mass which appears in the neutrinoless double beta decay.Comment: 18 page

Epidemiology of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Japan during the first and second waves

Following the emergence and worldwide spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), each country has attempted to control the disease in different ways. The first patient with COVID-19 in Japan was diagnosed on 15 January 2020, and until 31 October 2020, the epidemic was characterized by two large waves. To prevent the first wave, the Japanese government imposed several control measures such as advising the public to avoid the 3Cs (closed spaces with poor ventilation, crowded places with many people nearby, and close-contact settings such as close-range conversations) and implementation of "cluster buster" strategies. After a major epidemic occurred in April 2020 (the first wave), Japan asked its citizens to limit their numbers of physical contacts and announced a non-legally binding state of emergency. Following a drop in the number of diagnosed cases, the state of emergency was gradually relaxed and then lifted in all prefectures of Japan by 25 May 2020. However, the development of another major epidemic (the second wave) could not be prevented because of continued chains of transmission, especially in urban locations. The present study aimed to descriptively examine propagation of the COVID-19 epidemic in Japan with respect to time, age, space, and interventions implemented during the first and second waves. Using publicly available data, we calculated the effective reproduction number and its associations with the timing of measures imposed to suppress transmission. Finally, we crudely calculated the proportions of severe and fatal COVID-19 cases during the first and second waves. Our analysis identified key characteristics of COVID-19, including density dependence and also the age dependence in the risk of severe outcomes. We also identified that the effective reproduction number during the state of emergency was maintained below the value of 1 during the first wave

A Dynamical Study of Galaxies in the Hickson Compact Groups

In order to investigate dynamical properties of spiral galaxies in the Hickson compact groups (HCGs), we present rotation curves of 30 galaxies in 20 HCGs. We found as follows. 1) There is not significant relation between dynamical peculiarity and morphological peculiarity in HCG spirals. 2) There is no significant relation between the dynamical properties and the frequency distribution of nuclear activities in HCG spirals. 3) There are no significant correlations between the dynamical properties of HCG spirals and any group properties (i.e., the size, the velocity dispersion, the galaxy number density, and the crossing time). 4) Asymmetric and peculiar rotation curves are more frequently seen in the HCG spirals than in field spirals and in cluster ones. However, this tendency is more obviously seen in late-type HCG spirals. These results suggest that the dynamical properties of HCG spirals do not strongly correlate with the morphology, the nuclear activity, and the group properties. Our results also suggest that more frequent galaxy collisions occur in the HCGs than in the field and in the clusters.Comment: 24 pages test (aasms4 LaTeX), 50 page tables (aasms4 LaTeX), and 16 Postscript figures, Accepted for The Astronomical Journa

SO(10) GUT and Quark-Lepton Mass Matrices

The phenomenological model that all quark and lepton mass matrices have the same zero texture, namely their (1,1), (1,3) and (3,1) components are zeros, is discussed in the context of SO(10) Grand Unified Theories (GUTs). The mass matrices of type I for quarks are consistent with the experimental data in the quark sector. For the lepton sector, consistent fitting to the data of neutrino oscillation experiments force us to use the mass matrix for the charged leptons which is slightly deviated from type I. Given quark masses and charged lepton masses, the model includes 19 free parameters, whereas the SO(10) GUTs gives 16 constrained equations. Changing the remaining three parameters freely, we can fit all the entries of the CKM quark mixing matrix and the MNS lepton mixing matrix, and three neutrino masses consistently with the present experimental data.Comment: 32pp, REV TeX, 12 EPS Figure

Dengue disease, basic reproduction number and control

Dengue is one of the major international public health concerns. Although progress is underway, developing a vaccine against the disease is challenging. Thus, the main approach to fight the disease is vector control. A model for the transmission of Dengue disease is presented. It consists of eight mutually exclusive compartments representing the human and vector dynamics. It also includes a control parameter (insecticide) in order to fight the mosquito. The model presents three possible equilibria: two disease-free equilibria (DFE) and another endemic equilibrium. It has been proved that a DFE is locally asymptotically stable, whenever a certain epidemiological threshold, known as the basic reproduction number, is less than one. We show that if we apply a minimum level of insecticide, it is possible to maintain the basic reproduction number below unity. A case study, using data of the outbreak that occurred in 2009 in Cape Verde, is presented.Comment: This is a preprint of a paper whose final and definitive form has appeared in International Journal of Computer Mathematics (2011), DOI: 10.1080/00207160.2011.55454

Monitoring RXTE Observations of Markarian 348: the origin of the column density variations

We analyze 37 RXTE observations of the type 2 Seyfert galaxy Mrk348 obtained during a period of 14 months. We confirm the spectral variability previous reported by Smith et al., in the sense that thecolumn density decreases by a factor of ~3 as the count rate increases. Column density variations could possibly originate either due to the random drift of clouds within the absorption screen, or due to photoionization processes. Our modeling of the observed variations implies that the first scenario is more likely. These clouds should lie in a distance of >2 light years from the source, having a diameter of a few light days and a density of >10^7 cm^(-3), hence probably residing outside the Broad Line Region.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, to appear in MNRA

A plague on five of your houses - statistical re-assessment of three pneumonic plague outbreaks that occurred in Suffolk, England, between 1906 and 1918

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Plague is a re-emerging disease and its pneumonic form is a high priority bio-terrorist threat. Epidemiologists have previously analysed historical outbreaks of pneumonic plague to better understand the dynamics of infection, transmission and control. This study examines 3 relatively unknown outbreaks of pneumonic plague that occurred in Suffolk, England, during the first 2 decades of the twentieth century.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistical test is used to compare the symptomatic period and the length of time between successive cases (i.e. the serial interval) with previously reported values. Consideration is also given to the case fatality ratio, the average number of secondary cases resulting from each primary case in the observed minor outbreaks (termed <it>R</it>_{<it>minor</it>}), and the proportion of individuals living within an affected household that succumb to pneumonic plague via the index case (i.e. the household secondary attack rate (SAR)).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>2 of the 14 cases survived giving a case fatality ratio of 86% (95% confidence interval (CI) = {57%, 98%}). For the 12 fatal cases, the average symptomatic period was 3.3 days (standard deviation (SD) = 1.2 days) and, for the 11 non index cases, the average serial interval was 5.8 days (SD = 2.0 days). <it>R</it>_{<it>minor </it>}was calculated to be 0.9 (SD = 1.0) and, in 2 households, the SAR was approximately 14% (95% CI = {0%, 58%}) and 20% (95% CI = {1%, 72%}), respectively.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The symptomatic period was approximately 1 day longer on average than in an earlier study but the serial interval was in close agreement with 2 previously reported values. 2 of the 3 outbreaks ended without explicit public health interventions; however, non-professional caregivers were particularly vulnerable - an important public health consideration for any future outbreak of pneumonic plague.</p