Coordinated Population Forecast for Lane County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065

Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Lane County’s total population has grown steadily since 2000; with an average annual growth rate of just under one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Veneta and Creswell posted the highest average annual growth rates at 5.2 and 3.1 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Lane County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the direct result of substantial net inmigration and in the early years, natural increase. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to slower growth in births. The more rapid growth in deaths relative to that of births caused natural increase—the difference between births and deaths—to shrink between 2007 and 2012. Since 2012, net in-migration has outpaced natural increase, driving rising population growth rates. Total population in Lane County as a whole as well as within many of its sub-areas is forecast to grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035), relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to declining natural increase (births minus deaths). As natural increase declines and eventually becomes natural decrease, population growth is expected to become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Lane County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 67,300 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by nearly 152,400 over the entire 50 year forecast period (2015-2065). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period

Coordinated Population Forecast for Deschutes County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065

Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Deschutes County’s total population has grown rapidly since 2000, with an average annual growth rate of more than three percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); in addition, most of its sub-areas experienced even more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Sisters and La Pine posted the highest average annual growth rates at 7.8 and 6.3 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Deschutes County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the direct result of substantial net inmigration and steady natural increase (i.e., more births than deaths). Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to slower growth in births. The more rapid growth in deaths relative to that of births caused natural increase—the difference between births and deaths—to shrink between 2007 and 2014. While net in-migration and steady natural increase contributed to population growth during the early and middle years of the last decade, it is clear that in more recent years (i.e., 2010 to 2014) net inmigration played the most prominent role in population growth. Total population in Deschutes County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas is forecast to grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035), relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Deschutes County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 78,000 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by more than 186,000 over the entire 50 year forecast period (2015-2065). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period

MCTS/EA hybrid GVGAI players and game difficulty estimation

© 2016 IEEE. In the General Video Game Playing competitions of the last years, Monte-Carlo tree search as well as Evolutionary Algorithm based controllers have been successful. However, both approaches have certain weaknesses, suggesting that certain hybrids could outperform both. We envision and experimentally compare several types of hybrids of two basic approaches, as well as some possible extensions. In order to achieve a better understanding of the games in the competition and the strength and weaknesses of different controllers, we also propose and apply a novel game difficulty estimation scheme based on several observable game characteristics

Coordinated Population Forecast for Josephine County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065

Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Josephine County’s total population as a whole has grown slowly since 2000; with an average annual growth rate of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Grants Pass and Cave Junction posted average annual growth rates at 2.1 and 1.6 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Josephine County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of substantial net inmigration. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to slow growth in the number of births. The growing number of deaths and shrinking number of births led to natural decrease—more deaths than births—in every year from 2000 to 2014. While net in-migration outweighed natural decrease during the early and middle years of the last decade, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the later years— bringing population decline in 2012. Since 2012 net in-migration has increased, driving population increase for 2013 and 2014. Total population in Josephine County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035) relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs over time population growth is expected to become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Josephine County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 16,000 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by nearly 38,000 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). Subareas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period

Coordinated Population Forecast for Union County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

Union County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with an average annual growth rate of half percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). However, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Summerville posted the highest average annual growth rate of 1.4 percent, and Imbler and Union were close behind with average annual growth rates of about 1.2 percent each. Union County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the combined result of a consistent natural increase and a net in-migration. The larger number of births relative to deaths has led to a natural increase (more births than deaths) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net in-migration fluctuated dramatically during the early years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been slightly more stable during recent years, accounting for the majority of Union County’s population increase. Total population in Union County as a whole as well as within some of its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the nearer-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the longer-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Steady increase in net in-migration is expected to offset the growing natural decrease, leading to relatively steady population growth over the forecast period. However, an aging population is expected to not only lead to an increase in deaths, but a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years will likely result in a long-term stabilization in the number of births

Coordinated Population Forecast for Umatilla County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

Umatilla County’s total population has grown steadily since 2000, with average annual growth rates near one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Hermiston, the most populous UGB, and Umatilla UGB posted the highest average annual growth rates at 2.1 and 2.8 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Umatilla County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of a steady natural increase and periods of substantial net in-migration. A larger number of births relative to deaths led to a natural increase (more births than deaths) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net in-migration fluctuated dramatically during the early and middle years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been slightly more stable during recent years, contributing to a population increase. Even so the natural increase continues to account for most of the population growth. Total population in Umatilla County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (2035-2066) (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to an increase in deaths. Even so, natural increase is expected to persist, combining with steady in-migration for continued strong population growth. Umatilla County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 13,300 over the next 19 years (2016- 2035) and by close to 36,800 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066). All sub-areas are expected to experience population growth during the forecast period

