Grid Expansion, Power-To-Gas and Solar Power Imports - Multi-Scenario Analysis of Large Infrastructure Options for the Decarbonization of the European Energy System

Grid expansion measures, Power-To-Gas and solar power imports are frequently discussed technological options for integrating renewable energies into the energy system. Since this poses enormous economic and social challenges for the development of energy supply infrastructures, potential benefits must be analyzed for a broad spectrum of possible futures. This paper provides a comparative assessment of more than 50 European energy scenarios. Therefore, we vary parameters such as costs, weather data as well as restrictions for modelling interregional power flows. The results show that grid expansion plays an important role in most of scenarios for a cost-efficient and secure power supply

Exploring long-term strategies for the German Energy Transition - A Review of Multi-Sector Energy Scenarios

This article systematically compares 26 different scenarios of climate-friendly energy systems, aiming at a reduction of CO2 emissions of at least 90% for Germany in 2050. Technical strategies in terms of technology or energy carrier mixes in the end-use sectors industry, buildings, and transport as well as in the conversion sectors are examined. In addition, the consequences of those different strategies in terms of electricity demand, installed capacity for electricity generation, demand for synthetic fuels and gases (P2X), etc. are looked at. Furthermore, imports of electricity and P2X are compared. In conclusion, there is a wide range of transformation pathways that are projected for Germany, and there is far from consensus on how to technically achieve a reduction in CO2 emissions of at least 90% by 2050 in comparison to 1990 levels. This, in turn, illustrates that there is still much need for research and discussion to identify feasible and sustainable transformation strategies towards a 'net zero' energy system for Germany

Energy system transition pathways to meet the global electricity demand for ambitious climate targets and cost competitiveness.

This study presents a novel energy system modelling approach for analysis and comparison of global energy transition pathways for decarbonisation of the electricity sector. The results of the International Energy Agency (IEA), and the Teske/DLR scenarios are each reproduced. Additionally, five new energy transition trajectories, called LUT, are presented. The research examines the feasibility of each scenario across nine major regions in 5-year intervals, from 2015 to 2050, under a uniform modelling environment with identical technical and financial assumptions. The main differences between the energy transition paths are identified across: (1) the average electricity generation costs; (2) energy diversity; (3) system flexibility; (4) energy security; and, (5) transition dynamics. All LUT and Teske/DLR scenarios are transitioned to zero CO2 emissions and a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 at the latest. Results reveal that the LUT scenarios are the least-cost pathways, while the Teske/DLR scenarios are centred around energy diversity with slightly higher LCOE of around 10-20%. The IEA shares similarities with the Teske/DLR scenarios in terms of energy diversity yet depends on continued use of fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage, and nuclear power. The IEA scenario based on current governmental policies present a worst-case situation regarding CO2 emissions reduction, climate change and overall system costs

A Pathway for the German Energy Sector Compatible with a 1.5°C Carbon Budget

We present an energy transition pathway constrained by a total CO2 budget of 7 Gt allocated to the German energy system after 2020, the Budget Scenario (BS). We apply a normative backcasting approach for scenario building based on historical data and assumptions from existing scenario studies. The modeling approach combines a comprehensive energy system model (ESM) with REMix—a cost optimization model for power and heat that explicitly incorporates sector coupling. To achieve the necessary CO2 reduction, the scenario focuses on electrifying all end use sectors until 2030, adding 1.5–2 million electric vehicles to the road per year. In buildings, 400,000–500,000 heat pumps would be installed annually by 2030, and the share of district heating would double until 2050. In the scenario, coal needs to be phased out by 2030. Wind and Photovoltaic (PV) capacities would need to more than double to 290 GW by 2030 and reach 500 GW by 2050. The BS results indicate that a significant acceleration of the energy transition is necessary before 2030 and that this higher pace must be maintained thereafter until 2050

