The effect of HIV, behavioural change, and STD syndromic management on STD epidemiology in sub-Saharan Africa: simulations of Uganda

An assessment was made of how the HIV epidemic may have influenced sexually transmitted disease (STD) epidemiology in Uganda, and how HIV would affect the effectiveness of syndromic STD treatment programmes during different stages of the epidemic. The dynamic transmission model STDSIM was used to simulate the spread of HIV and four bacterial and one viral STD. Model parameters were quantified using demographic, behavioural, and epidemiological data from rural Rakai and ot

Feasibility of controlling hookworm infection through preventive chemotherapy: a simulation study using the individual-based WORMSIM modelling framework

Background: Globally, hookworms infect 440 million people in developing countries. Especially children and women of childbearing age are at risk of developing anaemia as a result of infection. To control hookworm infection and disease (i.e. reduce the prevalence of medium and heavy infection to <1 %), the World Health Organization has set the target to provide annual or semi-annual preventive chemotherapy (PC) with albendazole (ALB) or mebendazole (MEB) to at least 75 % of all children and women of childbearing age in endemic areas by 2020. Here, we predict the feasibility of achieving <1 % prevalence of medium and heavy infection, based on simulations with an individual-based model. Methods: We developed WORMSIM, a new generalized individual-based modelling framework for transmission and control of helminths, and quantified it for hookworm transmission based on published data. We simulated the impact of standard and more intense PC strategies on trends in hookworm infection, and explored the potential additional impact of interventions that improve access to water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH). The individual-based framework allowed us to take account of inter-individual heterogeneities in exposure and contribution to transmission of infection, as well as in participation in successive PC rounds. Results: We predict that in low and medium endemic areas, current PC strategies (including targeting of WCBA) will achieve control of hookworm infection (i.e. the parasitological target) within 2 years. In highly endemic areas, control can be achieved with semi-annual PC with ALB at 90 % coverage, combined with interventions that reduce host contributions to the environmental reservoir of infection by 50 %. More intense PC strategies (high frequency and coverage) can help speed up control of hookworm infection, and may be necessary in some extremely highly endemic settings, but are not a panacea against systematic non-participation to PC. Conclusions: Control of hookworm infection by 2020 is feasible with current PC strategies (including targeting of WCBA). In highly endemic areas, PC should be combined with health education and/or WASH interventions

The role of acquired immunity in the spread of human papillomavirus (HPV): Explorations with a microsimulation model

__Background:__ Knowledge of the natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV), in particular the role of immunity, is crucial in estimating the (cost-) effectiveness of HPV vaccination and cervical cancer screening strategies, because naturally acquired immunity after clearing an infection may already protect part of the risk population against new HPV infections. __Methods:__ We used STDSIM, an established stochastic microsimulation model, quantified to the Netherlands. We explored different assumptions regarding the natural history of HPV-16 and HPV-18, and estimated the transmission probabilities and durations of acquired immunity necessary to reproduce age-specific prevalence. __Results:__ A model without acquired immunity cannot reproduce the age-specific patterns of HPV. Also, it is necessary to assume a high degree of individual variation in the duration of infection and acquired immunity. According to the model estimates, on average 20% of women are immune for HPV-16 and 15% for HPV-18. After an HPV-16 infection, 50% are immune for less than 1 year, whereas 20% exceed 30 years. For HPV-18, up to 12% of the individuals are immune for less than 1 year, and about 50% over 30 years. Almost half of all women will never acquire HPV-16 or HPV-18. __Conclusions:__ Acquired immunity likely plays a major role in HPV epidemiology, but its duration shows substantial variation. Combined with the lifetime risk, this explains to a large extent why many women will never develop cervical cancer

Predicted short and long-term impact of deworming and water, hygiene, and sanitation on transmission of soil-transmitted helminths

Background: Regular preventive chemotherapy (PCT) targeting high-risk populations is an effective way to control STH in the short term, but sustainable long-term STH control is expected to require improved access to water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH). However, experimental studies have not been able to conclusively demonstrate the benefit of WASH in preventing STH (re-)infections. We investigated the impact of WASH on STH infections during and after PCT using mathematical modelling. Methods and findings: We use the individual-based transmission model WORMSIM to predict the short and long-term impact of WASH on STH transmission in contexts with and without PCT. We distinguish two WASH modalities: sanitation, which reduces individuals’ contributions to environmental contamination; and hygiene, which reduces individuals’ exposure to infection. We simulate the impact of varying levels of uptake and effectiveness of each WASH modality, as well as their combined impact. Clearly, sanitation and hygiene interventions have little observable short-term impact on STH infections levels in the context of PCT. However, in the long term, both are pivotal to sustain control or eliminate infection levels after scaling down or stopping PCT. The impact of hygiene is determined more by the effectiveness of the intervention than its overall uptake, whereas the impact of sanitation depends more directly on the product of uptake and the effectiveness. Interpretation: The impact of WASH interventions on STH transmission highly depends on the worm species, WASH modality, and uptake and effectiveness of the intervention. Also, the impact of WASH is difficult to measure in the context of ongoing PCT programmes. Still, we show a clear added benefit of WASH to sustain the gains made by PCT in the long term, such that PCT may be scaled down or even stopped altogether. To safely stop or scale down PCT, policy for WASH and PCT should be integrated

