The Complex Roots of the Second Eritrea- Ethiopia War: Re-examining the Causes

The article highlights some of the embedded plausible causes of the war that are quite often glossed over. It argues that at the centre of the conflict stand different perceptions of history, identity, as well as claims and counterclaims of state rights, decolonisation process, and nation-state formation. Beyond the minor border skirmishes of May 1998, the  contested interpretation of history and identity formation, and the concomitant search for a separate identity and sovereignty, on one hand, and denial of that separate identity and sovereignty, on the other, explain the Eritrea-Ethiopia conflict. In that sense the Eritrea-Ethiopia conflict will be found to revolve around the status of Eritrean independence. Moreover two sets of the conflict – Tigray-Eritrea and Ethiopia-Eritrea – have further complicated the search for settlement of the conflict. The first step towards finding a lasting solution that would normalise relations between the two countries would be Ethiopia’s definitive and unconditional recognition and acceptance of separate Eritrean identity and sovereignty, including its colonial boundaries. Both the people of Tigray, and Ethiopia as a whole, need to accept this reality. Secondly, Ethiopia’s legitimate interest should be addressed in a manner that will not undermine Eritrea’s sovereignty. Only then will Ethiopia’s need to have access to the sea find lasting and amicable solution acceptable to both sides.Key Words: Eritrea, Ethiopia, EPLF, TPLF, war, history, identity, sovereignt

Early Use of Adjunctive Therapies for Pediatric Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome:A PARDIE Study

Rationale: Few data exist to guide early adjunctive therapy use in pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome (PARDS). Objectives: To describe contemporary use of adjunctive therapies for early PARDS as a framework for future investigations. Methods: This was a preplanned substudy of a prospective, international, cross-sectional observational study of children with PARDS from 100 centers over 10 study weeks. Measurements and Main Results: We investigated six adjunctive therapies for PARDS: continuous neuromuscular blockade, corticosteroids, inhaled nitric oxide (iNO), prone positioning, high-frequency oscillatory ventilation (HFOV), and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. Almost half (45%) of children with PARDS received at least one therapy. Variability was noted in the median starting oxygenation index of each therapy; corticosteroids started at the lowest oxygenation index (13.0; interquartile range, 7.6–22.0) and HFOV at the highest (25.7; interquartile range, 16.7–37.3). Continuous neuromuscular blockade was the most common, used in 31%, followed by iNO (13%), corticosteroids (10%), prone positioning (10%), HFOV (9%), and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (3%). Steroids, iNO, and HFOV were associated with comorbidities. Prone positioning and HFOV were more common in middle-income countries and less frequently used in North America. The use of multiple ancillary therapies increased over the first 3 days of PARDS, but there was not an easily identifiable pattern of combination or order of use. Conclusions: The contemporary description of prevalence, combinations of therapies, and oxygenation threshold for which the therapies are applied is important for design of future studies. Region of the world, income, and comorbidities influence adjunctive therapy use and are important variables to include in PARDS investigations

Predicting Mortality in Children With Pediatric Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome:A Pediatric Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Incidence and Epidemiology Study

OBJECTIVES: Pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome is heterogeneous, with a paucity of risk stratification tools to assist with trial design. We aimed to develop and validate mortality prediction models for patients with pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome. DESIGN: Leveraging additional data collection from a preplanned ancillary study (Version 1) of the multinational Pediatric Acute Respiratory Distress syndrome Incidence and Epidemiology study, we identified predictors of mortality. Separate models were built for the entire Version 1 cohort, for the cohort excluding neurologic deaths, for intubated subjects, and for intubated subjects excluding neurologic deaths. Models were externally validated in a cohort of intubated pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome patients from the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia. SETTING: The derivation cohort represented 100 centers worldwide; the validation cohort was from Children's Hospital of Philadelphia. PATIENTS: There were 624 and 640 subjects in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The model for the full cohort included immunocompromised status, Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction 2 score, day 0 vasopressor-inotrope score and fluid balance, and PaO2/FIO2 6 hours after pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome onset. This model had good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.82), calibration, and internal validation. Models excluding neurologic deaths, for intubated subjects, and for intubated subjects excluding neurologic deaths also demonstrated good discrimination (all area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ≥ 0.84) and calibration. In the validation cohort, models for intubated pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome (including and excluding neurologic deaths) had excellent discrimination (both area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ≥ 0.85), but poor calibration. After revision, the model for all intubated subjects remained miscalibrated, whereas the model excluding neurologic deaths showed perfect calibration. Mortality models also stratified ventilator-free days at 28 days in both derivation and validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: We describe predictive models for mortality in pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome using readily available variables from day 0 of pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome which outperform severity of illness scores and which demonstrate utility for composite outcomes such as ventilator-free days. Models can assist with risk stratification for clinical trials

Prospective clinical testing and experimental validation of the Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model

Sepsis remains a major public health problem with no major therapeutic advances over the last several decades. The clinical and biological heterogeneity of sepsis have limited success of potential new therapies. Accordingly, there is considerable interest in developing a precision medicine approach to inform more rational development, testing, and targeting of new therapies. We previously developed the Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model (PERSEVERE) to estimate mortality risk and proposed its use as a prognostic enrichment tool in sepsis clinical trials; prognostic enrichment selects patients based on mortality risk independent of treatment. Here, we show that PERSEVERE has excellent performance in a diverse cohort of children with septic shock with potential for use as a predictive enrichment strategy; predictive enrichment selects patients based on likely response to treatment. We demonstrate that the PERSEVERE biomarkers are reliably associated with mortality in mice challenged with experimental sepsis, thus providing an opportunity to test precision medicine strategies in the preclinical setting. Using this model, we tested two clinically feasible therapeutic strategies, guided by the PERSEVERE-based enrichment, and found that mice identified as high risk for mortality had a greater bacterial burden and could be rescued by higher doses of antibiotics. The association between higher pathogen burden and higher mortality risk was corroborated among critically ill children with septic shock. This bedside to bench to bedside approach provides proof of principle for PERSEVERE-guided application of precision medicine in sepsis