Coordinated Population Forecast for Wasco County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

Wasco County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). The Dalles UGB and the area outside UGBs posted the highest average annual growth rates, both at about 0.6 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period. Wasco County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of a substantial net in-migration and periods of small natural increases and decreases (Figure 12). While net in-migration fluctuated dramatically during the early years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been more stable during second half of the decade and the recent years, contributing to a population increase. Total population in Wasco County as a whole as well as within some of its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to a natural decrease (more deaths than births)—as well as a decline in net in-migration toward the end of the forecast. Even so, Wasco County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 4,400 over the next 19 years (2016-2035) and by more than 10,500 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066). The Dalles, Mosier, and the area outside UGBs are expected to grow the most of all of Wasco County’s sub-areas

Coordinated Population Forecast for Benton County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2017-2067

Different parts of the county experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Benton County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with an average annual growth rate of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. The Benton County portion of Albany and Adair Village posted the highest average annual growth rates at 2.4 and 4.7 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period while all other sub-areas experienced average annual growth rates at or below that of the county as a whole. Benton County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was largely the result of substantial net in-migration. An aging population not only led to an increase in deaths but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to fewer births in recent years. A larger number of births relative to deaths caused natural increase (more births than deaths) in every year from 2000 to 2015. While natural increase outweighed net in-migration during the early and late years of the last decade, in more recent years (2012-15) net in-migration has increased, far outpacing births (Figure 12). Total population in Benton County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a faster pace in the near-term (2017 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Benton County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 18,000 over the next 18 years (2017-2035) and by more than 33,000 over the entire 50 year forecast period (2017-2067). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth during the 2000s are expected to continue experiencing relatively strong growth rates during the forecast period

Coordinated Population Forecast for Yamhill County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2017-2067

Different parts of the county experience differing growth patterns. Local trends within the UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Yamhill County’s total population grew rapidly during the 2000s, with average annual growth rates above one and a half percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, most of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. With the exception of Amity, Sheridan, and Willamina, all other sub-areas grew at a faster rate than the county. Yamhill County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was largely the result of substantial net in-migration. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to fewer births in recent years. The larger number of births relative to deaths caused a natural increase (more births than deaths) in every year from 2000 to 2015. While net in-migration outweighed natural increase during the early and middle years of the last decade, the gap between these two numbers has narrowed more recently, slowing population growth at the turn of the decade. In more recent years (2014 and 2015) net in-migration has increased, bringing with it population growth (Figure 12). Total population in Yamhill County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2015 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to natural increase transitioning into natural decrease (more deaths than births) during the middle of the forecast horizon. As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Yamhill County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 28,500 over the next 18 years (2017-2035) and by more than 70,000 over the entire 50 year forecast period (2017-2067). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period

Coordinated Population Forecast for Linn County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2017-2067

Different parts of the county experience different growth patterns. Local trends within the UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Linn County’s total population has grown steadily since 2000, with an average annual growth rate of 1.2 percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). However, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth while others experienced opposite trends during the 2000s. Millersburg and Harrisburg posted the highest average annual growth rates at 7.1 and 2.6 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Concurrently, the Linn portions of Gates and Idanha, along with Waterloo, were the only sub-areas to experience negative average annual growth rates at -0.5, -3.9 and -0.4 percent, respectively. Linn County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was largely the result of substantial net in-migration. Meanwhile, an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women choosing to have fewer children and having them at older ages has led to fewer births in recent years. The larger number of births relative to deaths caused a natural increase (more births than deaths) in every year from 2000 to 2015. While net in-migration far outweighed natural increase during the bulk of the last decade, as net in-migration has slowed, the gap between these two components has diminished in recent years—thus slowing total population growth in the county (Figure 12). Total population in Linn County as a whole and in its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2017 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to transition into a natural decrease. As deaths outpace births, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Linn County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 22,800 over the next 18 years (2017-2035) and by more than 58,700 over the entire 50 year forecast period (2017-2067). Sub-areas that showed stronger population growth in the 2000s are generally expected to experience slower rates of population growth during the forecast period, while sub-areas that experienced negative growth rates are expected to experience very slight and steady positive growth rates. The area outside UGBs is the only sub-area that will experience a negative growth rate in the longer term