Football and Federal Elections: Real World Statistics in Action

Cramer and Jackson (2006, 2007) report a sizable association between the home game winner of the most recent Washington Redskins professional football game and the presidential election outcome. With only two exceptions, the events were perfectly linked since the 1936 inception of the football franchise. This paper offers an update to those results, now incorporating the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election results. This paper will offer instructors a useful vehicle to understanding correlations, to further show that correlation is not causation, but more importantly to illustrate that robust phenomena in the world may have no underlying cause. Furthermore, we believe that the relation between these two events represents a shortcoming in post-hoc reasoning, by trying to explain events after they have been observed

Framework and baseline examination of the German National Cohort (NAKO)

The German National Cohort (NAKO) is a multidisciplinary, population-based prospective cohort study that aims to investigate the causes of widespread diseases, identify risk factors and improve early detection and prevention of disease. Specifically, NAKO is designed to identify novel and better characterize established risk and protection factors for the development of cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes, neurodegenerative and psychiatric diseases, musculoskeletal diseases, respiratory and infectious diseases in a random sample of the general population. Between 2014 and 2019, a total of 205,415 men and women aged 19–74 years were recruited and examined in 18 study centres in Germany. The baseline assessment included a face-to-face interview, self-administered questionnaires and a wide range of biomedical examinations. Biomaterials were collected from all participants including serum, EDTA plasma, buffy coats, RNA and erythrocytes, urine, saliva, nasal swabs and stool. In 56,971 participants, an intensified examination programme was implemented. Whole-body 3T magnetic resonance imaging was performed in 30,861 participants on dedicated scanners. NAKO collects follow-up information on incident diseases through a combination of active follow-up using self-report via written questionnaires at 2–3 year intervals and passive follow-up via record linkages. All study participants are invited for re-examinations at the study centres in 4–5 year intervals. Thereby, longitudinal information on changes in risk factor profiles and in vascular, cardiac, metabolic, neurocognitive, pulmonary and sensory function is collected. NAKO is a major resource for population-based epidemiology to identify new and tailored strategies for early detection, prediction, prevention and treatment of major diseases for the next 30 years. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10654-022-00890-5

Novel Antineuronal Autoantibodies With Somatodendritic Staining Pattern in a Patient With Autoimmune Psychosis

Background Autoimmune encephalitis, such as anti-NMDA-receptor encephalitis, typically presenting with subacute onset of neuropsychiatric symptoms, can be detected by antineuronal autoantibodies or inflammatory changes in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), as well as pathological alterations in electroencephalography (EEG), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), or [18F]fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG PET). For patients with predominant psychotic symptoms, the term autoimmune psychosis was proposed. Here, the authors present the case of a patient with probable autoimmune psychosis associated with unknown antineuronal antibodies. Case Presentation A 18-year-old male patient with preexisting autism spectrum disorder developed a severe catatonic syndrome over 2.5 years. The MRI showed normal findings, the EEG depicted intermittent slowing, and the independent component analyses showed additional sharp spikes. However, FDG PET, the basic laboratory analysis and testing of the serum/CSF for well-characterized antineuronal autoantibodies were unsuspicious. The serum and CSF “tissue-based assay” using indirect immunofluorescence on unfixed murine brain tissue revealed antineuronal autoantibodies against an unknown epitope in granule cells in the cerebellum and to neurites of hippocampal interneurons with a somatodendritic staining pattern. The immunosuppressive treatment with high-dose glucocorticoids, plasma exchange, and rituximab led to partial improvement. Conclusion The patient probably suffered from autoantibody-associated autoimmune psychosis. The special features of the case were that the patient (1) presented with mostly inconspicuous basic diagnostics, except for the altered EEG in combination with the detection of CSF autoantibodies directed against a currently unknown epitope, (2) experienced an isolated and long-lasting psychotic course, and (3) had pre-existing autism spectrum disorder. The detection of a probable autoimmune pathophysiology in such cases seems important, as it offers new and more causal immunosuppressive treatment alternatives

Cerebrospinal fluid findings in patients with myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein (MOG) antibodies, part 2: results from 108 lumbar punctures in 80 pediatric patients

