One Mandarin Benefits the Whole Clan: Hometown Infrastructure and Nepotism in an Autocracy

This paper studies nepotism by government officials in an authoritarian regime. We collect a unique dataset of political promotions of officials in Vietnam and estimate their impact on public infrastructure in their hometowns. We find strong positive effects on several outcomes, some with lags, including roads to villages, marketplaces, clean water access, preschools, irrigation, and local radio broadcasters, as well as the hometown’s propensity to benefit from the State’s “poor commune support program”. Nepotism is not limited to only top-level officials, pervasive even among those without direct authority over hometown budgets, stronger when the hometown chairperson’s and promoted official’s ages are closer, and where provincial leadership has more discretionary power in shaping policies, suggesting that nepotism works through informal channels based on specific political power and environment. Contrary to pork barrel politics in democratic parliaments, members of the Vietnamese legislative body have little influence on infrastructure investments for their hometowns. Given the top-down nature of political promotions, officials arguably do not help their tiny communes in exchange for political support. Consistent with that, officials favor only their home commune and ignore their home district, which could offer larger political support. These findings suggest that nepotism is motivated by officials’ social preferences directed towards their related circles, and signals an additional form of corruption that may prevail in developing countries with low transparency.nepotism, infrastructure construction, official’s hometown, political connection,political promotion, social preference, directed altruism

Influence of water temperature and salinity on pH during dry season in lower Dong Nai river system, Vietnam

This paper uses the gvSIG 2.2.0 software, IDW interpolation method, river and stream network data, and 36 sampling sites to build the maps of three monitored parameters such as pH, water temperature, and salinity in the Lower Dong Nai River system (2009–2010) in dry season. Based on an analysis of these maps and statistical assessment by using the R software, the correlations between pH, temperature, and salinity are clarified. The results show that the pH and temperature values have a tendency to decrease, whereas the salinity tends to increase annually. The pH value has good and significant correlations with the water temperature and salinity in both simple and multiple linear regression models. The results aim to provide a scientific reference for further research on the water environment in this area

A Centered Index of Spatial Concentration: Axiomatic Approach with an Application to Population and Capital Cities

We construct an axiomatic index of spatial concentration around a center or capital point of interest, a concept with wide applicability from urban economics, economic geography and trade, to political economy and industrial organization. We propose basic axioms (decomposability and monotonicity) and refinement axioms (order preservation, convexity, and local monotonicity) for how the index should respond to changes in the underlying distribution. We obtain a unique class of functions satisfying all these properties, defined over any n-dimensional Euclidian space: the sum of a decreasing, isoelastic function of individual distances to the capital point of interest, with specific boundaries for the elasticity coefficient that depend on n. We apply our index to measure the concentration of population around capital cities across countries and US states, and also in US metropolitan areas. We show its advantages over alternative measures, and explore its correlations with many economic and political variables of interest.

A Centered Index of Spatial Concentration : Axiomatic Approach with an Application to Population and Capital Cities

We construct an axiomatic index of spatial concentration around a center or capital point of interest, a concept with wide applicability from urban economics, economic geography and trade, to political economy and industrial organization. We propose basic axioms (decomposability and monotonicity) and renement axioms (order preservation, convexity, and local monotonicity) for how the index should respond to changes in the underlying distribution. We obtain a unique class of functions satisfying all these properties, defined over any n-dimensional Euclidian space : the sum of a decreasing, isoelastic function of individual distances to the capital point of interest, with specifc boundaries for the elasticity coecient that depend on n. We apply our index to measure the concentration of population around capital cities across countries and US states, and also in US metropolitan areas. We show its advantages over alternative measures, and explore its correlations with many economic and political variables of interest.Spatial Concentration, Population Concentration, Capital Cities, Gravity, CRRA, Harmonic Functions, Axiomatics

Keeping Dictators Honest : the Role of Population Concentration

In order to explain the apparently paradoxical presence of acceptable governance in many non-democratic regimes, economists and political scientists have focused mostly on institutions acting as de facto checks and balances. In this paper, we propose that population plays a similar role in guaranteeing the quality of governance and redistribution. We argue and demonstrate with historical evidence that the concentration of population around the policy making center serves as an insurgency threat to a dictatorship, inducing it to yield to more redistribution and better governance. We bring this centered concept of population concentration to the data through the Centered Index of Spatial Concentration developed by Do & Campante (2008). The evidence supports our predictions : only in the sample of autocracies, population concentration around the capital city is positively associated with better governance and more redistribution (proxied by post-tax inequality), in OLS and IV regressions. Finally, we provide arguments to dismiss possible reverse causation as well as alternative, non-political economy explanations of such regularity,discuss the general applicability of our index and conclude with policy implications.Capital Cities, Gravity, Governance, Inequality, Redistribution, Population Concentration, Revolutions, Harmonic Functions, Axiomatics

