Influenza Pandemic Waves under Various Mitigation Strategies with 2009 H1N1 as a Case Study

A significant feature of influenza pandemics is multiple waves of morbidity and mortality over a few months or years. The size of these successive waves depends on intervention strategies including antivirals and vaccination, as well as the effects of immunity gained from previous infection. However, the global vaccine manufacturing capacity is limited. Also, antiviral stockpiles are costly and thus, are limited to very few countries. The combined effect of antivirals and vaccination in successive waves of a pandemic has not been quantified. The effect of acquired immunity from vaccination and previous infection has also not been characterized. In times of a pandemic threat countries must consider the effects of a limited vaccine, limited antiviral use and the effects of prior immunity so as to adopt a pandemic strategy that will best aid the population. We developed a mathematical model describing the first and second waves of an influenza pandemic including drug therapy, vaccination and acquired immunity. The first wave model includes the use of antiviral drugs under different treatment profiles. In the second wave model the effects of antivirals, vaccination and immunity gained from the first wave are considered. The models are used to characterize the severity of infection in a population under different drug therapy and vaccination strategies, as well as school closure, so that public health policies regarding future influenza pandemics are better informed

Post-exposure prophylaxis during pandemic outbreaks

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>With the rise of the second pandemic wave of the novel influenza A (H1N1) virus in the current season in the Northern Hemisphere, pandemic plans are being carefully re-evaluated, particularly for the strategic use of antiviral drugs. The recent emergence of oseltamivir-resistant in treated H1N1 patients has raised concerns about the prudent use of neuraminidase inhibitors for both treatment of ill individuals and post-exposure prophylaxis of close contacts.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We extended an established population dynamical model of pandemic influenza with treatment to include post-exposure prophylaxis of close contacts. Using parameter estimates published in the literature, we simulated the model to evaluate the combined effect of treatment and prophylaxis in minimizing morbidity and mortality of pandemic infections in the context of transmissible drug resistance.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We demonstrated that, when transmissible resistant strains are present, post-exposure prophylaxis can promote the spread of resistance, especially when combined with aggressive treatment. For a given treatment level, there is an optimal coverage of prophylaxis that minimizes the total number of infections (final size) and this coverage decreases as a higher proportion of infected individuals are treated. We found that, when treatment is maintained at intermediate levels, limited post-exposure prophylaxis provides an optimal strategy for reducing the final size of the pandemic while minimizing the total number of deaths. We tested our results by performing a sensitivity analysis over a range of key model parameters and observed that the incidence of infection depends strongly on the transmission fitness of resistant strains.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our findings suggest that, in the presence of transmissible drug resistance, strategies that prioritize the treatment of only ill individuals, rather than the prophylaxis of those suspected of being exposed, are most effective in reducing the morbidity and mortality of the pandemic. The impact of post-exposure prophylaxis depends critically on the treatment level and the transmissibility of resistant strains and, therefore, enhanced surveillance and clinical monitoring for resistant mutants constitutes a key component of any comprehensive plan for antiviral drug use during an influenza pandemic.</p

MOLECULAR STRUCTURE OF THE EPIDERMAL EXTRACELLULAR SPACES

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/65966/1/j.1365-4362.1979.tb01946.x.pd

Inhibition of Nox2 Oxidase Activity Ameliorates Influenza A Virus-Induced Lung Inflammation

Influenza A virus pandemics and emerging anti-viral resistance highlight the urgent need for novel generic pharmacological strategies that reduce both viral replication and lung inflammation. We investigated whether the primary enzymatic source of inflammatory cell ROS (reactive oxygen species), Nox2-containing NADPH oxidase, is a novel pharmacological target against the lung inflammation caused by influenza A viruses. Male WT (C57BL/6) and Nox2−/y mice were infected intranasally with low pathogenicity (X-31, H3N2) or higher pathogenicity (PR8, H1N1) influenza A virus. Viral titer, airways inflammation, superoxide and peroxynitrite production, lung histopathology, pro-inflammatory (MCP-1) and antiviral (IL-1β) cytokines/chemokines, CD8+ T cell effector function and alveolar epithelial cell apoptosis were assessed. Infection of Nox2−/y mice with X-31 virus resulted in a significant reduction in viral titers, BALF macrophages, peri-bronchial inflammation, BALF inflammatory cell superoxide and lung tissue peroxynitrite production, MCP-1 levels and alveolar epithelial cell apoptosis when compared to WT control mice. Lung levels of IL-1β were ∼3-fold higher in Nox2−/y mice. The numbers of influenza-specific CD8+DbNP366+ and DbPA224+ T cells in the BALF and spleen were comparable in WT and Nox2−/y mice. In vivo administration of the Nox2 inhibitor apocynin significantly suppressed viral titer, airways inflammation and inflammatory cell superoxide production following infection with X-31 or PR8. In conclusion, these findings indicate that Nox2 inhibitors have therapeutic potential for control of lung inflammation and damage in an influenza strain-independent manner

