Does the yield spread predict real economic activity? : a multicountry analysis

This article evaluates the ability of the yield spread to forecast real economic activity in 11 industrial countries. The first section of this article defines the yield spread and explains why the spread may be a useful predictor of real economic activity. The second section describes the data and criteria used to evaluate the predictive power of the yield spread. The third section examines whether yield spreads have reliably forecast real economic activity in the 11 countries, using several measures of real economic activity and alternative forecast horizons. The empirical results indicate the yield spread is a statistically and economically significant predictor of real economic activity in several industrial countries besides the United States. In addition, the yield spread forecasting model generally outperforms two alternative forecasting models in predicting future real GDP growth.Economic conditions - United States ; Interest rates ; Forecasting ; Gross domestic product

Making a Business Case for Reducing Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Health Care: Key Issues and Observations

Offers lessons from RWJF's Finding Answers program around issues involved in laying out financial reasons for providers, caregivers, and others to adopt ongoing, effective interventions to improve quality of care for minority patients

Negotiating equity in UK universities.

Description of the project The research involved six case studies of higher education institutions across England, Scotland and Wales. The project aims were:to explore staff experiences of equity issues and institutional equity policies. Participants were drawn from different occupational backgrounds and a variety of socio-cultural groups paying attention also to gender, sexual orientation, ‘race’/ethnicity, disability, age and religio to conduct a critical discourse analysis of equity policies in the six institution to gather the views of senior manager-academics and administrators on their institutional equality policies, and how these relate to national policie to identify challenges, inadequacies, examples of good practice, and constraints/incentives in relation to equity policies at institutional and sector level

Climate Change and Professional Responsibility: A Declaration of Helsinki for Engineers

In this paper, we argue that the professional engineering institutions ought to develop a Declaration of Climate Action. Climate change is a serious global problem, and the majority of greenhouse gas emissions come from industries that are enabled by engineers and represented by the engineering professional institutions. If the professional institutions take seriously the claim that a profession should be self-regulating, with codes of ethics that go beyond mere obedience to the law, and if they take their own ethical codes seriously, recognising their responsibility to the public and to future generations (and also recognising a duty of “responsible leadership”), the professional institutions ought to develop a declaration for engineers, addressing climate change. Our argument here is largely inspired by the history of the Declaration of Helsinki. The Declaration of Helsinki was created by the medical profession for the profession, and it held physicians to a higher standard of ethical conduct than was found in the legal framework of individual countries. Although it was not originally a legal document, the influence of the Declaration can be seen in the fact that it is now enshrined in law in a number of different countries. Thus, we argue that the engineering profession could, and should, play a significant role in the abatement of climate change by making changes within the profession. If the engineering profession sets strict standards for professional engineers, with sanctions for those who refuse to comply, this could have a significant impact in relation to our efforts to develop a coordinated response to climate change

Present-day stress orientations and tectonic provinces of the NW Borneo collisional margin

Extent: 15p.Borehole failure observed on image and dipmeter logs from 55 petroleum wells across the NW Borneo collisional margin were used to determine maximum horizontal stress (σH) orientations; combined with seismic and outcrop data, they define seven tectonic provinces. The Baram Delta–Deepwater Fold-Thrust Belt exhibits three tectonic provinces: its inner shelf inverted province (σH is NW-SE, margin-normal), its outer shelf extension province (σH is NE-SW, margin-parallel), and its slope to basin floor compression province (σH is NW-SE, margin-normal). In the inverted province, σH reflects inversion of deltaic normal faults. The σH orientations in the extension and compression provinces reflect deltaic gravitational tectonics. The shale and minibasin provinces have been recognized in offshore Sabah. In the shale province, σH is N010°E, which aligns around the boundary of a massif of mobile shale. Currently, no data are available to determine σH in the minibasin province. In the Balingian province, σH is ESE-WNW, reflecting ESE absolute Sunda plate motions due to the absence of a thick detachment seen elsewhere in NW Borneo. The Central Luconia province demonstrates poorly constrained and variable σH orientations. These seven provinces result from the heterogeneous structural and stratigraphic development of the NW Borneo margin and formed due to complex collisional tectonics and the varied distribution and thicknesses of stratigraphic packages.Rosalind C. King, Mark R. P. Tingay, Richard R. Hillis, Christopher K. Morley, and James Clar

Water, High-Altitude Condensates, and Possible Methane Depletion in the Atmosphere of the Warm Super-Neptune WASP-107b

The super-Neptune exoplanet WASP-107b is an exciting target for atmosphere characterization. It has an unusually large atmospheric scale height and a small, bright host star, raising the possibility of precise constraints on its current nature and formation history. We report the first atmospheric study of WASP-107b, a Hubble Space Telescope measurement of its near-infrared transmission spectrum. We determined the planet's composition with two techniques: atmospheric retrieval based on the transmission spectrum and interior structure modeling based on the observed mass and radius. The interior structure models set a $3\,\sigma$ upper limit on the atmospheric metallicity of $30\times$ solar. The transmission spectrum shows strong evidence for water absorption ($6.5\,\sigma$ confidence), and the retrieved water abundance is consistent with expectations for a solar abundance pattern. The inferred carbon-to-oxygen ratio is subsolar at $2.7\,\sigma$ confidence, which we attribute to possible methane depletion in the atmosphere. The spectral features are smaller than predicted for a cloud-free composition, crossing less than one scale height. A thick condensate layer at high altitudes (0.1 - 3 mbar) is needed to match the observations. We find that physically motivated cloud models with moderate sedimentation efficiency ($f_\mathrm{sed} = 0.3$) or hazes with a particle size of 0.3 $\mu$m reproduce the observed spectral feature amplitude. Taken together, these findings serve as an illustration of the diversity and complexity of exoplanet atmospheres. The community can look forward to more such results with the high precision and wide spectral coverage afforded by future observing facilities.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures; accepted to ApJ

The Histone 3'-Terminal Stem-Loop-Binding Protein Enhances Translation through a Functional and Physical Interaction with Eukaryotic Initiation Factor 4G (eIF4G) and eIF3

Metazoan cell cycle-regulated histone mRNAs are unique cellular mRNAs in that they terminate in a highly conserved stem-loop structure instead of a poly(A) tail. Not only is the stem-loop structure necessary for 3'-end formation but it regulates the stability and translational efficiency of histone mRNAs. The histone stem-loop structure is recognized by the stem-loop-binding protein (SLBP), which is required for the regulation of mRNA processing and turnover. In this study, we show that SLBP is required for the translation of mRNAs containing the histone stem-loop structure. Moreover, we show that the translation of mRNAs ending in the histone stem-loop is stimulated in Saccharomyces cerevisiae cells expressing mammalian SLBP. The translational function of SLBP genetically required eukaryotic initiation factor 4E (eIF4E), eIF4G, and eIF3, and expressed SLBP coisolated with S. cerevisiae initiation factor complexes that bound the 5' cap in a manner dependent on eIF4G and eIF3. Furthermore, eIF4G coimmunoprecipitated with endogenous SLBP in mammalian cell extracts and recombinant SLBP and eIF4G coisolated. These data indicate that SLBP stimulates the translation of histone mRNAs through a functional interaction with both the mRNA stem-loop and the 5' cap that is mediated by eIF4G and eIF3