Arrival Time Statistics in Global Disease Spread

Metapopulation models describing cities with different populations coupled by the travel of individuals are of great importance in the understanding of disease spread on a large scale. An important example is the Rvachev-Longini model [{\it Math. Biosci.} {\bf 75}, 3-22 (1985)] which is widely used in computational epidemiology. Few analytical results are however available and in particular little is known about paths followed by epidemics and disease arrival times. We study the arrival time of a disease in a city as a function of the starting seed of the epidemics. We propose an analytical Ansatz, test it in the case of a spreading on the world wide air transportation network, and show that it predicts accurately the arrival order of a disease in world-wide cities

Singular shell embedded into a cosmological model

We generalize Israel's formalism to cover singular shells embedded in a non-vacuum Universe. That is, we deduce the relativistic equation of motion for a thin shell embedded in a Schwarzschild/Friedmann-Lemaitre-Robertson-Walker spacetime. Also, we review the embedding of a Schwarzschild mass into a cosmological model using "curvature" coordinates and give solutions with (Sch/FLRW) and without the embedded mass (FLRW).Comment: 25 pages, 2 figure

Classical Electron Model with Negative Energy Density in Einstein-Cartan Theory of Gravitation

Experimental result regarding the maximum limit of the radius of the electron \sim 10^{-16} cm and a few of the theoretical works suggest that the gravitational mass which is a priori a positive quantity in Newtonian mechanics may become negative in general theory of relativity. It is argued that such a negative gravitational mass and hence negative energy density also can be obtained with a better physical interpretation in the framework of Einstein-Cartan theory.Comment: 12 Latex pages, added refs and conclusion

Axially symmetric Einstein-Straus models

The existence of static and axially symmetric regions in a Friedman-Lemaitre cosmology is investigated under the only assumption that the cosmic time and the static time match properly on the boundary hypersurface. It turns out that the most general form for the static region is a two-sphere with arbitrarily changing radius which moves along the axis of symmetry in a determined way. The geometry of the interior region is completely determined in terms of background objects. When any of the most widely used energy-momentum contents for the interior region is imposed, both the interior geometry and the shape of the static region must become exactly spherically symmetric. This shows that the Einstein-Straus model, which is the generally accepted answer for the null influence of the cosmic expansion on the local physics, is not a robust model and it is rather an exceptional and isolated situation. Hence, its suitability for solving the interplay between cosmic expansion and local physics is doubtful and more adequate models should be investigated.Comment: Latex, no figure

Comments on photonic shells

We investigate in detail the special case of an infinitely thin static cylindrical shell composed of counter-rotating photons on circular geodetical paths separating two distinct parts of Minkowski spacetimes--one inside and the other outside the shell--and compare it to a static disk shell formed by null particles counter-rotating on circular geodesics within the shell located between two sections of flat spacetime. One might ask whether the two cases are not, in fact, merely one

Exact Charged 2-Body Motion and the Static Balance Condition in Lineal Gravity

We find an exact solution to the charged 2-body problem in $(1+1)$ dimensional lineal gravity which provides the first example of a relativistic system that generalizes the Majumdar-Papapetrou condition for static balance.Comment: latex,7 pages, 2 figure

Gravitational Lensing by Wormholes

Gravitational lensing by traversable Lorentzian wormholes is a ew possibility which is analyzed here in the strong field limit. Wormhole solutions are considered in the Einstein minimally coupled theory and in the brane world model. The observables in both the theories show significant differences from those arising in the Schwarzschild black hole lensing. As a corollary, it follows that wormholes with zero Keplerian mass exhibit lensing properties which are qualitatively (though not quantitatively) the same as those of a Schwarzschild black hole. Some special features of the considered solutions are pointed out.Comment: 20 pages, no figure

Quantum singularity of Levi-Civita spacetimes

Quantum singularities in general relativistic spacetimes are determined by the behavior of quantum test particles. A static spacetime is quantum mechanically singular if the spatial portion of the wave operator is not essentially self-adjoint. Here Weyl's limit point-limit circle criterion is used to determine whether a wave operator is essentially self-adjoint. This test is then applied to scalar wave packets in Levi-Civita spacetimes to help elucidate the physical properties of the spacetimes in terms of their metric parameters

Persistence, extinction and spatio-temporal synchronization of SIRS cellular automata models

Spatially explicit models have been widely used in today's mathematical ecology and epidemiology to study persistence and extinction of populations as well as their spatial patterns. Here we extend the earlier work--static dispersal between neighbouring individuals to mobility of individuals as well as multi-patches environment. As is commonly found, the basic reproductive ratio is maximized for the evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) on diseases' persistence in mean-field theory. This has important implications, as it implies that for a wide range of parameters that infection rate will tend maximum. This is opposite with present results obtained in spatial explicit models that infection rate is limited by upper bound. We observe the emergence of trade-offs of extinction and persistence on the parameters of the infection period and infection rate and show the extinction time having a linear relationship with respect to system size. We further find that the higher mobility can pronouncedly promote the persistence of spread of epidemics, i.e., the phase transition occurs from extinction domain to persistence domain, and the spirals' wavelength increases as the mobility increasing and ultimately, it will saturate at a certain value. Furthermore, for multi-patches case, we find that the lower coupling strength leads to anti-phase oscillation of infected fraction, while higher coupling strength corresponds to in-phase oscillation.Comment: 12page

Effects of time window size and placement on the structure of aggregated networks

Complex networks are often constructed by aggregating empirical data over time, such that a link represents the existence of interactions between the endpoint nodes and the link weight represents the intensity of such interactions within the aggregation time window. The resulting networks are then often considered static. More often than not, the aggregation time window is dictated by the availability of data, and the effects of its length on the resulting networks are rarely considered. Here, we address this question by studying the structural features of networks emerging from aggregating empirical data over different time intervals, focussing on networks derived from time-stamped, anonymized mobile telephone call records. Our results show that short aggregation intervals yield networks where strong links associated with dense clusters dominate; the seeds of such clusters or communities become already visible for intervals of around one week. The degree and weight distributions are seen to become stationary around a few days and a few weeks, respectively. An aggregation interval of around 30 days results in the stablest similar networks when consecutive windows are compared. For longer intervals, the effects of weak or random links become increasingly stronger, and the average degree of the network keeps growing even for intervals up to 180 days. The placement of the time window is also seen to affect the outcome: for short windows, different behavioural patterns play a role during weekends and weekdays, and for longer windows it is seen that networks aggregated during holiday periods are significantly different.Comment: 19 pages, 11 figure