A Sexually Unbalanced Model of Current Account Imbalances

Large savings and current account surpluses by China and other countries are said to be a contributor to the global current account imbalances and possibly to the recent global financial crisis. This paper proposes a theory of excess savings based on a major, albeit insufficiently recognized by macroeconomists, transformation in many of these societies, namely, a steady increase in the surplus of men relative to women. We construct an OLG model with two sexes and a desire to marry. We show conditions under which an intensified competition in the marriage market can induce men to raise their savings rate, and produce a rise in the aggregate savings and current account surplus. This effect is economically significant if the biological desire to have a partner of the opposite sex is strong. A calibration of the model suggests that this factor could generate economically significant current account responses, or more than 1/2 of the actual current account imbalances observed in the data.

Four Essays in International Economics

Developing countries are more likely than developed countries to pursue a fixed exchange rate regime, yet this pattern is not directly predicted by conventional theories of optimum currency area. The first Chapter proposes a new theory of exchange rate regime choice---different from the policy maker's credibility argument in the "fear of floating" theory---that stresses the roles of both stage of economic development and labor market frictions. In general, for a typical developing country with low labor productivity and high labor market frictions, a fixed exchange rate regime would yield a higher level of welfare than a floating regime as the former generates more export revenue. The opposite is true for a country with high labor productivity or a more flexible labor market. We provide empirical evidence that is consistent with the key predictions of the theory. The second chapter investigates some new hypothesis of the high savings rates and current account surpluses in countries like China. Large savings and current account surpluses by China and other countries are said to be a contributor to the global current account imbalances. In this chapter, we propose a theory of excess savings based on a major transformation in many of these societies, namely, a steady increase in the surplus of men relative to women. We construct an OLG model with two sexes and a desire to marry. We show conditions under which an intensified competition in the marriage market can induce men to raise their savings rate, and produce a rise in both the aggregate savings and current account surplus. This effect is economically significant if the biological desire to have a partner of the opposite sex is strong. A calibration of the model suggests that this factor could generate economically significant current account responses, or between one third and a half of the actual current account imbalances observed in the data. In the third chapter, we analyze how the social structual change--the rise in the sex ratios--may affect the real exchange rate. We find that a rise in the sex ratio, in theory, can simultaneously generate a decline in the real exchange rate (RER) and a rise in the current account surplus. We demonstrate this logic through both a savings channel and an effective labor supply channel. In this model, a low RER is not a cause of the current account surplus, nor is it a consequence of currency manipulations. Empirically, those economies with a high sex ratio tend to have a low real exchange rate, beyond what can be explained by the Balassa-Samuelson effect, financial underdevelopment, dependence ratio, and exchange rate regime classifications. Once these factors are accounted for, the Chinese real exchange rate is estimated to be undervalued by only a relatively trivial amount. The last chapter studies the entrepreneurial activities in countries like China who have experienced a severe rise in the pre-marriage age cohort's sex ratio. In this chapter, we present a theoretical model and find that, when the sex ratio is large, a rise in the sex ratio will induce men to take the risk and pursue the high returns, which leads to an increase in the entrepreneurial activities in the economy. In an open economy model with two sectors, a risky sector and a risk free sector, we show that a country with a very skewed sex ratio is more likely to have a comparative advantage in the risky sectors. We provide empirical evidence that is consistent with the theoretical predictions

Geopolitical risks, oil price shocks and inflation: Evidence from a TVP–SV–VAR approach

Employing a TVP–SV–VAR model, this study investigates the dynamic effects of geopolitical risks, oil price shocks, and inflation from January 2000 to July 2022 in China, the US, and 27 European countries. The findings show that the relationship between geopolitical risks, oil prices and inflation changes dynamically over time. Geopolitical risks exert a more substantial influence on industrial demand for oil production than on oil supply disruptions, and therefore, they do not result in a sustained rise in oil prices. However, the heightened inflation observed since the COVID-19 pandemic stems from dwindling oil supplies, elevated oil prices, and an imbalance between industrial production and consumer demand driven by escalating geopolitical risks. Our findings suggest that governments should formulate and implement comprehensive and multifaceted policy measures to address the intricate interplay among geopolitical risks, fluctuations in oil prices, and the dynamics of inflation

