Site disturbance and tree decline

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A pedagogic appraisal of the Priority Heuristic

We have explored how science and mathematics teachers made decisions when confronted with a dilemma in which a fictitious young woman, Deborah, may choose to have an operation that might address a painful spinal condition. We sought to explore the extent to which psychological heuristic models, in particular the Priority Heuristic, might successfully describe the decision-making process of these teachers and how an analysis of the role of personal and emotional factors in shaping the decision-making process might inform pedagogical design. A novel aspect of this study is that the setting in which the decision-making process is examined contrasts sharply with those used in psychological experiments. We found that to some extent, even in this contrasting setting, the Priority Heuristic could describe these teachers' decision-making. Further analysis of the transcripts yielded some insights into limitations on scope as well the richness and complexity in how personal factors were brought to bear. We see these limitations as design opportunities for educational intervention

Focused Exhumation Along Megathrust Splay Faults in Prince William Sound, Alaska

Megathrust splay faults are a common feature of accretionary prisms and can be important for generating tsunamis during some subduction zone earthquakes. Here we provide new evidence from Alaska that megathrust splay faults have been conduits for focused exhumation in the last 5 Ma. In most of central Prince William Sound, published and new low-temperature thermochronology data indicate little to no permanent rock uplift over tens of thousands of earthquake cycles. However, in southern Prince William Sound on Montague Island, apatite (U–Th)/He ages are as young as 1.1 Ma indicating focused and rapid rock uplift. Montague Island lies in the hanging wall of the Patton Bay megathrust splay fault system, which ruptured during the 1964 M9.2 earthquake and produced ∼9 m of vertical uplift. Recent geochronology and thermochronology studies show rapid exhumation within the last 5 Ma in a pattern similar to the coseismic uplift in the 1964 earthquake, demonstrating that splay fault slip is a long term (3–5 my) phenomena. The region of slower exhumation correlates with rocks that are older and metamorphosed and constitute a mechanically strong backstop. The region of rapid exhumation consists of much younger and weakly metamorphosed rocks, which we infer are mechanically weak. The region of rapid exhumation is separated from the region of slow exhumation by the newly identified Montague Strait Fault. New sparker high-resolution bathymetry, seismic reflection profiles, and a 2012 Mw4.8 earthquake show this feature as a 75-km-long high-angle active normal fault. There are numerous smaller active normal(?) faults in the region between the Montague Strait Fault and the splay faults. We interpret this hanging wall extension as developing between the rapidly uplifting sliver of younger and weaker rocks on Montague Island from the essentially fixed region to the north. Deep seismic reflection profiles show the splay faults root into the subduction megathrust where there is probable underplating. Thus the exhumation and extension in the hanging wall are likely driven by underplating along the megathrust décollement, thickening in the overriding plate and a change in rheology at the Montague Strait Fault to form a structural backstop. A comparison with other megathrust splay faults around the world shows they have significant variability in their characteristics, and the conditions for their formation are not particularly unique

Low dose Btk inhibitors selectively block platelet activation by CLEC-2

Inhibitors of the tyrosine kinase Btk have been proposed as novel antiplatelet agents. In this study we show that low concentrations of the Btk inhibitor ibrutinib block CLEC-2-mediated activation and tyrosine phosphorylation including Syk and PLCγ2 in human platelets. Activation is also blocked in patients with X-linked agammaglobulinaemia (XLA) caused by a deficiency or absence of Btk. In contrast, the response to GPVI is delayed in the presence of low concentrations of ibrutinib or in patients with XLA, and tyrosine phosphorylation of Syk is preserved. A similar set of results is seen with the second-generation inhibitor, acalabrutinib. The differential effect of Btk inhibition in CLEC-2 relative to GPVI signalling is explained by the positive feedback role involving Btk itself, as well as ADP and thromboxane A2 mediated activation of P2Y12 and TP receptors, respectively. This feedback role is not seen in mouse platelets and, consistent with this, CLEC-2-mediated activation is blocked by high but not by low concentrations of ibrutinib. Nevertheless, thrombosis was absent in 8 out of 13 mice treated with ibrutinib. These results show that Btk inhibitors selectively block activation of human platelets by CLEC-2 relative to GPVI suggesting that they can be used at ‘low dose’ in patients to target CLEC-2 in thrombo-inflammatory disease

