Mathematical modelling of lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes in India: Required duration of mass drug administration and post-treatment level of infection indicators

Background: India has made great progress towards the elimination of lymphatic filariasis. By 2015, most endemic districts had completed at least five annual rounds of mass drug administration (MDA). The next challenge is to determine when MDA can be stopped. We performed a simulation study with the individual-based model LYMFASIM to help clarify this. Methods: We used a model-variant for Indian settings. We considered different hypotheses on detectability of antigenaemia (Ag) in relation to underlying adult worm burden, choosing the most likely hypothesis by comparing the model predicted association between community-level microfilaraemia (Mf) and antigenaemia (Ag) prevalence levels to observed data (collated from literature). Next, we estimated how long MDA must be continued in order to achieve elimination in different transmission settings and what Mf and Ag prevalence may still remain 1 year after the last required MDA round. The robustness of key-outcomes was assessed in a sensitivity analysis. Results: Our model matched observed data qualitatively well when we assumed an Ag detection rate of 50 % for single worm infections, which increases with the number of adult worms (modelled by relating detection to the presence of female worms). The required duration of annual MDA increased with higher baseline endemicity and lower coverage (varying between 2 and 12 rounds), while the remaining residual infection 1 year after the last required treatment declined with transmission intensity. For low and high transmission settings, the median residual infection levels were 1.0 % and 0.4 % (Mf prevalence in the 5+ population), and 3.5 % and 2.0 % (Ag prevalence in 6-7 year-old children). Conclusion: To achieve elimination in high transmission settings, MDA must be continued longer and infection levels must be reduced to lower levels than in low-endemic communities. Although our simulations were for Indian settings, qualitatively similar patterns are also expected in other areas. This should be taken into account in decision algorithms to define whether MDA can be interrupted. Transmission assessment surveys should ideally be targeted to communities with the highest pre-control transmission levels, to minimize the risk of programme failure

A test-and-not-treat strategy for onchocerciasis in loa loa-endemic areas

BACKGROUND Implementation of an ivermectin-based community treatment strategy for the elimination of onchocerciasis or lymphatic filariasis has been delayed in Central Africa because of the occurrence of serious adverse events, including death, in persons with high levels of circulating Loa loa microfilariae. The LoaScope, a field-friendly diagnostic tool to quantify L. loa microfilariae in peripheral blood, enables rapid, point-of-care identification of persons at risk for serious adverse events. METHODS A test-and-not-treat strategy was used in the approach to ivermectin treatment in the Okola health district in Cameroon, where the distribution of ivermectin was halted in 1999 after the occurrence of fatal events related to L. loa infection. The LoaScope was used to identify persons with an L. loa microfilarial density greater than 20,000 microfilariae per milliliter of blood, who were considered to be at risk for serious adverse events, and exclude them from ivermectin distribution. Active surveillance for posttreatment adverse events was performed daily for 6 days. RESULTS From August through October 2015, a total of 16,259 of 22,842 persons 5 years of age or older (71.2% of the target population) were tested for L. loa microfilaremia. Among the participants who underwent testing, a total of 15,522 (95.5%) received ivermectin, 340 (2.1%) were excluded from ivermectin distribution because of an L. loa microfilarial density above the risk threshold, and 397 (2.4%) were excluded because of pregnancy or illness. No serious adverse events were observed. Nonserious adverse events were recorded in 934 participants, most of whom (67.5%) had no detectable L. loa microfilariae. CONCLUSIONS The LoaScope-based test-and-not-treat strategy enabled the reimplementation of community-wide ivermectin distribution in a heretofore "off limits" health district in Cameroon and is a potentially practical approach to larger-scale ivermectin treatment for lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis in areas where L. loa infection is endemic