Influence of Sustained Learning on Knowledge Transferability in Distance Learning

Through the network teaching platform, distance teaching provides relevant distance technical support services for adult education, and evaluates teaching results of the teaching method, relying on modern network technology and integrating educational resources. It has become a consistent pursuit in the field of education to change the learning mode of distance learners, to cultivate higher-order sustained thinking ability, and to promote sustained learning so that learners’ knowledge transferability becomes more obvious. The results show that Cronbach’s á coefficient and KMO values of the questionnaire are 0.879 and 0.850, indicating that the reliability and validity of the questionnaire are good. Sustained learning, which consists of learning engagement, learning motivation and learning strategy, can significantly improve knowledge transferability. Distance learning duration and age of learners have significant differences in knowledge transferability. Gender and specialty have no significant difference in knowledge transferability. Conclusions have very important reference value for improving sustained learning effect of learners in distance teaching, promoting the occurrence of learners’ multiple interaction behaviors in distance teaching, and realizing cooperative knowledge construction of learners in distance teaching

Carbon dioxide emissions and Chinese OFDI: From the perspective of carbon neutrality targets and environmental management of home country

Studies investigating the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and the environment have focused predominantly on the effects of FDI on host country environments with less attention paid to the impact on home countries. This study turns its attention to the effects of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) on a home country's carbon dioxide emissions. We use three paths through which OFDI can affect the carbon dioxide emissions of a home country, including economic scale, technology level, and industry composition effects. Using a simultaneous equation model and panel data of 30 provinces of China for the period of 2003–2017, this study finds that OFDI is positively related to the carbon dioxide emissions of the home country, though the effects of emissions have weakened dynamically due the technology developments brought about by OFDI. More specifically, we find that both ‘pollution haven’ and ‘pollution halo’ effects existing in three different paths. The paths of industry composition and technology level show negative effects on carbon dioxide emissions, whilst the path of economic scale is positive. OFDI is also found to be negatively related to the carbon intensity of the home country

Does the global fireman inadvertently add fuel to the fire? New evidence from institutional investors' response to IMF program announcements

Fighting global financial crises is a primary charge of the IMF. Yet it has often been criticized to have hindered rather than helped the recovery of many countries in a crisis by demanding policy changes that may not be appropriate for them in that particular moment. Such actions would tend to damage investor confidence. Using monthly data on investment in 94 developing countries by 168 institutional investors during 1996-2005, this paper re-assesses this important question. We find that the IMF has typically restored rather than reduced investor confidence.Capital flows Mutual funds IMF

Study on combine harvester speed control based on optimum threshing power consumption model

Conference Name:2011 3rd International Conference on Mechanical and Electronics Engineering, ICMEE 2011. Conference Address: Hefei, China. Time:September 23, 2011 - September 25, 2011.Hefei University of TechnologyCombine harvester have to be operated in a wide range of field condition which may induce varying feeding rate. Forward speed is a main variable to control the feeding rate of combine harvester for high efficiency. In this study a control strategy based on optimum threshing power consumption model was developed and integrated into a speed control system for combine harvester automation. A conventional self-propelled combine harvester (Xinjiang-II) was equipped with multiple sensors to collect online information, including forward speed, threshing drum torque and speed. Forward speed was then adjusted by an electric-hydraulic unit based on designed PID controller to achieve an optimum range of threshing power consumption. Field test was conducted to evaluate the performance of the controller under variable feeding rate condition. From obtained results, the controller can improve the efficiency of tested machine during field operation. 漏 (2012) Trans Tech Publications, Switzerland