Early Use of Adjunctive Therapies for Pediatric Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome:A PARDIE Study

Rationale: Few data exist to guide early adjunctive therapy use in pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome (PARDS).Objectives: To describe contemporary use of adjunctive therapies for early PARDS as a framework for future investigations.Methods: This was a preplanned substudy of a prospective, international, cross-sectional observational study of children with PARDS from 100 centers over 10 study weeks.Measurements and Main Results: We investigated six adjunctive therapies for PARDS: continuous neuromuscular blockade, corticosteroids, inhaled nitric oxide (iNO), prone positioning, high-frequency oscillatory ventilation (HFOV), and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. Almost half (45%) of children with PARDS received at least one therapy. Variability was noted in the median starting oxygenation index of each therapy; corticosteroids started at the lowest oxygenation index (13.0; interquartile range, 7.6-22.0) and HFOV at the highest (25.7; interquartile range, 16.7-37.3). Continuous neuromuscular blockade was the most common, used in 31%, followed by iNO (13%), corticosteroids (10%), prone positioning (10%), HFOV (9%), and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (3%). Steroids, iNO, and HFOV were associated with comorbidities. Prone positioning and HFOV were more common in middle-income countries and less frequently used in North America. The use of multiple ancillary therapies increased over the first 3 days of PARDS, but there was not an easily identifiable pattern of combination or order of use.Conclusions: The contemporary description of prevalence, combinations of therapies, and oxygenation threshold for which the therapies are applied is important for design of future studies. Region of the world, income, and comorbidities influence adjunctive therapy use and are important variables to include in PARDS investigations.</p

Predicting Mortality in Children With Pediatric Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome:A Pediatric Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Incidence and Epidemiology Study

OBJECTIVES: Pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome is heterogeneous, with a paucity of risk stratification tools to assist with trial design. We aimed to develop and validate mortality prediction models for patients with pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome.DESIGN: Leveraging additional data collection from a preplanned ancillary study (Version 1) of the multinational Pediatric Acute Respiratory Distress syndrome Incidence and Epidemiology study, we identified predictors of mortality. Separate models were built for the entire Version 1 cohort, for the cohort excluding neurologic deaths, for intubated subjects, and for intubated subjects excluding neurologic deaths. Models were externally validated in a cohort of intubated pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome patients from the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia.SETTING: The derivation cohort represented 100 centers worldwide; the validation cohort was from Children's Hospital of Philadelphia.PATIENTS: There were 624 and 640 subjects in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively.INTERVENTIONS: None.MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The model for the full cohort included immunocompromised status, Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction 2 score, day 0 vasopressor-inotrope score and fluid balance, and PaO2/FIO2 6 hours after pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome onset. This model had good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.82), calibration, and internal validation. Models excluding neurologic deaths, for intubated subjects, and for intubated subjects excluding neurologic deaths also demonstrated good discrimination (all area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ≥ 0.84) and calibration. In the validation cohort, models for intubated pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome (including and excluding neurologic deaths) had excellent discrimination (both area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ≥ 0.85), but poor calibration. After revision, the model for all intubated subjects remained miscalibrated, whereas the model excluding neurologic deaths showed perfect calibration. Mortality models also stratified ventilator-free days at 28 days in both derivation and validation cohorts.CONCLUSIONS: We describe predictive models for mortality in pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome using readily available variables from day 0 of pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome which outperform severity of illness scores and which demonstrate utility for composite outcomes such as ventilator-free days. Models can assist with risk stratification for clinical trials.</p

Integrated PERSEVERE and endothelial biomarker risk model predicts death and persistent MODS in pediatric septic shock: a secondary analysis of a prospective observational study

Abstract Background Multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) is a critical driver of sepsis morbidity and mortality in children. Early identification of those at risk of death and persistent organ dysfunctions is necessary to enrich patients for future trials of sepsis therapeutics. Here, we sought to integrate endothelial and PERSEVERE biomarkers to estimate the composite risk of death or organ dysfunctions on day 7 of septic shock. Methods We measured endothelial dysfunction markers from day 1 serum among those with existing PERSEVERE data. TreeNet® classification model was derived incorporating 22 clinical and biological variables to estimate risk. Based on relative variable importance, a simplified 6-biomarker model was developed thereafter. Results Among 502 patients, 49 patients died before day 7 and 124 patients had persistence of MODS on day 7 of septic shock. Area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) for the newly derived PERSEVEREnce model to predict death or day 7 MODS was 0.93 (0.91–0.95) with a summary AUROC of 0.80 (0.76–0.84) upon tenfold cross-validation. The simplified model, based on IL-8, HSP70, ICAM-1, Angpt2/Tie2, Angpt2/Angpt1, and Thrombomodulin, performed similarly. Interaction between variables—ICAM-1 with IL-8 and Thrombomodulin with Angpt2/Angpt1—contributed to the models’ predictive capabilities. Model performance varied when estimating risk of individual organ dysfunctions with AUROCS ranging from 0.91 to 0.97 and 0.68 to 0.89 in training and test sets, respectively. Conclusions The newly derived PERSEVEREnce biomarker model reliably estimates risk of death or persistent organ dysfunctions on day 7 of septic shock. If validated, this tool can be used for prognostic enrichment in future pediatric trials of sepsis therapeutics. Graphical abstrac