Population-Wide Emergence of Antiviral Resistance during Pandemic Influenza

Background: The emergence of neuraminidase inhibitor resistance has raised concerns about the prudent use of antiviral drugs in response to the next influenza pandemic. While resistant strains may initially emerge with compromised viral fitness, mutations that largely compensate for this impaired fitness can arise. Understanding the extent to which these mutations affect the spread of disease in the population can have important implications for developing pandemic plans. Methodology/Principal Findings: By employing a deterministic mathematical model, we investigate possible scenarios for the emergence of population-wide resistance in the presence of antiviral drugs. The results show that if the treatment level (the fraction of clinical infections which receives treatment) is maintained constant during the course of the outbreak, there is an optimal level that minimizes the final size of the pandemic. However, aggressive treatment above the optimal level can substantially promote the spread of highly transmissible resistant mutants and increase the total number of infections. We demonstrate that resistant outbreaks can occur more readily when the spread of disease is further delayed by applying other curtailing measures, even if treatment levels are kept modest. However, by changing treatment levels over the course of the pandemic, it is possible to reduce the final size of the pandemic below the minimum achieved at the optimal constant level. This reduction can occur with low treatment levels during the early stages of the pandemic, followed by a sharp increase in drug-use before the virus becomes widely spread. Conclusions/Significance: Our findings suggest that an adaptive antiviral strategy with conservative initial treatment levels, followed by a timely increase in the scale of drug-use, can minimize the final size of a pandemic while preventing large outbreaks of resistant infections

Can Antiviral Drugs Contain Pandemic Influenza Transmission?

Antiviral drugs dispensed during the 2009 influenza pandemic generally failed to contain transmission. This poses the question of whether preparedness for a future pandemic should include plans to use antiviral drugs to mitigate transmission

Risk Factors of Household Transmission of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 among Patients Treated with Antivirals: A Prospective Study at a Primary Clinic in Japan

Background: Household transmission of influenza can affect the daily lives of patients and their families and be a trigger for community transmission, thus it is necessary to take precautions to prevent household transmission. We aimed to determine the risks of household transmission of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza virus from an index patient who visited a primary clinic and was treated with antiviral drugs. Methods: We followed up all the patients who were diagnosed with influenza A by rapid diagnostic test with a questionnaire or interview from July 2009 to April 2010. Secondary cases were defined as patients visiting the clinic or other clinics and being positive for influenza A by rapid diagnostic test within 7 days of onset of an index patient. Logistic regression analysis was used to explore the association between household transmission and the studied variables. Results: We recruited 591 index patients and 1629 household contacts. The crude secondary attack rate was 7.3 % [95% confidence interval (CI): 6.1–8.7]. Age of index patients (0–6 years old: odds ratio 2.56; 95 % CI: 1.31–4.01; 7–12 years old: 2.44, 1.31–3.72; 30–39 years old 3.88; 2.09–5.21; 40 years old or more 2.76; 1.17–4.53) and number of household members with five or more (3.09, 2.11–4.07), medication started 48 hours from the onset of fever (2.38, 1.17–3.87) were significantly associated with household transmission. Conclusions: Household transmission was associated with index patients aged #12 years old and adults 30 years wit

Epidemiology of influenza-associated hospitalization in adults, Toronto, 2007/8

The purpose of this investigation was to identify when diagnostic testing and empirical antiviral therapy should be considered for adult patients requiring hospitalization during influenza seasons. During the 2007/8 influenza season, six acute care hospitals in the Greater Toronto Area participated in active surveillance for laboratory-confirmed influenza requiring hospitalization. Nasopharyngeal (NP) swabs were obtained from patients presenting with acute respiratory or cardiac illness, or with febrile illness without clear non-respiratory etiology. Predictors of influenza were analyzed by multivariable logistic regression analysis and likelihoods of influenza infection in various patient groups were calculated. Two hundred and eighty of 3,917 patients were found to have influenza. Thirty-five percent of patients with influenza presented with a triage temperature ≥38.0°C, 80% had respiratory symptoms in the emergency department, and 76% were ≥65 years old. Multivariable analysis revealed a triage temperature ≥38.0°C (odds ratio [OR] 3.1; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.3–4.1), the presence of respiratory symptoms (OR 1.7; 95% CI 1.2–2.4), admission diagnosis of respiratory infection (OR 1.8; 95% CI 1.3–2.4), admission diagnosis of exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)/asthma or respiratory failure (OR 2.3; 95% CI 1.6–3.4), and admission in peak influenza weeks (OR 4.2; 95% CI 3.1–5.7) as independent predictors of influenza. The likelihood of influenza exceeded 15% in patients with respiratory infection or exacerbation of COPD/asthma if the triage temperature was ≥38.0°C or if they were admitted in the peak weeks during the influenza season. During influenza season, diagnostic testing and empiric antiviral therapy should be considered in patients requiring hospitalization if respiratory infection or exacerbation of COPD/asthma are suspected and if either the triage temperature is ≥38.0°C or admission is during the weeks of peak influenza activity

Identification of a PA-Binding Peptide with Inhibitory Activity against Influenza A and B Virus Replication

There is an urgent need for new drugs against influenza type A and B viruses due to incomplete protection by vaccines and the emergence of resistance to current antivirals. The influenza virus polymerase complex, consisting of the PB1, PB2 and PA subunits, represents a promising target for the development of new drugs. We have previously demonstrated the feasibility of targeting the protein-protein interaction domain between the PB1 and PA subunits of the polymerase complex of influenza A virus using a small peptide derived from the PA-binding domain of PB1. However, this influenza A virus-derived peptide did not affect influenza B virus polymerase activity. Here we report that the PA-binding domain of the polymerase subunit PB1 of influenza A and B viruses is highly conserved and that mutual amino acid exchange shows that they cannot be functionally exchanged with each other. Based on phylogenetic analysis and a novel biochemical ELISA-based screening approach, we were able to identify an influenza A-derived peptide with a single influenza B-specific amino acid substitution which efficiently binds to PA of both virus types. This dual-binding peptide blocked the viral polymerase activity and growth of both virus types. Our findings provide proof of principle that protein-protein interaction inhibitors can be generated against influenza A and B viruses. Furthermore, this dual-binding peptide, combined with our novel screening method, is a promising platform to identify new antiviral lead compounds