Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates

Does government debt affect interest rates? Despite a substantial body of empirical analysis, the answer based on the past two decades of research is mixed. While many studies suggest, at most, a single-digit rise in the interest rate when government debt increases by one percent of GDP, others estimate either much larger effects or find no effect. Comparing results across studies is complicated by differences in economic models, definitions of econometric approaches, and sources of data. Using a standard set of data and a simple analytical framework, we reconsider and add to empirical evidence on the effect of federal government debt and interest rates. We begin by deriving analytically the effect of government debt on the real interest rate and find that an increase in government debt equivalent to one percent of GDP would be predicted to increase the real interest rate by about two to three basis points. While some existing studies estimate effects in this range, others find larger effects. In almost all cases, these larger estimates come from specifications relating federal deficits (as opposed to debt) and the level of interest rates or from specifications not controlling adequately for macroeconomic influences on interest rates that might be correlated with deficits. We present our own empirical analysis in two parts. First, we examine a variety of conventional reduced-form specifications linking interest rates and government debt and other variables. In particular, we provide estimates for three types of specifications to permit comparisons among different approaches taken in previous research; we estimate the effect of: an expected, or projected, measure of federal government debt on a forward-looking measure of the real interest rate; an expected, or projected, measure of federal government debt on a current measure of the real interest rate; and a current measure of federal government debt on a current measure of the real interest rate. Most of the statistically significant estimated effects are consistent with the prediction of the simple analytical calculation. Second, we provide evidence using vector autoregression analysis. In general, these results are similar to those found in our reduced-form econometric analysis and consistent with the analytical calculations. Taken together, the bulk of our empirical results suggest that an increase in federal government debt equivalent to one percent of GDP, all else equal, would be expected to increase the long-term real rate of interest by about three basis points, though one specification suggests a larger impact, while some estimates are not statistically significantly different from zero. By presenting a range of results with the same data, we illustrate the dependence of estimation on specification and definition differences.

The Adequacy of Retirement Saving

macroeconomics, saving, retirement

Plasma Sialic Acid Levels in Normal Beagles

Glycoproteins are found in cell membraines, plasma and in various secretions. Many plasma proteins have carbohydrates covalently bound to them. Carbohydrate unites will containe hexoses, N-acetylglucoseamine, Nacetylgalactoseamine, fucose and sialic acid (N-acetylneuraminic acid)

Modeling the long-period body waves from shallow earthquakes at regional ranges

A procedure for modeling P and PL waves recorded on long-period WWSSN instruments at ranges 1° to 12° is presented. Following the experience gained by modeling explosions (Helmberger, 1972), we demonstrate that these long-period phases are adequately treated by a single crustal layer for most of Western United States. After generating the Green's functions at the various ranges for the three fundamental dislocation types, we need only construct linear combinations of these vectors to represent any arbitrary oriented earthquake. The waveform patterns produced from the various fault types are quite diagnostic with the dip-slip orientations showing a strong ringing nature which is caused by the vertical SV lobes. To test the usefulness of this technique, we construct synthetics for some well-studied west coast earthquakes where the orientation, time history, and moment have been determined independently. Comparing the predicted seismograms with observations, we find good agreement in waveshapes and amplitudes

Excitation of mantle Love waves and definition of mantle wave magnitude

A study is made of the excitation of mantle Love waves of 100 seconds period as a function of magnitude. 153 measurements of Love wave spectral density for earthquakes since 1930 ranging in magnitude from 6.0 to 8.9 are used to determine an excitation curve. The observations were first corrected to a standard distance of 90°. The excitation curve supports earlier results for mantle Rayleigh waves and, for strike-slip motion, an earlier curve for seismic moment versus mantle-wave magnitude. For dip-slip motion, the moments should be multiplied by a factor of about 2 1/2. A definition of mantle wave magnitude M_M, is set up, and the largest earthquake since 1930 found on this scale is the Alaskan earthquake of March 28, 1964 where M_M = 8.9. Other comparably large earthquakes, M_M = 8.8, were the Kamchatka earthquake of November 4, 1952 and the Chilean earthquake of May 22, 1960. It is suggested that mantle-wave magnitudes be used as a diagnostic aid in estimating the Tsunami potential of earthquakes

Do personal traits of the leader predict differences in leader and subordinate evaluations of leader effectiveness:A study in the banking industry in Ethiopia