Leitstudie 2010

Strategien zu erarbeiten, die aufzeigen, wie das langfristige Klimaschutzziel 2050 in Deutschland erreicht werden kann, ist das oberste Ziel von Studien, die seit gut einem Jahrzehnt vom DLR-ITT, Abteilung Systemanalyse und Technikbewertung mit wechselnden Projektpartnern für das BMU und das UBA durchgeführt werden. In der Leitstudie 2010 entstanden auf der Basis differenzierter und aktualisierter Potenzialabschätzungen, die technische, strukturelle und ökologische Kriterien berücksichtigen, und detaillierten Technik- und Kostenanalysen zu den Einzeltechnologien der Erneuerbaren verschiedene Szenarien ihres möglichen langfristigen Ausbaus in Wechselwirkung mit den übrigen Teilen der Energieversorgung in Deutschland. Für die Leitstudie 2010 haben die Projektpartner DLR, Stuttgart und Fraunhofer-IWES, Kassel erstmals mittels geeigneter Modelle eine vollständige dynamische und teilweise räumlich aufgegliederte Simulation der Stromversorgung durchgeführt. Außerdem wird der Untersuchungsraum für diese Simulation auf ganz Europa (einschließlich einiger nordafrikanischer Länder) ausgedehnt, um die Wechselwirkungen eines nationalen Umbaus der Energieversorgung mit der Entwicklung in Nachbarregionen erfassen zu können

Future renewable energy targets in the EU: Impacts on the German transport

The transport sector is at the center of discussions on accelerating the energy transition due to its still increasing contribution to greenhouse gas emissions worldwide; therefore, the EU has set binding targets for the use of renewable energy in transport through the Renewable Energy Directive. To analyze the economic impact of these targets, we developed an optimization model that considers bio- and electricity-based fuel options, various transport sectors, and future policy requirements. Our study of the German transport sector found that imported alternative fuels play a key role in reducing fossil fuel usage. We also identify two technological and managerial obstacles: policymakers need to prioritize the rapid electrification of vehicles in the near future; and in the distant future, more attention is needed in research for new technologies in commercial transport. Although our findings are tailored to Germany, the employed approach can be transferred to other models and countries

Multi-Sektor-Kopplung - Modellbasierte Analyse der Integration erneuerbarer Stromerzeugung durch die Kopplung der Stromversorgung mit dem Wärme-, Gas- und Verkehrssektor

Im Projekt MuSeKo wird der kombinierte Einsatz unterschiedlicher Flexibilitäten und Sektorenkopplungen in einem künftigen Energiesystem mit einem hohen Anteil erneuerbarer Energien modellbasiert untersucht. Die Analyse erfolgt mit einem zeitlich und räumlich aufgelösten, techno-ökonomischen Ansatz. Anhand dessen Ergebnissen werden unterschiedliche energiewirtschaftliche Rahmenbedingungen im Hinblick auf Investitionen und den Anlageneinsatz bewertet. Der Neuheitswert des Projekts liegt einerseits in der Fokussierung auf die Ausgestaltung der Kopplung von Strom- und Gassystem und andererseits auf der Kombination der gesamtwirtschaftlichen mit der betriebswirtschaftlichen Perspektive. Die Projektergebnisse zeigen einerseits die Chancen einer engeren Verzahnung der Strom-, Wärme- und Gasversorgung, und andererseits die damit einhergehenden regulatorischen Herausforderungen für die Anreizung systemdienlicher Investitionen und Anlageneinsätze. Die Arbeiten bieten in den erweiterten Methoden und erhobenen Daten eine wichtige Grundlage zur weiteren Erforschung der Umsetzung der flexiblen Sektorenkopplung in der Energiewende

Scenario Definition and consistent Parametrisation of all Models

The project Net-Zero-2050, Cluster I of the Helmholtz Climate Initiative (HI-CAM) targets net zero CO2 emissions by the year 2050 for Germany. Here it specifically focusses on quantifying carbon emissions from the energy system via an integrative scenario modeling project P1.2 Energy Scenario Quantification. Our approach advances and combines models and methods for integrated scenario analyses with the focus on net zero emissions pathways. This integrates the overall assessment of possible technical options, their contributions to GHG mitigation, and their systemic interactions with a combination of different quantita-tive and qualitative assessment criteria. This first deliverable provides therefore an overview of methods and approaches applied within the P1.2 project on quantitative scenario analysis