The estimation and projection package age-sex model and the r-hybrid model: new tools for estimating HIV incidence trends in sub-Saharan Africa.

OBJECTIVES: Improve models for estimating HIV epidemic trends in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). DESIGN: Mathematical epidemic model fit to national HIV survey and ANC sentinel surveillance (ANC-SS) data. METHODS: We modified EPP to incorporate age and sex stratification (EPP-ASM) to more accurately capture the shifting demographics of maturing HIV epidemics. Secondly, we developed a new functional form for the HIV transmission rate, termed 'r-hybrid', which combines a four-parameter logistic function for the initial epidemic growth, peak, and decline followed by a first-order random walk for recent trends after epidemic stabilization. We fitted the r-hybrid model along with previously developed r-spline and r-trend models to HIV prevalence data from household surveys and ANC-SS in 177 regions in 34 SSA countries. We used leave-one-out cross validation with household survey HIV prevalence to compare model predictions. RESULTS: The r-hybrid and r-spline models typically provided similar HIV prevalence trends, but sometimes qualitatively different assessments of recent incidence trends because of different structural assumptions about the HIV transmission rate. The r-hybrid model had the lowest average continuous ranked probability score, indicating the best model predictions. Coverage of 95% posterior predictive intervals was 91.5% for the r-hybrid model, versus 87.2 and 85.5% for r-spline and r-trend, respectively. CONCLUSION: The EPP-ASM and r-hybrid models improve consistency of EPP and Spectrum, improve the epidemiological assumptions underpinning recent HIV incidence estimates, and improve estimates and short-term projections of HIV prevalence trends. Countries that use general population survey and ANC-SS data to estimate HIV epidemic trends should consider using these tools

Exhaled nitric oxide and clinical phenotypes of childhood asthma

Whether exhaled NO helps to identify a specific phenotype of asthmatic patients remains debated. Our aims were to evaluate whether exhaled NO (FENO0.05) is independently associated (1) with underlying pathophysiological characteristics of asthma such as airway tone (bronchodilator response) and airway inflammation (inhaled corticosteroid [ICS]-dependant inflammation), and (2) with clinical phenotypes of asthma

Exhaled nitric oxide and clinical phenotypes of childhood asthma

Whether exhaled NO helps to identify a specific phenotype of asthmatic patients remains debated. Our aims were to evaluate whether exhaled NO (FENO0.05) is independently associated (1) with underlying pathophysiological characteristics of asthma such as airway tone (bronchodilator response) and airway inflammation (inhaled corticosteroid [ICS]-dependant inflammation), and (2) with clinical phenotypes of asthma

Monitoring one-electron photo-oxidation of guanine in DNA crystals using ultrafast infrared spectroscopy

To understand the molecular origins of diseases caused by ultraviolet and visible light, and also to develop photodynamic therapy, it is important to resolve the mechanism of photoinduced DNA damage. Damage to DNA bound to a photosensitizer molecule frequently proceeds by one-electron photo-oxidation of guanine, but the precise dynamics of this process are sensitive to the location and the orientation of the photosensitizer, which are very difficult to define in solution. To overcome this, ultrafast time-resolved infrared (TRIR) spectroscopy was performed on photoexcited ruthenium polypyridyl–DNA crystals, the atomic structure of which was determined by X-ray crystallography. By combining the X-ray and TRIR data we are able to define both the geometry of the reaction site and the rates of individual steps in a reversible photoinduced electron-transfer process. This allows us to propose an individual guanine as the reaction site and, intriguingly, reveals that the dynamics in the crystal state are quite similar to those observed in the solvent medium

Fire Ant Decapitating Fly Cooperative Release Programs (1994–2008): Two Pseudacteon Species, P. tricuspis and P. curvatus, Rapidly Expand Across Imported Fire Ant Populations in the Southeastern United States