BACKGROUND: New-generation, cell-based assays have demonstrated a robust association of serum autoantibodies to full-length human myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein (MOG-IgG) with (mostly recurrent) optic neuritis, myelitis, and brainstem encephalitis, as well as with neuromyelitis optica (NMO)-like or acute-disseminated encephalomyelitis (ADEM)-like presentations. However, only limited data are yet available on cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) findings in MOG-IgG-associated encephalomyelitis (MOG-EM; also termed MOG antibody-associated disease, MOGAD). OBJECTIVE: To describe systematically the CSF profile in children with MOG-EM. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Cytological and biochemical findings (including white cell counts [WCC] and differentiation; frequency and patterns of oligoclonal bands; IgG/IgM/IgA and albumin concentrations and CSF/serum ratios; intrathecal IgG/IgM/IgA fractions; locally produced IgG/IgM/IgA concentrations; immunoglobulin class patterns; IgG/IgA/IgM reibergrams; Link index; measles/rubella/zoster [MRZ] reaction; other anti-viral and anti-bacterial antibody indices; CSF total protein; CSF L-lactate) from 108 lumbar punctures in 80 pediatric patients of mainly Caucasian descent with MOG-EM were analyzed retrospectively. RESULTS: Most strikingly, CSF-restricted oligoclonal IgG bands, a hallmark of multiple sclerosis (MS), were absent in 89% of samples (N = 96), and the MRZ reaction, the most specific laboratory marker of MS known so far, in 100% (N = 29). If present at all, intrathecal IgG synthesis was low, often transient and mostly restricted to acute attacks. Intrathecal IgM synthesis was present in 21% and exclusively detectable during acute attacks. CSF WCC were elevated in 54% of samples (median 40 cells/μl; range 6-256; mostly lymphocytes and monocytes; > 100/μl in 11%). Neutrophils were present in 71% of samples; eosinophils, activated lymphocytes, and plasma cells were seen only rarely (all < 7%). Blood-CSF barrier dysfunction (as indicated by an elevated albumin CSF/serum ratio) was present in 46% of all samples (N = 79) and at least once in 48% of all patients (N = 67) tested. CSF alterations were significantly more frequent and/or more pronounced in patients with acute spinal cord or brain disease than in patients with acute ON and varied strongly depending on attack severity. CSF L-lactate levels correlated significantly with the spinal cord lesions load (measured in vertebral segments) in patients with acute myelitis (p = 0.0099). An analysis of pooled data from the pediatric and the adult cohort showed a significant relationship of QAlb (p < 0.0005), CST TP (p < 0.0001), and CSF L-lactate (p < 0.0003) during acute attacks with age. CONCLUSION: MOG-IgG-associated EM in children is characterized by CSF features that are distinct from those in MS. With regard to most parameters, no marked differences between the pediatric cohort and the adult cohort analyzed in Part 1 were noted. Our findings are important for the differential diagnosis of pediatric MS and MOG-EM and add to the understanding of the immunopathogenesis of this newly described autoimmune disease

Temporal dynamics of MOG antibodies in children with acquired demyelinating syndrome

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The spectrum of myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein (MOG) antibody–associated disorder (MOGAD) comprises monophasic diseases such as acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (ADEM), optic neuritis (ON), and transverse myelitis and relapsing courses of these presentations. Persistently high MOG antibodies (MOG immunoglobulin G [IgG]) are found in patients with a relapsing disease course. Prognostic factors to determine the clinical course of children with a first MOGAD are still lacking. The objective of the study is to assess the clinical and laboratory prognostic parameters for a risk of relapse and the temporal dynamics of MOG‐IgG titers in children with MOGAD in correlation with clinical presentation and disease course. METHODS: In this prospective multicenter hospital-based study, children with a first demyelinating attack and complete data set comprising clinical and radiologic findings, MOG-IgG titer at onset, and clinical and serologic follow-up data were included. Serum samples were analyzed by live cell-based assay, and a titer level of ≥1:160 was classified as MOG-IgG–positive. RESULTS: One hundred sixteen children (f:m = 57:59) with MOGAD were included and initially diagnosed with ADEM (n = 59), unilateral ON (n = 12), bilateral ON (n = 16), myelitis (n = 6), neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (n = 8) or encephalitis (n = 6). The median follow-up time was 3 years in monophasic and 5 years in relapsing patients. There was no significant association between disease course and MOG-IgG titers at onset, sex, age at presentation, or clinical phenotype. Seroconversion to MOG-IgG–negative within 2 years of the initial event showed a significant risk reduction for a relapsing disease course. Forty-two/one hundred sixteen patients (monophasic n = 26, relapsing n = 16) had serial MOG-IgG testing in years 1 and 2 after the initial event. In contrast to relapsing patients, monophasic patients showed a significant decrease of MOG-IgG titers during the first and second years, often with seroconversion to negative titers. During the follow-up, MOG-IgG titers were persistently higher in relapsing than in monophasic patients. Decrease in MOG-IgG of ≥3 dilution steps after the first and second years was shown to be associated with a decreased risk of relapses. In our cohort, no patient experienced a relapse after seroconversion to MOG-IgG–negative. DISCUSSION: In this study, patients with declining MOG-IgG titers, particularly those with seroconversion to MOG-IgG–negative, are shown to have a significantly reduced relapse risk

Framework and baseline examination of the German National Cohort (NAKO)

The German National Cohort (NAKO) is a multidisciplinary, population-based prospective cohort study that aims to investigate the causes of widespread diseases, identify risk factors and improve early detection and prevention of disease. Specifically, NAKO is designed to identify novel and better characterize established risk and protection factors for the development of cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes, neurodegenerative and psychiatric diseases, musculoskeletal diseases, respiratory and infectious diseases in a random sample of the general population. Between 2014 and 2019, a total of 205,415 men and women aged 19–74 years were recruited and examined in 18 study centres in Germany. The baseline assessment included a face-to-face interview, self-administered questionnaires and a wide range of biomedical examinations. Biomaterials were collected from all participants including serum, EDTA plasma, buffy coats, RNA and erythrocytes, urine, saliva, nasal swabs and stool. In 56,971 participants, an intensified examination programme was implemented. Whole-body 3T magnetic resonance imaging was performed in 30,861 participants on dedicated scanners. NAKO collects follow-up information on incident diseases through a combination of active follow-up using self-report via written questionnaires at 2–3 year intervals and passive follow-up via record linkages. All study participants are invited for re-examinations at the study centres in 4–5 year intervals. Thereby, longitudinal information on changes in risk factor profiles and in vascular, cardiac, metabolic, neurocognitive, pulmonary and sensory function is collected. NAKO is a major resource for population-based epidemiology to identify new and tailored strategies for early detection, prediction, prevention and treatment of major diseases for the next 30 years