Automatic Forecast of Intensive Care Unit Admissions: The Experience During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy

The experience of the COVID-19 pandemic showed the importance of timely monitoring of admissions to the ICU admissions. The ability to promptly forecast the epidemic impact on the occupancy of beds in the ICU is a key issue for adequate management of the health care system. Despite this, most of the literature on predictive COVID-19 models in Italy has focused on predicting the number of infections, leaving trends in ordinary hospitalizations and ICU occupancies in the background. This work aims to present an ETS approach (Exponential Smoothing Time Series) time series forecasting tool for admissions to the ICU admissions based on ETS models. The results of the forecasting model are presented for the regions most affected by the epidemic, such as Veneto, Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna, and Piedmont. The mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) between observed and predicted admissions to the ICU admissions remain lower than 11% for all considered geographical areas. In this epidemiological context, the proposed ETS forecasting model could be suitable to monitor, in a timely manner, the impact of COVID-19 disease on the health care system, not only during the early stages of the pandemic but also during the vaccination campaign, to quickly adapt possible preventive interventions

Effect of awake prone position on diaphragmatic thickening fraction in patients assisted by noninvasive ventilation for hypoxemic acute respiratory failure related to novel coronavirus disease

Background: Awake prone position is an emerging rescue therapy applied in patients undergoing noninvasive ventilation (NIV) for acute hypoxemic respiratory failure (ARF) related to novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Although applied to stabilize respiratory status, in awake patients, the application of prone position may reduce comfort with a consequent increase in the workload imposed on respiratory muscles. Thus, we primarily ascertained the effect of awake prone position on diaphragmatic thickening fraction, assessed through ultrasound, in COVID-19 patients undergoing NIV. Methods: We enrolled all COVID-19 adult critically ill patients, admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) for hypoxemic ARF and undergoing NIV, deserving of awake prone positioning as a rescue therapy. Exclusion criteria were pregnancy and any contraindication to awake prone position and NIV. On ICU admission, after NIV onset, in supine position, and at 1\ua0h following awake prone position application, diaphragmatic thickening fraction was obtained on the right side. Across all the study phases, NIV was maintained with the same setting present at study entry. Vital signs were monitored throughout the entire study period. Comfort was assessed through numerical rating scale (0 the worst comfort and 10 the highest comfort level). Data were presented in median and 25th\u201375th percentile range. Results: From February to May 2021, 20 patients were enrolled and finally analyzed. Despite peripheral oxygen saturation improvement [96 (94\u201397)% supine vs 98 (96\u201399)% prone, p = 0.008], turning to prone position induced a worsening in comfort score from 7.0 (6.0\u20138.0) to 6.0 (5.0\u20137.0) (p = 0.012) and an increase in diaphragmatic thickening fraction from 33.3 (25.7\u201340.5)% to 41.5 (29.8\u201350.0)% (p = 0.025). Conclusions: In our COVID-19 patients assisted by NIV in ICU, the application of awake prone position improved the oxygenation at the expense of a greater diaphragmatic thickening fraction compared to supine position. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT04904731. Registered on 05/25/2021, retrospectively registered. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04904731

Surviving Sepsis Campaign: International Guidelines for Management of Sepsis and Septic Shock: 2016.

OBJECTIVE: To provide an update to "Surviving Sepsis Campaign Guidelines for Management of Sepsis and Septic Shock: 2012." DESIGN: A consensus committee of 55 international experts representing 25 international organizations was convened. Nominal groups were assembled at key international meetings (for those committee members attending the conference). A formal conflict-of-interest (COI) policy was developed at the onset of the process and enforced throughout. A stand-alone meeting was held for all panel members in December 2015. Teleconferences and electronic-based discussion among subgroups and among the entire committee served as an integral part of the development. METHODS: The panel consisted of five sections: hemodynamics, infection, adjunctive therapies, metabolic, and ventilation. Population, intervention, comparison, and outcomes (PICO) questions were reviewed and updated as needed, and evidence profiles were generated. Each subgroup generated a list of questions, searched for best available evidence, and then followed the principles of the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) system to assess the quality of evidence from high to very low, and to formulate recommendations as strong or weak, or best practice statement when applicable. RESULTS: The Surviving Sepsis Guideline panel provided 93 statements on early management and resuscitation of patients with sepsis or septic shock. Overall, 32 were strong recommendations, 39 were weak recommendations, and 18 were best-practice statements. No recommendation was provided for four questions. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial agreement exists among a large cohort of international experts regarding many strong recommendations for the best care of patients with sepsis. Although a significant number of aspects of care have relatively weak support, evidence-based recommendations regarding the acute management of sepsis and septic shock are the foundation of improved outcomes for these critically ill patients with high mortality