Natural enemies of the imported fire ants, Solenopsis invicta Buren S. richteri Forel (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), and their hybrid, include a suite of more than 20 fire ant decapitating phorid flies from South America in the genus Pseudacteon. Over the past 12 years, many researchers and associates have cooperated in introducing several species as classical or self-sustaining biological control agents in the United States. As a result, two species of flies, Pseudacteon tricuspis Borgmeier and P. curvatus Borgmeier (Diptera: Phoridae), are well established across large areas of the southeastern United States. Whereas many researchers have published local and state information about the establishment and spread of these flies, here distribution data from both published and unpublished sources has been compiled for the entire United States with the goal of presenting confirmed and probable distributions as of the fall of 2008. Documented rates of expansion were also used to predict the distribution of these flies three years later in the fall of 2011. In the fall of 2008, eleven years after the first successful release, we estimate that P. tricuspis covered about 50% of the fire ant quarantined area and that it will occur in almost 65% of the quarantine area by 2011. Complete coverage of the fire ant quarantined area will be delayed or limited by this species' slow rate of spread and frequent failure to establish in more northerly portions of the fire ant range and also, perhaps, by its preference for red imported fire ants (S. invicta). Eight years after the first successful release of P. curvatus, two biotypes of this species (one biotype occurring predominantly in the black and hybrid imported fire ants and the other occurring in red imported fire ants) covered almost 60% of the fire ant quarantined area. We estimate these two biotypes will cover almost 90% of the quarantine area by 2011 and 100% by 2012 or 2013. Strategic selection of several distributional gaps for future releases will accelerate complete coverage of quarantine areas. However, some gaps may be best used for the release of additional species of decapitating flies because establishment rates may be higher in areas without competing species

Gender Nonconformity During Adolescence:Links with Stigma, Sexual Minority Status, and Psychosocial Outcomes

Both gender nonconformity and sexual minority status during adolescence are associated with elevated levels of victimization and harassment, experiences that have serious consequences for adolescent psychosocial outcomes. While gender nonconformity and sexual minority status reflect separate constructs, they are associated because (1) sexual minority youth report higher levels of gender nonconformity and (2) gender nonconformity is frequently used to attribute sexual minority status by others. Following from classic stigma theory, the current chapter focuses on the role of gender nonconformity in explaining variation in social exclusion and victimization among both sexual minority and sexual majority youth. Of particular interest is the potential for gender nonconformity to mediate or moderate the association between sexual minority status and individual mental health and wellbeing outcomes. Gender differences will also be discussed, focusing on differences between girls and boys in the links between sexual minority status, gender nonconformity, experiences of victimization, and negative psychosocial outcomes. Additionally, the emerging literature on conceptualizing gender nonconformity among trans and non-binary youth will be addressed. Finally, the current chapter will finish with a discussion of how and why gender nonconformity must be taken into consideration in the development of programs aimed at reducing homophobia among adolescent populations

Effects of Vegetated Field Borders on Arthropods in Cotton Fields in Eastern North Carolina

The influence, if any, of 5m wide, feral, herbaceous field borders on pest and beneficial arthropods in commercial cotton, Gossypium hirsutum (L.) (Malvales: Malvaceae), fields was measured through a variety of sampling techniques over three years. In each year, 5 fields with managed, feral vegetation borders and five fields without such borders were examined. Sampling was stratified from the field border or edge in each field in an attempt to elucidate any edge effects that might have occurred. Early season thrips populations appeared to be unaffected by the presence of a border. Pitfall sampling disclosed no differences in ground-dwelling predaceous arthropods but did detect increased populations of crickets around fields with borders. Cotton aphid (Aphis gossypii Glover) (Hemiptera: Aphididae) populations were too low during the study to adequately assess border effects. Heliothines, Heliothis virescens (F.) and Helicoverpa zea (Boddie) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), egg numbers and damage rates were largely unaffected by the presence or absence of a border, although in one instance egg numbers were significantly lower in fields with borders. Overall, foliage-dwelling predaceous arthropods were somewhat more abundant in fields with borders than in fields without borders. Tarnished plant bugs, Lygus lineolaris (Palisot de Beauvois) (Heteroptera: Miridae) were significantly more abundant in fields with borders, but stink bugs, Acrosternum hilare (Say), and Euschistus servus (Say) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) numbers appeared to be largely unaffected by border treatment. Few taxa clearly exhibited distributional edge effects relative to the presence or absence of border vegetation. Field borders like those examined in this study likely will have little impact on insect pest management in cotton under current insect management regimens