The dynamics of measles in sub-Saharan Africa.

Although vaccination has almost eliminated measles in parts of the world, the disease remains a major killer in some high birth rate countries of the Sahel. On the basis of measles dynamics for industrialized countries, high birth rate regions should experience regular annual epidemics. Here, however, we show that measles epidemics in Niger are highly episodic, particularly in the capital Niamey. Models demonstrate that this variability arises from powerful seasonality in transmission-generating high amplitude epidemics-within the chaotic domain of deterministic dynamics. In practice, this leads to frequent stochastic fadeouts, interspersed with irregular, large epidemics. A metapopulation model illustrates how increased vaccine coverage, but still below the local elimination threshold, could lead to increasingly variable major outbreaks in highly seasonally forced contexts. Such erratic dynamics emphasize the importance both of control strategies that address build-up of susceptible individuals and efforts to mitigate the impact of large outbreaks when they occur

Rubella metapopulation dynamics and importance of spatial coupling to the risk of congenital rubella syndrome in Peru

Rubella is generally a mild childhood disease, but infection during early pregnancy may cause spontaneous abortion or congenital rubella syndrome (CRS), which may entail a variety of birth defects. Consequently, understanding the age-structured dynamics of this infection has considerable public health value. Vaccination short of the threshold for local elimination of transmission will increase the average age of infection. Accordingly, the classic concern for this infection is the potential for vaccination to increase incidence in individuals of childbearing age. A neglected aspect of rubella dynamics is how age incidence patterns may be moulded by the spatial dynamics inherent to epidemic metapopulations. Here, we use a uniquely detailed dataset from Peru to explore the implications of this for the burden of CRS. Our results show that the risk of CRS may be particularly severe in small remote regions, a prediction at odds with expectations in the endemic situation, and with implications for the outcome of vaccination. This outcome results directly from the metapopulation context: specifically, extinction–re-colonization dynamics are crucial because they allow for significant leakage of susceptible individuals into the older age classes during inter-epidemic periods with the potential to increase CRS risk by as much as fivefold

Predators reduce extinction risk in noisy metapopulations

Background Spatial structure across fragmented landscapes can enhance regional population persistence by promoting local “rescue effects.” In small, vulnerable populations, where chance or random events between individuals may have disproportionately large effects on species interactions, such local processes are particularly important. However, existing theory often only describes the dynamics of metapopulations at regional scales, neglecting the role of multispecies population dynamics within habitat patches. Findings By coupling analysis across spatial scales we quantified the interaction between local scale population regulation, regional dispersal and noise processes in the dynamics of experimental host-parasitoid metapopulations. We find that increasing community complexity increases negative correlation between local population dynamics. A potential mechanism underpinning this finding was explored using a simple population dynamic model. Conclusions Our results suggest a paradox: parasitism, whilst clearly damaging to hosts at the individual level, reduces extinction risk at the population level

How to avoid a local epidemic becoming a global pandemic

Here, we combine international air travel passenger data with a standard epidemiological model of the initial 3 mo of the COVID-19 pandemic (January through March 2020; toward the end of which the entire world locked down). Using the information available during this initial phase of the pandemic, our model accurately describes the main features of the actual global development of the pandemic demonstrated by the high degree of coherence between the model and global data. The validated model allows for an exploration of alternative policy efficacies (reducing air travel and/or introducing different degrees of compulsory immigration quarantine upon arrival to a country) in delaying the global spread of SARS-CoV-2 and thus is suggestive of similar efficacy in anticipating the spread of future global disease outbreaks. We show that a lesson from the recent pandemic is that reducing air travel globally is more effective in reducing the global spread than adopting immigration quarantine. Reducing air travel out of a source country has the most important effect regarding the spreading of the disease to the rest of the world. Based upon our results, we propose a digital twin as a further developed tool to inform future pandemic decision-making to inform measures intended to control the spread of disease agents of potential future pandemics. We discuss the design criteria for such a digital twin model as well as the feasibility of obtaining access to the necessary online data on international air travel

Analysis of a spatial Lotka-Volterra model with a finite range predator-prey interaction

We perform an analysis of a recent spatial version of the classical Lotka-Volterra model, where a finite scale controls individuals' interaction. We study the behavior of the predator-prey dynamics in physical spaces higher than one, showing how spatial patterns can emerge for some values of the interaction range and of the diffusion parameter.Comment: 7 pages, 7 figure

