A Toolkit for Analyzing Alternative Policies in The Chilean Economy

This paper presents a general equilibrium model for a small open economy that can be used to assess the effects of alternative policies. The model is estimated in order to replicate key characteristics of the Chilean economy by using the gradients of an Identified VAR model as matching conditions for the theoretical model. The theoretical model is sufficiently general so that it can be used to analyze issues such as alternative exchange rate regimes, controls to capital inflows, inflation targeting, and other policies used by the monetary authority. A distinguishing feature of this model is that it explicitly models the attitudes of foreign investors.

Testing for unit roots using economics

This paper considers the economic implications of having a unit root (UR) on the stochastic process of variables such as consumption or GDP. Using a variety of models, we develop indirect tests for unit roots based on sharp distinctions that should arise when the scale variable is difference stationary (DS) or trend stationary (TS). We show that these tests do not feature the undesirable size-power trade-off that characterizes traditional UR tests and apply them to a range of countries.

Forecasting Chilean Industrial Production and Sales with Automated Procedures

This paper presents a rigurous framework for evaluating alternative forecasting methods for Chilean industrial production and sales. While nonlinear features appear to be important for forecasting the very short term, simple univariate linear models perform about as well for almost every forecasting horizon.

Favored child? School choice within the family

We study school choice within the family, analyzing how birth order, gender, innate talent, and family financial restrictions impact the parents´ decision to prioritize the education of one or more of the children over the rest. We find that parents, particularly from lower income homes, are more likely to select more prestigious, higher cost schools for their eldest child, male children and the most talented children. This behavior may explain part of the positive “male bias” in learning and may have a relevant impact on income distribution among family members.School Choice; Siblings; Chile

VaR Limits for Pension Funds: An Evaluation

This paper evaluates the effects of imposing Value-at-Risk (VaR) limits and quantitative restrictions on portfolio choices in the context of a risk-based supervision framework for defined contribution pension funds. It shows the conditions under which VaR constraints are equivalent to constraints on volatility. The paper also presents some further considerations that regulators should take into account when adopting a risk-based supervision framework when contributions are mandatory and a significant part of the pension depends on the performance of past investments.Portfolio Choice; VaR

Forecasting Chilean Industrial Production and Sales With Automated Procedures

This paper presents a rigorous framework for evaluating alternative forecasting methods for Chilean industrial production and sales. While nonlinear features appear to be important for forecasting the very short term, simple univariate linear models perform about as well for almost every forecasting horizon.

On the determinants of the Chilean Economic Growth

This paper presents several methodologies for understanding the Chilean growth process. By using univariate time series representations, we find that the Chilean data is more consistent with exogenous than with endogenous growth models. Growth accounting exercises show that the mild growth rates of the sixties are mainly due to the accumulation of human and physical capital, while the booms of the mid seventies and the one from 1985 until 1998 are mainly due to TFP growth. We also find that among the most important determinants of the evolution of TFP are the evolution of terms of trade, improvements on the quality of capital, and the presence of distortions. In fact, distortions do not only eliminate the positive effects of improvements on the quality of capital, but also precede the evolution of technology shocks and increase their volatility. A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that explicitly incorporates the relative price of investment with respect to consumption goods, terms of tra de, and distortionary taxes is able to successfully replicate the impulse-response functions found on the data. This exercise suggests that distortions play a key role in explaining the growth dynamics of the Chilean experience.

Trends and Cycles in Real-Time

This paper compares the results of applying several detrending methods to the Chilean monthly economic activity index (IMACEC) that arise from using real-time data sets. We show that data revisions are extremely important and that they can lead to systematically inconsistent estimates of the trend component. Furthermore, most of the filters commonly used to detrend time series in practice, are highly unstable and unreliable for end-of-sample estimation.

General Equilibrium Models: An Overview

This article reviews the literature on general equilibrium models, relevant to the Chilean economy, and revised versions of the papers presented at the Conference of General Equilibrium Models for the Chilean Economy organized by the Central Bank of Chile, that will be published in a book by the same name (edited by Rómulo Chumacero and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2005). This introductory chapter provides a brief overview of the development and application of three families of GEMs: macroeconomic GEMs, computable general equilibrium models, and overlapping generations models. We also summarize the scope and main results of the twelve GEMs that comprise the volume.

Is There Enough Evidence Against Absolute Convergence?

This paper analyzes whether or not the econometric methods usually applied to test for absolute convergence have provided this hypothesis a fair. I show that traditional (absolute and conditional) convergence tests are not consistent with even the simplest model that displays convergence. Furthermore, claims of divergence on the grounds of bimodalities in the distribution of GDP per capita can be made consistent with models in which neither divergence nor twin peaks are present in the long run.