Purpose:  This study aims to examine whether the internal locus of control, self-esteem and leadership self-efficacy can predict differences in self–other rating agreement on leader effectiveness. First, the authors predicted that the greater the internal locus of a leader the more their self-rating will be in agreement with others' rating of them (1a). Second, the authors proposed that the greater the self-esteem of a leader the more their self-rating will be in discrepancy with others' rating (1b). Third, the authors hypothesized that the greater the self-efficacy of a leader the more their self-rating will be in agreement with others' rating (1c).  Design/methodology/approach:  To test the hypotheses, multisource data were collected from 128 banking leaders (who responded about different aspects of leadership self-efficacy, internal locus of control, self-esteem and leadership effectiveness) and 344 subordinates (who rated their leaders' effectiveness in performing leadership tasks).Multivariate regression was performed by jointly regressing both leaders' self-ratings and subordinates' ratings as a dependent variable on internal locus of control, self-esteem and leadership self-efficacy as predictor variables.  Findings:  Self-esteem of a leader the more their self-rating will be in discrepancy with others' ratings. Originality/value: The study tried to investigate the leader-subordinate dis(agreement) on leaders’ effectiveness taking banking leaders in the Ethiopian Context. The finding of the results is crucial and important for leadership development programs

Evidence of tectonic release from underground nuclear explosions in long-period S waves

The SH waves from 21 underground nuclear explosions at Pahute Mesa (NTS) were used to investigate tectonic release. The equivalent double-couple representation of the tectonic release, which was constrained by waveform modeling and the polarity of sP, is very similar for all the explosions. The average orientation is a right-lateral, strike-slip fault trending N15°W. Seismic moments were determined on the basis of comparisons with two western United States strike-slip earthquakes. BENHAM has the largest tectonic release moment (5.6 × 10^(24) dyne-cm) and STILTON (0.1 × 10^(24) dyne-cm) the smallest of the events studied. In general, the seismic moments increase with the size of the explosion, but the location of the explosion relative to previous explosions can strongly affect the tectonic release. The Pahute Mesa events can be separated into two populations: (1) events which are well separated (>4 km) from previous explosions, and (2) those events which are close (<4 km) to previous explosions. Those events which are close to previous explosions show a marked decrease in tectonic release. A least-squares fit of seismic moment to event size (as determined from the world wide, average ab amplitude) shows that the two populations are approximately parallel, but offset. The fact that the trends remain separated even at small yields (e.g., PIPKIN and SCOTCH) suggests that for Pahute Mesa there is not a threshold for tectonic release. Since spatial position gives the best separation of high and low tectonic release events, a volume model is favored for the source mechanism. The preferred model is motion on a system of faults and joints

Locations of small earthquakes near the trifurcation of the San Jacinto fault southeast of Anza, California

About 100 small earthquakes (M ≈ 1/2 to 2) which occurred near the trifurcation of the San Jacinto fault southeast of Anza, California, have been accurately located using five- and six-station arrays with dimensions of about 10 km. The pattern of epicenters is complex and extends several km outside of the area outlined by the traces of faulting. Patterns of seismicity observed on opposite sides of the San Jacinto fault are significantly different. On the southwest side, a concentration of foci lies at a depth of about 4-7 km along the projected extension of the Coyote Creek fault a few km northwest of the last surface evidence of faulting. On the northeast side, earthquakes are concentrated at depths between 10 and 15 km. A group of the latter events recorded about 1 week after the magnitude 4.7 earthquake of May 21, 1967 forms a linear pattern parallel to the San Jacinto fault with depths from 3 to 15 km. This pattern may represent the zone of energy release or slip for that earthquake and possibly the plane of the San Jacinto fault at depth, although the epicenters are located about 2 to 3 km to the northeast of the trace of the San Jacinto fault. Most of the earthquakes located in this study are not aftershocks in the usual sense, i.e., easily correlated with a preceding large earthquake. They represent a complex pattern of seismicity which has continued at least for the last 3 years on the micro-earthquake level and for the last 30 years on the macroseismic level

INCLEAD:Development of an inclusive leadership measurement tool

In this paper, as preview of an ongoing research manuscript, we aim to provide the field with an inclusive leadership operationalization reflecting a consolidated conceptualization of inclusive leadership. We use the consolidated conceptualization of inclusive leadership developed recently based on the existing knowledge in the literature

Estimating Density Dependence, Environmental Variance, and Long-Term Selection on a Stage-Structured Life History

A method for analyzing long-term demographic data on density-dependent stage-structured populations in a stochastic environment is derived to facilitate comparison of populations and species with different life histories. We assume that a weighted sum of stage abundances, N, exerts density dependence on stage-specific vital rates of survival and reproduction and that N has a small or moderate coefficient of variation. The dynamics of N are approximated as a univariate stochastic process governed by three key parameters: the density-independent growth rate, the net density dependence, and environmental variance in the life history. We show how to estimate the relative weighs of stages in N and the key parameters. Life history evolution represents a stochastic maximization of a simple function of the key parameters. The long-term selection gradient on the life history can be expressed as a vector of sensitivities of this function with respect to density-independent, density-dependent, and stochastic components of the vital rates. To illustrate the method, we analyze 38 years of demographic data on a great tit population, estimating the key parameters, which accurately predict the observed mean, coefficient of variation, and fluctuation rate of N; we also evaluate the long-term selection gradient on the life history.</p