A Centered Index of Spatial Concentration: Axiomatic Approach with an Application to Population and Capital Cities

We construct an axiomatic index of spatial concentration around a center or capital point of interest, a concept with wide applicability from urban economics, economic geography and trade, to political economy and industrial organization. We propose basic axioms (decomposability and monotonicity) and refinement axioms (order preservation, convexity, and local monotonicity) for how the index should respond to changes in the underlying distribution. We obtain a unique class of functions satisfying all these properties, defined over any n-dimensional Euclidian space: the sum of a decreasing, isoelastic function of individual distances to the capital point of interest, with specific boundaries for the elasticity coefficient that depend on n. We apply our index to measure the concentration of population around capital cities across countries and US states, and also in US metropolitan areas. We show its advantages over alternative measures, and explore its correlations with many economic and political variables of interest.Spatial Concentration, Population Concentration, Capital Cities, Gravity, CRRA, Harmonic Functions, Axiomatics.

Keeping Dictators Honest: the Role of Population Concentration

In order to explain the apparently paradoxical presence of acceptable governance in many non-democratic regimes, economists and political scientists have focused mostly on institutions acting as de facto checks and balances. In this paper, we propose that population plays a similar role in guaranteeing the quality of governance and redistribution. around the policy making center serves as an insurgency threat to a dictatorship, inducing it to yield to more redistribution and better governance. We bring this centered concept of population concentration to the data through the Centered Index of Spatial Concentration developed by Do & Campante (2008). The evidence supports our predictions: only in the sample of autocracies, population concentration around the capital city is positively associated with better governance and more redistribution (proxied by post-tax inequality), in OLS and IV regressions. Finally, we provide arguments to dismiss possible reverse causation as well as alternative, non-political economy explanations of such regularity, discuss the general applicability of our index and conclude with policy implications.Capital Cities, Gravity, Governance, Inequality, Redistribution, Population Concentration, Revolutions, Harmonic Functions, Axiomatics

Essays in International Finance and Banking

This dissertation studies the implications of financial intermediaries on international financial markets and bank lending. Chapter 1 explores the relevance of financial intermediaries for the pricing of foreign exchange. Recent theoretical work has highlighted the importance of financial intermediaries in rationalizing exchange rate movements and I empirically assess whether the theoretical predictions hold true in the data. I show that financial intermediary capital, a proxy for their health and/or risk-bearing capacity, provides an economic source of risk that helps explain both the carry trade and the cross-section of currency returns across a variety of strategies. Currencies that more positively co-move with intermediary capital provide high excess returns as intermediaries must be compensated for currency depreciation and losses at times when their capital erodes and their marginal utility is high. I demonstrate the dominance of intermediary-based asset pricing theories over consumption-based asset pricing theories, thus rationalizing theoretical models with a central role for financial intermediaries in asset markets. I then show that intermediary capital provides one economic source of risk embedded within the more dominant carry factor and serves as an orthogonal source of risk to the global risk embedded within the dollar factor. This paper thus serves as motivation for the further development of open economy models with financial intermediaries and a deeper understanding of the underlying economic sources of risks that underlie the factor structure of exchange rates. Chapter 2 studies the impact of US monetary policy shocks on international bank lending at the aggregate level. I ask whether country-banking systems that are more exposed to dollar funding decrease their cross-border lending by more than less exposed countries following contractionary US monetary policy announcements. For a given country borrower, I show that this is indeed the case as a 25 basis point increase in the previous quarter decreases cross-border lending supply growth by 4% more from a country-banking system that is 10% more reliant on dollar funding. This is mainly driven by decreases in cross-border lending to banks and the non-bank private sector, highlighting potential channels for the international transmission of US monetary policy. Chapter 3 assesses the effects of the US money market fund reform of October 2016 on syndicated bank lending and more broadly examines the relevance of dollar funding from US money market funds. I exploit the heterogeneity in foreign banks' reliance on US money market funds to uncover whether the decline in dollar funding attributed to the reform affected their lending. I find that although larger exposure to US money market dollar funding is attributed with larger declines following the reform, this did not pass through to dollar denominated lending, contrary to conventional wisdom. I find that banks substituted for some of the loss in dollar funding by increasing borrowing from US government money market funds, but this was not sufficient to offset the loss in funding. My results thus suggest that global banks have access to substitute sources of dollar funding that smoothed the loss in dollar funding on lending