Enhancing Bayesian risk prediction for epidemics using contact tracing

Contact tracing data collected from disease outbreaks has received relatively little attention in the epidemic modelling literature because it is thought to be unreliable: infection sources might be wrongly attributed, or data might be missing due to resource contraints in the questionnaire exercise. Nevertheless, these data might provide a rich source of information on disease transmission rate. This paper presents novel methodology for combining contact tracing data with rate-based contact network data to improve posterior precision, and therefore predictive accuracy. We present an advancement in Bayesian inference for epidemics that assimilates these data, and is robust to partial contact tracing. Using a simulation study based on the British poultry industry, we show how the presence of contact tracing data improves posterior predictive accuracy, and can directly inform a more effective control strategy.Comment: 40 pages, 9 figures. Submitted to Biostatistic

Modeling of the HIV infection epidemic in the Netherlands: A multi-parameter evidence synthesis approach

Multi-parameter evidence synthesis (MPES) is receiving growing attention from the epidemiological community as a coherent and flexible analytical framework to accommodate a disparate body of evidence available to inform disease incidence and prevalence estimation. MPES is the statistical methodology adopted by the Health Protection Agency in the UK for its annual national assessment of the HIV epidemic, and is acknowledged by the World Health Organization and UNAIDS as a valuable technique for the estimation of adult HIV prevalence from surveillance data. This paper describes the results of utilizing a Bayesian MPES approach to model HIV prevalence in the Netherlands at the end of 2007, using an array of field data from different study designs on various population risk subgroups and with a varying degree of regional coverage. Auxiliary data and expert opinion were additionally incorporated to resolve issues arising from biased, insufficient or inconsistent evidence. This case study offers a demonstration of the ability of MPES to naturally integrate and critically reconcile disparate and heterogeneous sources of evidence, while producing reliable estimates of HIV prevalence used to support public health decision-making.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOAS488 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Synthesising evidence to estimate pandemic (2009) A/H1N1 influenza severity in 2009-2011

Knowledge of the severity of an influenza outbreak is crucial for informing and monitoring appropriate public health responses, both during and after an epidemic. However, case-fatality, case-intensive care admission and case-hospitalisation risks are difficult to measure directly. Bayesian evidence synthesis methods have previously been employed to combine fragmented, under-ascertained and biased surveillance data coherently and consistently, to estimate case-severity risks in the first two waves of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic experienced in England. We present in detail the complex probabilistic model underlying this evidence synthesis, and extend the analysis to also estimate severity in the third wave of the pandemic strain during the 2010/2011 influenza season. We adapt the model to account for changes in the surveillance data available over the three waves. We consider two approaches: (a) a two-stage approach using posterior distributions from the model for the first two waves to inform priors for the third wave model; and (b) a one-stage approach modelling all three waves simultaneously. Both approaches result in the same key conclusions: (1) that the age-distribution of the case-severity risks is "u"-shaped, with children and older adults having the highest severity; (2) that the age-distribution of the infection attack rate changes over waves, school-age children being most affected in the first two waves and the attack rate in adults over 25 increasing from the second to third waves; and (3) that when averaged over all age groups, case-severity appears to increase over the three waves. The extent to which the final conclusion is driven by the change in age-distribution of those infected over time is subject to discussion.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOAS775 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

A joint analysis of influenza-associated hospitalizations and mortality in Hong Kong, 1998–2013

published_or_final_versio

A joint analysis of influenza-associated hospitalizations and mortality in Hong Kong, 1998-2013.

Influenza viruses may cause severe human infections leading to hospitalization or death. Linear regression models were fitted to population-based data on hospitalizations and deaths. Surveillance data on influenza virus activity permitted inference on influenza-associated hospitalizations and deaths. The ratios of these estimates were used as a potential indicator of severity. Influenza was associated with 431 (95% CrI: 358-503) respiratory deaths and 12,700 (95% CrI: 11,700-13,700) respiratory hospitalizations per year. Majority of the excess deaths occurred in persons ≥65 y of age. The ratios of deaths to hospitalizations in adults ≥65 y were significantly higher for influenza A(H1N1) and A(H1N1)pdm09 compared to A(H3N2) and B. Substantial disease burden associated with influenza viruses were estimated in Hong Kong particularly among children and elderly in 1998-2013. Infections with influenza A(H1N1) was suggested to be more serious than A(H3N2) in older adults

HIV prevalence and undiagnosed infection among a community sample of gay and bisexual men in Scotland, 2005-2011: implications for HIV testing policy and prevention

<b>Objective</b><p></p> To examine HIV prevalence, HIV testing behaviour, undiagnosed infection and risk factors for HIV positivity among a community sample of gay men in Scotland.<p></p> <b>Methods</b><p></p> Cross-sectional survey of gay and bisexual men attending commercial gay venues in Glasgow and Edinburgh, Scotland with voluntary anonymous HIV testing of oral fluid samples in 2011. A response rate of 65.2% was achieved (1515 participants).<p></p> <b>Results</b><p></p> HIV prevalence (4.8%, 95% confidence interval, CI 3.8% to 6.2%) remained stable compared to previous survey years (2005 and 2008) and the proportion of undiagnosed infection among HIV-positive men (25.4%) remained similar to that recorded in 2008. Half of the participants who provided an oral fluid sample stated that they had had an HIV test in the previous 12 months; this proportion is significantly higher when compared to previous study years (50.7% versus 33.8% in 2005, p<0.001). Older age (>25 years) was associated with HIV positivity (1.8% in those <25 versus 6.4% in older ages group) as was a sexually transmitted infection (STI) diagnosis within the previous 12 months (adjusted odds ratio 2.13, 95% CI 1.09–4.14). There was no significant association between age and having an STI or age and any of the sexual behaviours recorded.<p></p> <b>Conclusion</b><p></p> HIV transmission continues to occur among gay and bisexual men in Scotland. Despite evidence of recent testing within the previous six months, suggesting a willingness to test, the current opt-out policy may have reached its limit with regards to maximising HIV test uptake. Novel strategies are required to improve regular testing opportunities and more frequent testing as there are implications for the use of other biomedical HIV interventions.<p></p&gt

Situation of HIV infections and STIs in the United Kingdom in 2007.

In the United Kingdom (UK) in 2007, an estimated 77,400 persons were living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) of whom 28% are unaware of their infection. A total of 7,734 persons were newly diagnosed with HIV infection in 2007, of which 31% were diagnosed late. This highlights the need for wider HIV testing, especially in those areas with a high diagnosed prevalence, as recommended in recent national guidelines. Among newly diagnosed cases of HIV in 2007, 41% acquired their infection through sex between men (four in five of whom acquired their infection in the UK) and 55% through heterosexual contact (four in five of whom acquired their infection abroad, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa). Young persons aged 16 to 24 years are disproportionally affected by sexually transmitted diseases (STIs) accounting for 65% of genital chlamydia infections, 50% of cases of genital warts and 50% of cases of gonorrhoea that were diagnosed in 2007