Unexpected decline in tuberculosis cases coincident with economic recession -- United States, 2009

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Since 1953, through the cooperation of state and local health departments, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has collected information on incident cases of tuberculosis (TB) disease in the United States. In 2009, TB case rates declined -11.4%, compared to an average annual -3.8% decline since 2000. The unexpectedly large decline raised concerns that TB cases may have gone unreported. To address the unexpected decline, we examined trends from multiple sources on TB treatment initiation, medication sales, and laboratory and genotyping data on culture-positive TB.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We analyzed 142,174 incident TB cases reported to the U. S. National Tuberculosis Surveillance System (NTSS) during January 1, 2000-December 31, 2009; TB control program data from 59 public health reporting areas; self-reported data from 50 CDC-funded public health laboratories; monthly electronic prescription claims for new TB therapy prescriptions; and complete genotyping results available for NTSS cases. Accounting for prior trends using regression and time-series analyses, we calculated the deviation between observed and expected TB cases in 2009 according to patient and clinical characteristics, and assessed at what point in time the deviation occurred.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The overall deviation in TB cases in 2009 was -7.9%, with -994 fewer cases reported than expected (<it>P </it>< .001). We ruled out evidence of surveillance underreporting since declines were seen in states that used new software for case reporting in 2009 as well as states that did not, and we found no cases unreported to CDC in our examination of over 5400 individual line-listed reports in 11 areas. TB cases decreased substantially among both foreign-born and U.S.-born persons. The unexpected decline began in late 2008 or early 2009, and may have begun to reverse in late 2009. The decline was greater in terms of case counts among foreign-born than U.S.-born persons; among the foreign-born, the declines were greatest in terms of percentage deviation from expected among persons who had been in the United States less than 2 years. Among U.S.-born persons, the declines in percentage deviation from expected were greatest among homeless persons and substance users. Independent information systems (NTSS, TB prescription claims, and public health laboratories) reported similar patterns of declines. Genotyping data did not suggest sudden decreases in recent transmission.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our assessments show that the decline in reported TB was not an artifact of changes in surveillance methods; rather, similar declines were found through multiple data sources. While the steady decline of TB cases before 2009 suggests ongoing improvement in TB control, we were not able to identify any substantial change in TB control activities or TB transmission that would account for the abrupt decline in 2009. It is possible that other multiple causes coincident with economic recession in the United States, including decreased immigration and delayed access to medical care, could be related to TB declines. Our findings underscore important needs in addressing health disparities as we move towards TB elimination in the United States.</p

A year of genomic surveillance reveals how the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic unfolded in Africa.

The progression of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic in Africa has so far been heterogeneous, and the full impact is not yet well understood. In this study, we describe the genomic epidemiology using a dataset of 8746 genomes from 33 African countries and two overseas territories. We show that the epidemics in most countries were initiated by importations predominantly from Europe, which diminished after the early introduction of international travel restrictions. As the pandemic progressed, ongoing transmission in many countries and increasing mobility led to the emergence and spread within the continent of many variants of concern and interest, such as B.1.351, B.1.525, A.23.1, and C.1.1. Although distorted by low sampling numbers and blind spots, the findings highlight that Africa must not be left behind in the global pandemic response, otherwise it could become a source for new variants

Multiorgan MRI findings after hospitalisation with COVID-19 in the UK (C-MORE): a prospective, multicentre, observational cohort study

