Pharmacogenetic GWAS meta-analysis of LDL cholesterol response to statins

Cardiolog

NT -pro BNP as a Mediator of the Racial Difference in Incident Atrial Fibrillation and Heart Failure.

Background Blacks harbor more cardiovascular risk factors than whites, but experience less atrial fibrillation ( AF ). Conversely, whites may have a lower risk of heart failure ( CHF ). N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide ( NT -pro BNP) levels are higher in whites, predict incident AF , and have diuretic effects in the setting of increased ventricular diastolic pressures, potentially providing a unifying explanation for these racial differences. Methods and Results We used data from the CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study) to determine the degree to which baseline NT -pro BNP levels mediate the relationships between race and incident AF and CHF by comparing beta estimates between models with and without NT -pro BNP . The ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) study was used to assess reproducibility. Among 4731 CHS (770 black) and 12 418 ARIC (3091 black) participants, there were 1277 and 1253 incident AF events, respectively. Whites had higher baseline NT -pro BNP ( CHS : 40% higher than blacks; 95% CI , 29-53; ARIC : 39% higher; 95% CI , 33-46) and had a greater risk of incident AF compared with blacks ( CHS : adjusted hazard ratio, 1.60; 95% CI , 1.31-1.93; ARIC : hazard ratio, 1.93; 95% CI , 1.57-2.27). NT -pro BNP levels explained a significant proportion of the racial difference in AF risk ( CHS : 36.2%; 95% CI , 23.2-69.2%; ARIC : 24.6%; 95% CI , 14.8-39.6%). Contrary to our hypothesis, given an increased risk of CHF among whites in CHS (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.20; 95% CI , 1.05-1.47) and the absence of a significant association between race and CHF in ARIC (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.07; 95% CI , 0.94-1.23), CHF -related mediation analyses were not performed. Conclusions A substantial portion of the relationship between race and AF was statistically explained by baseline NT -pro BNP levels. No consistent relationship between race and CHF was observed

Racial/ethnic heterogeneity in associations of blood pressure and incident cardiovascular disease by functional status in a prospective cohort: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

OBJECTIVES:Research has demonstrated that the association between high blood pressure and outcomes is attenuated among older adults with functional limitations, compared with healthier elders. However, it is not known whether these patterns vary by racial/ethnic group. We evaluated race/ethnicity-specific patterns of effect modification in the association between blood pressure and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) by functional status. SETTING:We used data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (2002-2004, with an average of 8.8 years of follow-up for incident CVD). We assessed effect modification of systolic blood pressure and cardiovascular outcomes by self-reported physical limitations and by age. PARTICIPANTS:The study included 6117 participants (aged 46 to 87; 40% white, 27% black, 22% Hispanic and 12% Chinese) who did not have CVD at the second study examination (when self-reported physical limitations were assessed). OUTCOME MEASURES:Incident CVD was defined as an incident myocardial infarction, coronary revascularisation, resuscitated cardiac arrest, angina, stroke (fatal or non-fatal) or death from CVD. RESULTS:We observed weaker associations between systolic blood pressure (SBP) and CVD among white adults with physical limitations (incident rate ratio (IRR) per 10 mm Hg higher SBP: 1.09 (95% CI 0.99 to 1.20)) than those without physical limitations (IRR 1.29 (1.19, 1.40); P value for interaction <0.01). We found a similar pattern among black adults. Poor precision among the estimates for Hispanic or Chinese participants limited the findings in these groups. The attenuated associations were consistent across both multiplicative and additive scales, though physical limitations showed clearer patterns than age on an additive scale. CONCLUSION:Attenuated associations between high blood pressure and incident CVD were observed for blacks and whites with poor function, though small sample sizes remain a limitation for identifying differences among Hispanic or Chinese participants. Identifying the characteristics that distinguish those in whom higher SBP is associated with less risk of morbidity or mortality may inform our understanding of the consequences of hypertension among older adults

Ectopy on a single 12‐lead ECG, incident cardiac myopathy, and death in the community

BackgroundAtrial fibrillation and heart failure are 2 of the most common diseases, yet ready means to identify individuals at risk are lacking. The 12-lead ECG is one of the most accessible tests in medicine. Our objective was to determine whether a premature atrial contraction observed on a standard 12-lead ECG would predict atrial fibrillation and mortality and whether a premature ventricular contraction would predict heart failure and mortality.Methods and resultsWe utilized the CHS (Cardiovascular Health) Study, which followed 5577 participants for a median of 12 years, as the primary cohort. The ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study), the replication cohort, captured data from 15 792 participants over a median of 22 years. In the CHS, multivariable analyses revealed that a baseline 12-lead ECG premature atrial contraction predicted a 60% increased risk of atrial fibrillation (hazard ratio, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.3-2.0; P<0.001) and a premature ventricular contraction predicted a 30% increased risk of heart failure (hazard ratio, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.0-1.6; P=0.021). In the negative control analyses, neither predicted incident myocardial infarction. A premature atrial contraction was associated with a 30% increased risk of death (hazard ratio, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1-1.5; P=0.008) and a premature ventricular contraction was associated with a 20% increased risk of death (hazard ratio, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.0-1.3; P=0.044). Similarly statistically significant results for each analysis were also observed in ARIC.ConclusionsBased on a single standard ECG, a premature atrial contraction predicted incident atrial fibrillation and death and a premature ventricular contraction predicted incident heart failure and death, suggesting that this commonly used test may predict future disease