Cyanobacteria as a Source for Novel Anti-Leukemic Compounds

Cyanobacteria are an inspiring source of bioactive secondary metabolites. These bioactive agents are a diverse group of compounds which are varying in their bioactive targets, the mechanisms of action, and chemical structures. Cyanobacteria from various environments, especially marine benthic cyanobacteria, are found to be rich sources for the search for novel bioactive compounds. Several compounds with anticancer activities have been discovered from cyanobacteria and some of these have succeeded to enter the clinical trials. Varying anticancer agents are needed to overcome increasing challenges in cancer treatments. Different search methods are used to reveal anticancer compounds from natural products, but cell based methods are the most common. Cyanobacterial bioactive compounds as agents against acute myeloid leukemia are not well studied. Here we examined our new results combined with previous studies of anti-leukemic compounds from cyanobacteria with emphasis to reveal common features in strains producing such activity. We report that cyanobacteria harbor specific anti-leukemic compounds since several studied strains induced apoptosis against AML cells but were inactive against non-malignant cells like hepatocytes. We noted that particularly benthic strains from the Baltic Sea, such as Anabaena sp., were especially potential AML apoptosis inducers. Taken together, this review and re-analysis of data demonstrates the power of maintaining large culture collections for the search for novel bioactivities, and also how anti-AML activity in cyanobacteria can be revealed by relatively simple and low-cost assays.Peer reviewe

Performance of the LHCb vertex locator

The Vertex Locator (VELO) is a silicon microstrip detector that surrounds the proton-proton interaction region in the LHCb experiment. The performance of the detector during the first years of its physics operation is reviewed. The system is operated in vacuum, uses a bi-phase CO2 cooling system, and the sensors are moved to 7 mm from the LHC beam for physics data taking. The performance and stability of these characteristic features of the detector are described, and details of the material budget are given. The calibration of the timing and the data processing algorithms that are implemented in FPGAs are described. The system performance is fully characterised. The sensors have a signal to noise ratio of approximately 20 and a best hit resolution of 4 μm is achieved at the optimal track angle. The typical detector occupancy for minimum bias events in standard operating conditions in 2011 is around 0.5%, and the detector has less than 1% of faulty strips. The proximity of the detector to the beam means that the inner regions of the n+-on-n sensors have undergone space-charge sign inversion due to radiation damage. The VELO performance parameters that drive the experiment's physics sensitivity are also given. The track finding efficiency of the VELO is typically above 98% and the modules have been aligned to a precision of 1 μm for translations in the plane transverse to the beam. A primary vertex resolution of 13 μm in the transverse plane and 71 μm along the beam axis is achieved for vertices with 25 tracks. An impact parameter resolution of less than 35 μm is achieved for particles with transverse momentum greater than 1 GeV/c

Variable strength of forest stand attributes and weather conditions on the questing activity of Ixodes ricinus ticks over years in managed forests

Given the ever-increasing human impact through land use and climate change on the environment, we crucially need to achieve a better understanding of those factors that influence the questing activity of ixodid ticks, a major disease-transmitting vector in temperate forests. We investigated variation in the relative questing nymph densities of Ixodes ricinus in differently managed forest types for three years (2008–2010) in SW Germany by drag sampling. We used a hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach to examine the relative effects of habitat and weather and to consider possible nested structures of habitat and climate forces. The questing activity of nymphs was considerably larger in young forest successional stages of thicket compared with pole wood and timber stages. Questing nymph density increased markedly with milder winter temperatures. Generally, the relative strength of the various environmental forces on questing nymph density differed across years. In particular, winter temperature had a negative effect on tick activity across sites in 2008 in contrast to the overall effect of temperature across years. Our results suggest that forest management practices have important impacts on questing nymph density. Variable weather conditions, however, might override the effects of forest management practices on the fluctuations and dynamics of tick populations and activity over years, in particular, the preceding winter temperatures. Therefore, robust predictions and the detection of possible interactions and nested structures of habitat and climate forces can only be quantified through the collection of long-term data. Such data are particularly important with regard to future scenarios of forest management and climate warming

Precision luminosity measurements at LHCb

Measuring cross-sections at the LHC requires the luminosity to be determined accurately at each centre-of-mass energy √s. In this paper results are reported from the luminosity calibrations carried out at the LHC interaction point 8 with the LHCb detector for √s = 2.76, 7 and 8 TeV (proton-proton collisions) and for √sNN = 5 TeV (proton-lead collisions). Both the "van der Meer scan" and "beam-gas imaging" luminosity calibration methods were employed. It is observed that the beam density profile cannot always be described by a function that is factorizable in the two transverse coordinates. The introduction of a two-dimensional description of the beams improves significantly the consistency of the results. For proton-proton interactions at √s = 8 TeV a relative precision of the luminosity calibration of 1.47% is obtained using van der Meer scans and 1.43% using beam-gas imaging, resulting in a combined precision of 1.12%. Applying the calibration to the full data set determines the luminosity with a precision of 1.16%. This represents the most precise luminosity measurement achieved so far at a bunched-beam hadron collider