Introduction: The multiorgan impact of moderate to severe coronavirus infections in the post-acute phase is still poorly understood. We aimed to evaluate the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities after hospitalisation with COVID-19, evaluate their determinants, and explore associations with patient-related outcome measures. Methods: In a prospective, UK-wide, multicentre MRI follow-up study (C-MORE), adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital following COVID-19 who were included in Tier 2 of the Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) and contemporary controls with no evidence of previous COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibody negative) underwent multiorgan MRI (lungs, heart, brain, liver, and kidneys) with quantitative and qualitative assessment of images and clinical adjudication when relevant. Individuals with end-stage renal failure or contraindications to MRI were excluded. Participants also underwent detailed recording of symptoms, and physiological and biochemical tests. The primary outcome was the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities (two or more organs) relative to controls, with further adjustments for potential confounders. The C-MORE study is ongoing and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04510025. Findings: Of 2710 participants in Tier 2 of PHOSP-COVID, 531 were recruited across 13 UK-wide C-MORE sites. After exclusions, 259 C-MORE patients (mean age 57 years [SD 12]; 158 [61%] male and 101 [39%] female) who were discharged from hospital with PCR-confirmed or clinically diagnosed COVID-19 between March 1, 2020, and Nov 1, 2021, and 52 non-COVID-19 controls from the community (mean age 49 years [SD 14]; 30 [58%] male and 22 [42%] female) were included in the analysis. Patients were assessed at a median of 5·0 months (IQR 4·2–6·3) after hospital discharge. Compared with non-COVID-19 controls, patients were older, living with more obesity, and had more comorbidities. Multiorgan abnormalities on MRI were more frequent in patients than in controls (157 [61%] of 259 vs 14 [27%] of 52; p&lt;0·0001) and independently associated with COVID-19 status (odds ratio [OR] 2·9 [95% CI 1·5–5·8]; padjusted=0·0023) after adjusting for relevant confounders. Compared with controls, patients were more likely to have MRI evidence of lung abnormalities (p=0·0001; parenchymal abnormalities), brain abnormalities (p&lt;0·0001; more white matter hyperintensities and regional brain volume reduction), and kidney abnormalities (p=0·014; lower medullary T1 and loss of corticomedullary differentiation), whereas cardiac and liver MRI abnormalities were similar between patients and controls. Patients with multiorgan abnormalities were older (difference in mean age 7 years [95% CI 4–10]; mean age of 59·8 years [SD 11·7] with multiorgan abnormalities vs mean age of 52·8 years [11·9] without multiorgan abnormalities; p&lt;0·0001), more likely to have three or more comorbidities (OR 2·47 [1·32–4·82]; padjusted=0·0059), and more likely to have a more severe acute infection (acute CRP &gt;5mg/L, OR 3·55 [1·23–11·88]; padjusted=0·025) than those without multiorgan abnormalities. Presence of lung MRI abnormalities was associated with a two-fold higher risk of chest tightness, and multiorgan MRI abnormalities were associated with severe and very severe persistent physical and mental health impairment (PHOSP-COVID symptom clusters) after hospitalisation. Interpretation: After hospitalisation for COVID-19, people are at risk of multiorgan abnormalities in the medium term. Our findings emphasise the need for proactive multidisciplinary care pathways, with the potential for imaging to guide surveillance frequency and therapeutic stratification

The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance.

Investment in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequencing in Africa over the past year has led to a major increase in the number of sequences that have been generated and used to track the pandemic on the continent, a number that now exceeds 100,000 genomes. Our results show an increase in the number of African countries that are able to sequence domestically and highlight that local sequencing enables faster turnaround times and more-regular routine surveillance. Despite limitations of low testing proportions, findings from this genomic surveillance study underscore the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic and illuminate the distinct dispersal dynamics of variants of concern-particularly Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron-on the continent. Sustained investment for diagnostics and genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve while the continent faces many emerging and reemerging infectious disease threats. These investments are crucial for pandemic preparedness and response and will serve the health of the continent well into the 21st century