Incorporating Death into Health-Related Variables in Longitudinal Studies

Background: The aging process can be described as the change in health-related variables over time. Unfortunately, simple graphs of available data may be misleading if some people die, since they may confuse patterns of mortality with patterns of change in health. Methods have been proposed to incorporate death into self-rated health (excellent to poor) and the SF-36 profile scores, but not for other variables. Objectives: (1) To incorporate death into the following variables: ADLs, IADLs, mini-mental state examination, depressive symptoms, body mass index (BMI), blocks walked per week, bed days, hospitalization, systolic blood pressure, and the timed walk. (2) To discuss variables and settings for which this approach is helpful. (3) To use the approach to illustrate the effect of stroke on these variables. Setting: The Cardiovascular Health Study of 5,888 older adults, studied up to nine years. Mean age was 73 at baseline, and 658 had an incident stroke during follow-up. Methods: We categorized each variable, added a category for death, and examined stacked bar graphs over time. We dichotomized each variable into healthy/not healthy, assigning dead to the “not healthy” category, and calculated the probability of being healthy one year later, with the deaths set to zero. Trajectories for the 11 variables in the three years before and after an incident stroke were tabled and plotted. Other transformations were derived and discussed. Results: Graphs that did not account for death were too optimistic. Stroke had an adverse effect on all variables but systolic blood pressure (which improved) and BMI (which showed little change). The short-term effect of stroke was greatest on hospitalization, self-rated health, and IADLs. Alternative coding provided slightly different results. Conclusions: Categories or values for death can be added to a variety of longitudinal variables, permitting a description of an entire cohort’s trajectory over time. These transformations provide an additional approach for longitudinal studies of the health of older adults where some people die

Net Reclassification Indices for Evaluating Risk Prediction Instruments: A Critical Review

Background Net Reclassification Indices (NRI) have recently become popular statistics for measuring the prediction increment of new biomarkers. Methods In this review, we examine the various types of NRI statistics and their correct interpretations. We evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of the NRI approach. For pre-defined risk categories, we relate NRI to existing measures of the prediction increment. We also consider statistical methodology for constructing confidence intervals for NRI statistics and evaluate the merits of NRI-based hypothesis testing. Conclusions Investigators using NRI statistics should report them separately for events (cases) and nonevents (controls). When there are two risk categories, the NRI components are the same as the changes in the true and false positive rates. We advocate use of true and false positive rates and suggest it is more useful for investigators to retain the existing, descriptive terms. When there are three or more risk categories, we recommend against NRI statistics because they do not adequately account for clinically important differences in movements among risk categories. The category-free NRI is a new descriptive device designed to avoid pre-defined risk categories. The category-free NRI suffers from many of the same problems as other measures such as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. In addition, the category-free NRI can mislead investigators by overstating the incremental value of a biomarker, even in independent validation data. When investigators want to test a null hypothesis of no prediction increment, the well-established tests for coefficients in the regression model are superior to the NRI. If investigators want to use NRI measures, their confidence intervals should be calculated using bootstrap methods rather than published variance formulas. The preferred single-number summary of the prediction increment is the improvement in the Net Benefit

Genetically Determined Plasma Lipid Levels and Risk of Diabetic Retinopathy: A Mendelian Randomization Study.

Results from observational studies examining dyslipidemia as a risk factor for diabetic retinopathy (DR) have been inconsistent. We evaluated the causal relationship between plasma lipids and DR using a Mendelian randomization approach. We pooled genome-wide association studies summary statistics from 18 studies for two DR phenotypes: any DR (N = 2,969 case and 4,096 control subjects) and severe DR (N = 1,277 case and 3,980 control subjects). Previously identified lipid-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms served as instrumental variables. Meta-analysis to combine the Mendelian randomization estimates from different cohorts was conducted. There was no statistically significant change in odds ratios of having any DR or severe DR for any of the lipid fractions in the primary analysis that used single nucleotide polymorphisms that did not have a pleiotropic effect on another lipid fraction. Similarly, there was no significant association in the Caucasian and Chinese subgroup analyses. This study did not show evidence of a causal role of the four lipid fractions on DR. However, the study had limited power to detect odds ratios less than 1.23 per SD in genetically induced increase in plasma lipid levels, thus we cannot exclude that causal relationships with more modest effect sizes exist