Concerted Efforts to Control or Eliminate Neglected Tropical Diseases

Background: The London Declaration (2012) was formulated to support and focus the control and elimination of ten neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), with targets for 2020 as formulated by the WHO Roadmap. Five NTDs (lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminths and trachoma) are to be controlled by preventive chemotherapy (PCT), and four (Chagas’ disease, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy and visceral leishmaniasis) by innovative and intensified disease management (IDM). Guinea worm, virtually eradicated, is not considered here. We aim to estimate the global health impact of meeting these targets in terms of averted morbidity, mortality, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs). Methods: The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 study provides prevalence and burden estimates for all nine NTDs in 1990 and 2010, by country, age and sex, which were taken as the basis for our calculations. Estimates for other years were obtained by interpolating between 1990 (or the start-year of large-scale control efforts) and 2010, and further extrapolating until 2030, such that the 2020 targets were met. The NTD disease manifestations considered in the GBD study were analyzed as either reversible or irreversible. Health impacts were assessed by comparing the results of achieving the targets with the counterfactual, construed as the health burden had the 1990 (or 2010 if higher) situation continued unabated. Principle Findings/Conclusions: Our calculations show that meeting the targets will lead to about 600 million averted DALYs in the period 2011–2030, nearly equally distributed between PCT and IDM-NTDs, with the health gain amongst PCT-NTDs mostly (96%) due to averted disability and amongst IDM-NTDs largely (95%) from averted mortality. These health gains include about 150 million averted irreversible disease manifestations (e.g. blindness) and 5 million averted deaths. Control of soil-transmitted helminths accounts for one third of all averted DALYs. We conclude that the projected health impact of the London Declaration justifies the required efforts

The Socioeconomic Benefit to Individuals of Achieving the 2020 Targets for Five Preventive Chemotherapy Neglected Tropical Diseases

Background: Lymphatic filariasis (LF), onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminths (STH) and trachoma represent the five most prevalent neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). They can be controlled or eliminated by means of safe and cost-effective interventions delivered through programs of Mass Drug Administration (MDA)—also named Preventive Chemotherapy (PCT). The WHO defined targets for NTD control/elimination by 2020, reinforced by the 2012 London Declaration, which, if achieved, would result in dramatic health gains. We estimated the potential economic benefit of achieving these targets, focusing specifically on productivity and out-of-pocket payments. Methods: Productivity loss was calculated by combining disease frequency with productivity loss from the disease, from the perspective of affected individuals. Productivity gain was calculated by deducting the total loss expected in the target achievement scenario from the loss in a counterfactual scenario where it was assumed the pre-intervention situation in 1990 regarding NTDs would continue unabated until 2030. Economic benefits from out-of-pocket payments (OPPs) were calculated similarly. Benefits are reported in 2005 US$(purchasing power parity-adjusted and discounted at 3 Results: The economic benefit from productivity gain was estimated to be I$251 billion in 2011–2020 and I$313 billion in 2021–2030, considerably greater than the total OPPs averted of I$0.72 billion and I$0.96 billion in the same periods. The net benefit is expected to be US$ 27.4 and US$ 42.8 for every dollar invested during the same periods. Impact varies between NTDs and regions, since it is determined by disease prevalence and extent of disease-related p

Socioeconomic benefit to individuals of achieving 2020 targets for four neglected tropical diseases controlled/eliminated by innovative and intensified disease management

__Background__ The control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) has targets defined by the WHO for 2020, reinforced by the 2012 London Declaration. We estimated the economic impact to individuals of meeting these targets for human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, visceral leishmaniasis and Chagas disease, NTDs controlled or eliminated by innovative and intensified disease management (IDM). __Methods__ A systematic literature review identified information on productivity loss and out-of-pocket payments (OPPs) related to these NTDs, which were combined with projections of the number of people suffering from each NTD, country and year for 2011±2020 and 2021±2030. The ideal scenario in which the WHO's 2020 targets are met was compared with a counterfactual scenario that assumed the situation of 1990 stayed unaltered. Economic benefit equaled the difference between the two scenarios. Values are reported in 2005 US, purchasing power parity-adjusted, discounted at 3% per annum from 2010. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to quantify the degree of uncertainty around the base-case impact estimate. __Results__ The total global productivity gained for the four IDM-NTDs was I 23.1 (I$15.9 ±I$ 34.0) billion in 2011±2020 and I$35.9 (I$ 25.0 ±I$51.9) billion in 2021±2030 (2.5th and 97.5th percentiles in brackets), corresponding to US$ 10.7 billion (US$7.4 ±US$ 15.7) and US$16.6 billion (US$ 11.6 ±US$24.0). Reduction in OPPs was I$ 14 billion (US$6.7 billion) and I$ 18 billion (US$ 10.4 billion) for the same periods. __Conclusions__ We faced important limitations to our work, such as finding no OPPs for leprosy. We had to combine limited data from various sources, heterogeneous background, and of variable quality. Nevertheless, based on conservative assumptions and subsequent uncertainty analyses, we estimate that the benefits of achieving the targets are considerable. Under plausible scenarios, the economic benefits far exceed the necessary investments by endemic country governments and their development partners. Given the higher frequency of NTDs among the poorest households, these investments represent good value for money in the effort to improve well-being, distribute the world's prosperity more equitably and reduce inequity