Decadal-timescale estuarine geomorphic change under future scenarios of climate and sediment supply

© The Authors, 2009. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial License. The definitive version was published in Estuaries and Coasts 33 (2010): 15-29, doi:10.1007/s12237-009-9244-y.Future estuarine geomorphic change, in response to climate change, sea-level rise, and watershed sediment supply, may govern ecological function, navigation, and water quality. We estimated geomorphic changes in Suisun Bay, CA, under four scenarios using a tidal-timescale hydrodynamic/sediment transport model. Computational expense and data needs were reduced using the morphological hydrograph concept and the morphological acceleration factor. The four scenarios included (1) present-day conditions; (2) sea-level rise and freshwater flow changes of 2030; (3) sea-level rise and decreased watershed sediment supply of 2030; and (4) sea-level rise, freshwater flow changes, and decreased watershed sediment supply of 2030. Sea-level rise increased water levels thereby reducing wave-induced bottom shear stress and sediment redistribution during the wind-wave season. Decreased watershed sediment supply reduced net deposition within the estuary, while minor changes in freshwater flow timing and magnitude induced the smallest overall effect. In all future scenarios, net deposition in the entire estuary and in the shallowest areas did not keep pace with sea-level rise, suggesting that intertidal and wetland areas may struggle to maintain elevation. Tidal-timescale simulations using future conditions were also used to infer changes in optical depth: though sea-level rise acts to decrease mean light irradiance, decreased suspended-sediment concentrations increase irradiance, yielding small changes in optical depth. The modeling results also assisted with the development of a dimensionless estuarine geomorphic number representing the ratio of potential sediment import forces to sediment export forces; we found the number to be linearly related to relative geomorphic change in Suisun Bay. The methods implemented here are widely applicable to evaluating future scenarios of estuarine change over decadal timescales.This study was supported by the US Geological Survey’s Priority Ecosystems Science program, CALFED Bay/ Delta Program, and the University of California Center for Water Resources

Modelling-based assessment of suspended sediment dynamics in a hypertidal estuarine channel

We investigate the dynamics of suspended sediment transport in a hypertidal estuarine channel which displays a vertically sheared exchange flow. We apply a three-dimensional process-based model coupling hydrodynamics, turbulence and sediment transport to the Dee Estuary, in the north-west region of the UK. The numerical model is used to reproduce observations of suspended sediment and to assess physical processes responsible for the observed suspended sediment concentration patterns. The study period focuses on a calm period during which wave-current interactions can reasonably be neglected. Good agreement between model and observations has been obtained. A series of numerical experiments aim to isolate specific processes and confirm that the suspended sediment dynamics result primarily from advection of a longitudinal gradient in concentration during our study period, combined with resuspension and vertical exchange processes. Horizontal advection of sediment presents a strong semi-diurnal variability, while vertical exchange processes (including time-varying settling as a proxy for flocculation) exhibit a quarter-diurnal variability. Sediment input from the river is found to have very little importance, and spatial gradients in suspended concentration are generated by spatial heterogeneity in bed sediment characteristics and spatial variations in turbulence and bed shear stress